Juan Rojas

SS FCL Astros

Age 19 L/R 6'1" / 190 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1222ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Astros Or…	199	.286/.464/.374	2	11	67	—	.186/.332/.236
2026	18	ROKHOU	162	.252/.442/.357	1	7	72	—	.205/.344/.291
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBHOU	272	.204/.293/.281	2	5	66	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBHOU	47	.212/.301/.301	1	1	72	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBHOU	114	.216/.305/.315	2	2	77	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

BB%84

wRC+76

Chase%68

wOBA64

Z-Con%52

Speed48

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 92%

CompsYeniel Laboy (age 20) · Jeremy Arocho (age 19) · Victor Arias (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 84 proj PA

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .291 / .278

PA84

HR1

K%27

BB%10

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	199	147	42	5	1	2	44	37	5	11	5	286	464	374	838	88	360	19	22	389	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	162	115	29	7	1	1	34	36	5	7	4	252	442	357	798	104	346	22	21	359	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	199	161	30	3	1	1	30	45	5	11	5	186	332	236	568	50	236	23	15	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	162	127	26	6	1	1	22	52	5	7	4	205	344	291	635	87	283	32	14	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	199	161	30	3	1	1	30	45	5	11	5	186	332	236	568	50	246	23	15	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	—	199	147	42	5	1	2	44	37	5	11	5	286	464	374	838	88	360	19	22	389	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	162	127	26	6	1	1	22	52	5	7	4	205	344	291	635	87	325	32	14	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	162	115	29	7	1	1	34	36	5	7	4	252	442	357	798	104	346	22	21	359	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	199	162	30	3	1	1	30	45	5	11	5	185	332	235	566	49	236	23	15	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	162	134	26	6	1	1	22	52	5	7	4	194	344	276	620	82	283	32	14	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	199	162	30	3	1	1	30	45	5	11	5	185	332	235	566	49	236	23	15	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	162	134	26	6	1	1	22	52	5	7	4	194	344	276	620	82	283	32	14	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	272	239	48	8	2	2	27	74	4	5	1	204	293	281	574	77	282	27	10	266	66	-11	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	136	120	25	4	1	2	13	37	2	3	1	209	299	297	596	88	284	27	10	275	72	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2029	21	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	236	208	45	8	2	3	23	62	3	5	2	213	303	311	614	97	286	26	10	282	77	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	349	307	66	11	2	5	34	91	5	8	2	217	306	322	628	105	287	26	10	287	80	-8	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	422	372	82	14	3	7	41	109	6	9	3	220	308	330	639	110	288	26	10	291	83	-8	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	469	413	93	16	3	9	46	120	7	10	3	222	310	337	647	115	289	26	10	294	85	-8	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.8
2033	25	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	498	439	98	17	3	9	49	127	7	11	3	223	310	339	649	116	289	26	10	295	86	-8	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.9
2034	26	MLB MLE	HOU	56%	512	450	100	17	3	10	50	131	7	11	3	223	310	339	649	116	289	26	10	295	86	-9	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.9
2035	27	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	516	453	100	17	3	9	51	133	7	11	4	222	309	336	646	115	288	26	10	294	85	-9	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.8
2036	28	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	513	451	99	17	3	9	50	133	7	10	4	220	307	332	639	112	288	26	10	291	83	-10	+0	-1	+5	+11	0.6
2037	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	502	441	96	16	3	9	49	132	7	9	4	218	305	326	630	108	286	26	10	288	81	-11	+0	-1	+5	+11	0.4
2038	30	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	490	434	94	16	3	8	47	130	6	8	4	215	301	318	620	103	285	27	10	283	78	-13	+0	-2	+5	+11	0.1
