Jose Rengel
P
ACL Giants
+0.2
WAR
Age 20
LHP
5'11" / 204 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.4 · 2029
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.9%
IP29
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Giants Orange | 11 | 11 | 39 | 161 | 38 | 12 | 1 | 16.0% | 9.3% | 1.0% | 4.42 | 3.45 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Giants | 15 | 5 | 48 | 239 | 47 | 37 | 2 | 13.4% | 19.4% | 1.0% | 7.50 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Giants | 13 | 0 | 26 | 128 | 28 | 12 | 0 | 14.9% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 7.62 | 3.33 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | SF | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 27 | 12 | 3 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | SF | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | SF | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | SF | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | SF | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 24.8% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | SF | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.86 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | SF | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.84 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | SF | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.85 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | SF | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | SF | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 25.2% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | SF | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 25.0% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 3.95 | 3.98 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | SF | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 24.7% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | SF | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 16 | 113 | 528 | 77 | 76 | 4 | 14.6% | 14.4% | 0.7% | 6.47 | 4.10 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 28 | 200 | 937 | 137 | 135 | 7 | 14.6% | 14.4% | 0.7% | 6.47 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Rengel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.14 | 23.4% | 14.4% | 95 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Pablo Aldonis L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.29 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .324 | 2.64 | 21.9% | 13.1% | 68 | -1.65 | 1.89 | 108 | 89 |
| Denny Bentley L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 89 |
| Johan Simon L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.44 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.3% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.6% | 1.1% | 41 | +1.06 | 3.44 | 123 | 87 |
| Benony Robles L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .262 | 5.08 | 19.2% | 4.5% | 135 | +1.45 | 3.63 | 271 | 87 |
| Abdallah Aris L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 109 | 86 |
| Blake Townsend L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.97 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.98 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.01 | 3.33 | 200 | 86 |
| Ronnie Glenn L 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.47 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .330 | 5.04 | 11.1% | -2.6% | 171 | +1.57 | 3.47 | 212 | 86 |
| Jagger Haynes L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.27 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 2.2% | .303 | 5.33 | 18.5% | 2.8% | 214 | +1.06 | 4.27 | 239 | 85 |
| Ryan Rolison L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.88 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .200 | 4.33 | 19.1% | 11.5% | 191 | +0.45 | 3.86 | 327 | 84 |
| Miguel Pozo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.36 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .312 | 4.96 | 16.5% | -5.7% | 24 | +1.60 | 3.36 | 110 | 84 |
| Hogan Harris L 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 84 |
| Connor Curlis L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.49 | 19.3% | 10.8% | 1.2% | .306 | 6.07 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 172 | +2.58 | 3.49 | 309 | 84 |
| Fernando Sanchez L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.91 | 24.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.94 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 213 | +0.03 | 3.08 | 266 | 84 |
| Eudis Idrogo L 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.37 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .236 | 3.85 | 13.5% | 7.7% | 319 | +0.48 | 3.37 | 364 | 84 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.97 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.2% | .347 | 4.00 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.03 | 3.74 | 572 | 84 |
| Marlon Perez L 2028 · 3.31 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.31 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .250 | 4.12 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 103 | +0.81 | 3.31 | 145 | 84 |
| Antonio Jimenez L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.48 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .292 | 4.38 | 19.4% | 7.8% | 248 | +0.90 | 3.34 | 422 | 84 |
| Josh Hendrickson L 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.81 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .250 | 4.70 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.89 | 3.81 | 255 | 83 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.45 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 83 |
| Thomas Ireland L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.64 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .286 | 3.46 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 142 | -1.18 | 2.95 | 186 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $8M | +$4M | ||