Jose Rengel — OGILVIE

Jose Rengel P ACL Giants

Age 20 LHP 5'11" / 204 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%18.7%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	11	11	39	161	38	12	1	100%	3.5	16.0%	9.3%	6.7%	0.9%	4.42	3.43	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	11	11	39	161	38	12	1	100%	3.5	16.0%	9.3%	6.7%	0.9%	4.42	3.43	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	11	11	39	161	38	12	1	100%	3.5	23.6%	7.5%	16.1%	0.6%	4.42	2.40	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	15	5	48	239	47	37	2	33%	3.2	13.4%	19.4%	-6.0%	1.0%	7.50	4.97	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	15	5	48	239	47	37	2	33%	3.2	13.4%	19.4%	-6.0%	1.0%	7.50	4.97	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	15	5	48	239	47	37	2	33%	3.2	19.7%	15.5%	4.2%	0.8%	7.50	4.00	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	13	0	26	128	28	12	0	0%	2.0	14.9%	11.7%	3.2%	0.0%	7.62	3.33	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	13	0	26	128	28	12	0	0%	2.0	14.9%	11.7%	3.2%	0.0%	7.62	3.33	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	13	0	26	128	28	12	0	0%	2.0	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	0.0%	7.62	2.33	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	14	0	20	95	16	12	4	0%	1.4	11.5%	15.8%	-4.3%	5.9%	6.41	7.37	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	14	0	20	95	16	12	4	0%	1.4	11.5%	15.8%	-4.3%	5.9%	6.41	7.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	SF	14	0	20	95	16	12	4	0%	1.4	16.8%	12.6%	4.2%	4.2%	6.41	5.59	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SF	43	0	45	192	38	24	5	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.4%	7.5%	2.8%	4.99	4.90	-0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	SF	45	0	48	201	43	22	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	2.7%	4.74	4.60	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	SF	47	0	50	209	46	21	6	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.2%	11.8%	2.7%	4.53	4.40	+0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	SF	48	0	51	214	48	21	6	0%	1.1	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	2.7%	4.37	4.27	+0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	SF	49	0	51	217	50	20	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.3%	13.6%	2.7%	4.26	4.19	+0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	SF	49	0	51	217	50	20	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	2.7%	4.20	4.16	+0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	SF	21	0	22	93	18	12	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.4%	7.5%	2.8%	4.99	4.90	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	SF	33	0	35	148	31	16	4	0%	1.1	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	2.7%	4.74	4.60	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	SF	40	0	42	177	39	18	5	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.2%	11.8%	2.7%	4.53	4.40	+0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	SF	43	0	45	190	43	18	5	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	2.7%	4.37	4.27	+0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	SF	45	0	47	198	46	19	5	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.3%	13.6%	2.7%	4.26	4.19	+0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	SF	46	0	48	203	47	19	5	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	2.7%	4.20	4.16	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		228	0	239	1009	224	102	27	0%	1.0	22.2%	10.1%	12.1%	2.7%	4.45	3.98	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	85	23	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.1%	12.1%	2.7%	4.45	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		53	16	132	623	88	91	9	30%	2.5	14.1%	14.6%	-0.6%	1.5%	6.46	4.60	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	24	200	942	133	138	14	30%	2.5	14.1%	14.6%	-0.6%	1.5%	6.46	4.60	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Rengel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	18.7%	14.0%	2.8%	—	4.63	21.1%	9.8%	143	-0.59	—	—	—
Daniel Gonzalez L 2022 · 5.66 FIP	20	SU	5.66	16.3%	14.0%	3.9%	.310	4.44	23.2%	1.7%	55	-1.22	4.34	136	82
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	82
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	80
Drew Harrington L 2016 · 4.18 FIP	21	SU	4.18	15.7%	9.6%	2.1%	.295	4.14	12.5%	5.4%	175	-0.04	3.17	190	80
Enrique Perez L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SU	4.81	16.2%	14.3%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	133	79
Zach Matson L 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	14.4%	10.9%	2.0%	.319	4.72	25.2%	10.0%	68	+0.33	4.39	187	78
Brayan De Paula L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	16.9%	16.4%	4.1%	.272	4.58	20.9%	6.1%	59	-1.42	3.57	243	78
Matt Walker L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	16.7%	13.3%	1.5%	.324	4.62	15.5%	4.0%	94	+0.41	4.21	156	78
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	77
Brayan Restituyo L 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.6%	14.6%	2.5%	.397	4.46	18.4%	6.3%	144	-0.35	3.66	239	77
Vance Tatum L 2016 · 5.04 FIP	21	SU	5.04	17.2%	9.7%	3.9%	.319	5.06	15.6%	2.3%	85	+0.02	4.90	116	77
Jake Higginbotham L 2018 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	17.2%	10.6%	3.9%	.256	4.77	18.8%	6.4%	59	-0.38	3.30	335	77
Anfernny Reyes L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	19	SU	4.98	21.6%	13.6%	3.6%	.282	4.34	21.0%	1.8%	99	-0.64	2.89	175	77
Oriel Castro L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	20	SW	4.95	19.6%	19.0%	2.0%	.390	5.41	16.3%	-0.1%	41	+0.46	4.63	129	77
Davis Schwab L 2019 · 4.46 FIP	22	SU	4.46	13.6%	13.8%	1.4%	.368	5.22	18.9%	-0.8%	92	+0.76	4.46	114	76
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.40	163	76
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	76
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	76
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	76
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	45	21.8%	10.5%	1.05	4.55
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68