2039	31	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	475	421	89	15	3	7	45	128	6	7	5	211	297	309	605	98	282	27	9	278	74	-15	-1	-3	+5	+10	-0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	47	41	9	2	0	1	5	13	1	1	0	212	301	301	602	90	288	28	11	277	72	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	114	100	23	4	1	2	11	30	2	2	1	216	305	315	620	99	290	26	10	284	77	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	189	165	37	7	1	3	19	49	3	4	1	220	308	325	634	106	291	26	10	289	80	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	239	211	47	8	2	4	23	62	3	5	2	223	310	334	644	111	292	26	10	293	83	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2032	24	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	265	233	53	9	2	5	26	68	4	6	2	225	312	341	653	116	293	26	10	297	85	-5	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2033	25	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	281	248	56	10	2	5	27	72	4	6	2	225	313	342	654	117	293	26	10	297	86	-5	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	HOU	56%	289	255	57	10	2	5	28	74	4	6	2	225	313	342	655	117	293	26	10	297	86	-5	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	286	252	56	10	2	5	28	74	4	6	2	224	312	340	651	115	293	26	10	296	85	-5	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	282	248	56	10	2	5	28	73	4	5	2	222	310	335	645	113	292	26	10	293	83	-6	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.3
2037	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	268	237	52	9	2	4	26	70	3	5	2	220	307	329	636	109	291	26	10	290	81	-6	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2038	30	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	258	228	49	9	1	4	25	68	3	4	2	217	304	322	625	104	289	26	10	286	78	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.0
2039	31	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	269	238	50	9	1	4	26	72	3	4	3	213	299	312	611	99	286	27	10	280	74	-8	-0	-2	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2787	2456	545	97	18	47	272	725	38	54	21	222	309	333	643	112	294	26	10	291	81	-60	+2	-4	+30	+60	2.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	127	23	4	11	63	169	9	13	5	222	309	333	642	112	293	26	10	291	81	-14	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	5563	4872	1059	180	35	90	558	1453	81	122	47	217	308	324	632	107	288	26	10	287	81	-115	+6	-7	+56	+113	5.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	124	21	4	11	65	170	9	14	5	218	307	327	634	109	288	26	10	287	81	-14	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Astros · 162 PAwOBA .358 → .274 (−84)K% 22.2% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	32.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.99%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	13.31%
HBP% /PA	3.09%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	2.27%
Singles /BIP	25.32%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.013	×1.022	21.50%
Doubles /BIP	8.86%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.013	×1.022	6.61%
Triples /BIP	1.27%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.013	×1.022	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	1.27%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	1.01%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .358 → .274; ISO .104 → .085; BABIP .346 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Astros Orange · 199 PAwOBA .385 → .267 (−118)K% 18.6% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.59%	÷1.009	×1.220	—	—	22.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.61%	÷1.014	×0.700	—	×1.022	15.26%
HBP% /PA	2.51%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.80%
Singles /BIP	30.91%	÷0.985	×0.680	×0.962	×1.022	21.00%
Doubles /BIP	4.55%	÷1.091	×0.600	×0.962	×1.022	2.46%
Triples /BIP	0.91%	÷0.900	×0.600	×0.962	×1.022	0.60%
Home runs /BIP	1.82%	÷1.492	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.59%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 198, 1B 97, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .385 → .267; ISO .088 → .044; BABIP .360 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#6Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.3	2,871	48	57	219	303	328	+31	+21	5.0	4.6
/162	664	11	13	+7.1	+4.9	1.2	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Rojas (OGILVIE)	19	45	25	55	60	202/291/278	77	282	1	2	27%	10%	66	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yeniel Laboy 2024 · A	20	43	37→30	52→45	47	200/283/268	68	287	5	8	29%	9%	61	-1.5	199/274/263	64	285	4	7	29%	8%	55	-1.9	166/248/183	18	241	0	3	28%	9%	26	-1.3
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→44	38→30	53→60	41	204/261/287	83	286	4	12	29%	6%	55	-1.9	223/282/290	67	291	2	11	22%	7%	64	-1.3	230/324/274	45	312	0	26	23%	11%	74	-0.3
✕Victor Arias 2023 · A	19	43→50	37→45	49→50	47	199/284/273	74	302	3	11	32%	10%	62	-1.4	217/300/325	108	317	8	16	31%	9%	80	-0.2	226/304/342	116	321	9	18	30%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Elis Cuevas 2024 · A	19	41	37→40	51→65	45	195/270/275	80	270	3	14	27%	8%	57	-1.8	199/275/294	95	266	9	32	27%	7%	63	-1.3	188/268/283	95	252	12	43	29%	7%	56	-0.8
✕James Beresford 2008 · A	19	48→58	34→30	49→45	43	224/270/272	48	290	2	10	23%	6%	54	-2.0	240/287/281	41	306	1	7	20%	6%	63	-1.4	286/319/337	51	336	1	6	15%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Michael De La Cruz 2015 · A	19	41	35→40	46→50	53	191/283/246	55	262	2	10	26%	11%	55	-1.9	187/254/251	64	288	3	9	33%	8%	45	-2.7	169/235/228	58	266	2	10	34%	7%	30	-1.3
✕Livan Soto 2019 · A	19	46→56	34→40	47→50	50	211/277/260	49	262	1	10	19%	8%	55	-1.9	195/255/257	62	255	4	9	23%	7%	47	-2.6	246/319/331	85	322	6	8	24%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Bengie González 2009 · A	19	42→52	34→40	51→50	47	195/267/246	51	274	2	11	28%	8%	49	-2.4	210/263/256	46	284	1	12	25%	6%	49	-2.4	252/303/348	96	305	4	12	18%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Jakey Josepha 2023 · A	19	42→45	35→40	52→55	50	198/273/252	54	267	3	12	25%	9%	53	-2.1	193/262/270	77	318	6	13	38%	8%	53	-2.1	177/248/256	79	304	7	17	41%	8%	43	-1.2
✕Kelvin Alarcon 2019 · A	20	43	35→30	48→55	54	197/295/255	58	274	3	8	26%	11%	63	-1.4	211/273/274	63	328	3	8	33%	7%	57	-1.8	202/264/238	35	318	0	8	34%	8%	43	-0.6
✕Ayendy Perez 2013 · A	19	42	34→30	48→60	51	196/282/251	55	252	1	12	21%	9%	57	-1.8	214/281/270	56	267	1	24	18%	8%	59	-1.7	224/286/275	51	279	0	33	18%	7%	59	-0.6
✕Eliezer Álvarez 2014 · A	19	36→46	37→45	50→55	46	176/242/253	76	228	4	12	24%	7%	41	-3.0	231/280/336	105	295	5	13	22%	6%	74	-0.6	254/307/364	110	341	6	19	26%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Javier Herrera 2024 · A	19	38	39→40	51→55	45	184/262/268	84	272	6	10	32%	9%	53	-2.1	204/298/290	86	279	5	15	26%	11%	71	-0.8	210/307/297	87	289	5	18	26%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2022 · A	19	41	35→45	46→55	56	189/281/251	62	237	3	9	20%	11%	56	-1.9	216/292/302	86	304	6	14	28%	9%	71	-0.8	210/285/301	91	316	8	17	33%	9%	65	-0.5
✕Carlos Sepulveda 2016 · A	19	47→45	34→30	49→45	44	221/271/268	47	283	2	8	22%	6%	54	-2.0	242/289/296	54	301	2	5	19%	6%	67	-1.1	234/289/273	39	298	0	7	20%	6%	59	-0.9
✕Matt Cerda 2010 · A	20	43→53	38→40	50→40	46	207/264/285	78	263	6	6	23%	7%	56	-1.9	239/314/318	79	300	3	4	19%	10%	82	+0.0	241/325/315	74	303	3	4	19%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Luis Valenzuela 2013 · A	19	41	37→45	51→45	45	196/255/276	80	259	4	6	25%	7%	51	-2.3	211/250/290	79	273	4	8	23%	5%	51	-2.2	263/285/365	102	319	5	7	19%	2%	78	-0.1
✕Narciso Polanco 2023 · A	18	40→42	37→40	50→55	48	188/274/262	74	275	3	11	30%	10%	56	-1.9	186/261/261	75	263	4	14	28%	8%	50	-2.3	181/262/256	74	247	5	19	26%	9%	47	-1.6
✕Angel Guzman 2024 · A	18	39	39→45	51→55	51	190/275/281	91	246	6	9	24%	9%	61	-1.5	193/294/290	97	272	8	10	29%	11%	70	-0.8	182/294/282	100	260	9	9	30%	12%	65	-0.4
✕Emmanuel Morel 2016 · A	19	42	34→30	52→55	53	193/282/250	57	259	1	17	24%	10%	56	-1.9	182/254/239	57	293	2	15	35%	8%	42	-2.9	139/207/173	34	251	0	17	41%	7%	8	-1.1

Juan Rojas

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps