Esnaider Vargas

SS DSL Nationals

Age 19 R/R 6'2" / 162 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1710ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKWSH	104	.223/.284/.309	1	4	-6	—	.125/.176/.156
2026	18	ROKWSH	166	.301/.370/.466	3	16	47	—	.192/.247/.272
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBWSH	276	.217/.272/.304	3	6	62	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBWSH	47	.220/.277/.313	1	1	68	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBWSH	116	.223/.282/.324	2	3	72	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed84

K%72

ISO71

Z-Con%71

Whiff%59

wOBA54

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDiego Infante (age 18) · Juan Lagares (age 19) · Ricardo Rosario (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 86 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .269 / .302

PA86

HR1

K%26

BB%6

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 52 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT52

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED61

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	104	94	21	5	0	1	6	24	2	4	1	223	284	309	593	85	282	23	6	267	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	166	146	44	11	2	3	16	28	0	16	4	301	370	466	836	164	345	17	10	362	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	104	96	12	3	0	0	4	30	2	4	1	125	176	156	333	31	173	29	4	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	166	151	29	7	1	1	11	34	0	16	4	192	247	272	518	79	226	20	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	104	96	12	3	0	0	4	30	2	4	1	125	176	156	333	31	176	29	4	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	104	94	21	5	0	1	6	24	2	4	1	223	284	309	593	85	282	23	6	267	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	166	151	29	7	1	1	11	34	0	16	4	192	247	272	518	79	233	20	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	166	146	44	11	2	3	16	28	0	16	4	301	370	466	836	164	345	17	10	362	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	104	97	12	3	0	0	4	30	2	4	1	124	176	155	331	31	173	29	4	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	166	154	29	7	1	1	11	34	0	16	4	188	247	266	513	78	226	20	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	104	97	12	3	0	0	4	30	2	4	1	124	176	155	331	31	173	29	4	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	166	154	29	7	1	1	11	34	0	16	4	188	247	266	513	78	226	20	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	276	255	55	10	2	3	17	71	2	6	1	217	272	304	576	88	287	26	6	260	62	-12	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	138	127	28	5	1	2	9	35	1	3	1	220	278	316	594	96	289	25	7	268	68	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	239	219	49	9	2	3	16	60	2	6	1	224	282	327	609	103	290	25	7	274	72	-8	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	351	322	73	14	3	5	23	87	3	9	2	226	286	335	621	109	291	25	7	279	75	-10	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.2
2031	23	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	425	389	89	17	3	7	29	105	4	11	3	229	289	342	631	113	292	25	7	283	78	-11	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.4
2032	24	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	472	431	99	19	3	8	33	116	5	12	3	230	292	348	639	117	293	25	7	287	80	-11	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.5
2033	25	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	499	457	106	20	4	9	34	122	5	13	3	231	292	349	641	118	293	24	7	287	81	-12	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.6
2034	26	MLB MLE	WSH	56%	513	468	108	20	4	9	35	126	5	13	3	231	292	349	641	119	292	25	7	287	81	-12	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.6
2035	27	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	517	471	108	20	4	9	36	127	5	13	3	230	291	347	638	117	292	25	7	286	80	-12	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.6
2036	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	515	469	108	20	4	9	36	128	5	12	3	228	289	342	631	114	291	25	7	283	78	-13	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.4
2037	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	504	459	103	19	3	8	35	127	5	11	3	226	286	337	623	111	290	25	7	280	76	-15	+1	-1	+5	+11	0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	47	44	10	2	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	220	277	313	590	94	288	26	6	267	68	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	116	106	25	5	1	2	8	29	1	3	1	223	282	324	605	101	289	25	7	273	72	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	190	173	40	8	1	3	13	47	2	5	1	226	285	332	618	107	290	25	7	278	75	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	241	221	50	10	1	4	16	59	2	6	1	228	288	339	628	111	291	24	7	282	78	-6	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	267	244	57	11	2	5	18	65	3	7	2	230	291	345	636	115	292	24	7	286	80	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	282	258	59	11	2	5	19	69	3	7	2	230	291	346	637	116	292	24	7	286	81	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	WSH	56%	290	265	61	12	2	5	20	71	3	7	2	230	291	346	638	116	292	24	7	286	81	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2035	27	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	287	262	60	11	2	5	20	71	3	7	2	229	290	344	634	115	291	25	7	285	80	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2036	28	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	283	258	59	11	2	5	20	70	3	6	2	227	288	340	628	112	291	25	7	282	78	-7	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.2
2037	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	269	247	55	11	1	4	18	68	2	6	2	225	286	334	620	109	289	25	7	279	76	-8	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2272	2078	476	92	14	39	155	561	22	55	15	229	290	343	633	114	294	25	7	282	74	-59	+5	-1	+24	+49	1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	136	26	4	11	44	160	6	16	4	229	288	342	630	113	293	25	7	282	74	-17	+1	-0	+7	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4529	4139	929	176	33	71	306	1119	43	125	30	224	285	334	619	110	288	25	7	278	74	-114	+11	-2	+46	+92	3.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	133	25	5	10	44	161	6	18	4	224	284	333	617	109	288	25	7	278	74	-17	+2	-0	+7	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Nationals · 166 PAwOBA .361 → .237 (−124)K% 16.9% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.87%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	20.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.64%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	6.71%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.73%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.019	×0.995	16.35%
Doubles /BIP	9.32%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.019	×0.995	5.67%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.019	×0.995	1.03%
Home runs /BIP	2.54%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	1.19%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .361 → .237; ISO .164 → .093; BABIP .345 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Nationals · 104 PAwOBA .265 → .159 (−105)K% 23.1% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.08%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	28.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.77%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.008	3.97%
HBP% /PA	1.92%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.36%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.025	×0.680	×0.950	×1.008	13.60%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.999	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	4.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.999	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.43%	÷1.300	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.52%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 100, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .265 → .159; ISO .085 → .041; BABIP .282 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#4Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
/162	664	9	30	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.6	2,358	39	57	229	286	343	+25	+18	3.4	3.3
/162	664	11	16	+7.1	+5.1	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esnaider Vargas (OGILVIE)	19	47→52	32→37	56→61	47	215/269/302	87	287	1	2	26%	6%	62	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Diego Infante 2018 · A	18	40→50	35→45	53→50	43	189/237/252	63	250	2	12	24%	6%	38	-3.2	194/238/262	68	291	3	10	32%	5%	40	-3.0	233/284/360	127	349	14	14	35%	6%	79	-0.2
●Juan Lagares 2008 · A	19	40→50	38→45	52→50	40	194/241/285	91	263	4	12	27%	5%	47	-2.5	222/252/306	84	290	5	12	24%	3%	55	-1.9	276/309/387	111	347	6	13	22%	4%	93	+0.7
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	39	36→40	52→55	45	184/248/252	68	235	3	13	22%	6%	43	-2.8	196/262/276	80	267	6	17	27%	7%	54	-2.0	194/268/275	82	258	8	24	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Ryan Vega 2016 · A	19	40	35→40	52→45	41	191/245/253	62	254	3	9	25%	5%	42	-2.9	219/272/310	91	283	7	7	24%	6%	65	-1.2	198/260/284	86	272	8	6	29%	6%	54	-0.9
✕Albert Laboy 2006 · A	19	39→38	37→40	52→45	42	187/233/255	68	227	5	9	20%	4%	38	-3.2	211/255/297	86	256	8	8	20%	5%	55	-1.9	215/263/301	86	251	10	6	18%	5%	57	-1.0
✕Steward Berroa 2018 · A	19	40→50	36→45	52→65	45	189/257/257	67	264	2	17	28%	8%	47	-2.5	204/269/271	67	302	2	17	30%	8%	55	-2.0	227/306/323	96	332	8	52	31%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Raylin Heredia 2023 · A	19	38→48	38→50	53→50	37	183/232/269	87	270	4	9	33%	5%	40	-3.0	200/252/309	109	324	9	11	39%	5%	57	-1.8	219/257/356	137	317	16	15	35%	4%	67	-0.6
✕Edwin Gomez 2007 · A	19	40	34→40	52→50	45	188/248/242	54	254	2	16	26%	7%	40	-3.0	204/287/282	78	267	5	13	23%	10%	65	-1.2	191/302/269	79	238	6	17	20%	12%	68	-0.4
●Óscar Mercado 2014 · A	19	38→48	37→50	52→60	40	182/240/255	73	262	4	13	30%	6%	40	-3.0	193/242/260	67	241	4	23	20%	5%	42	-2.9	245/308/380	135	288	13	27	19%	7%	93	+0.7
✕Elier Hernandez 2014 · A	19	42→51	37→50	53→50	35	200/238/277	77	287	3	6	31%	4%	43	-2.8	216/248/302	86	307	6	6	30%	3%	53	-2.1	230/278/366	136	300	14	9	27%	5%	77	-0.3
✕Buddy Kennedy 2018 · A	19	43→53	36→45	54→50	39	197/252/278	81	302	2	9	34%	6%	49	-2.4	215/268/309	94	283	7	5	25%	6%	63	-1.4	237/323/352	115	299	9	6	22%	10%	93	+0.7
✕Luis Liberato 2015 · A	19	36→46	37→50	52→50	44	176/243/245	69	250	4	14	30%	8%	39	-3.1	199/256/296	97	299	6	9	33%	7%	55	-1.9	221/286/368	148	299	15	9	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2017 · A	19	40→45	38→50	50→45	38	195/232/275	80	260	5	6	27%	4%	41	-3.0	188/231/283	95	306	9	5	40%	5%	43	-2.8	223/288/380	158	332	23	6	38%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Christian Bethancourt 2011 · A	19	44→53	38→50	50	39	215/245/298	83	271	5	9	23%	4%	51	-2.3	234/256/321	87	287	8	10	21%	3%	60	-1.6	233/268/383	149	287	19	5	25%	4%	80	-0.1
✕Randy Romero 2019 · A	19	40	35→40	50→60	47	188/241/250	62	223	3	12	17%	6%	39	-3.1	208/252/273	65	241	2	22	14%	5%	48	-2.5	200/237/254	54	244	1	30	18%	4%	38	-1.0
✕Leury García 2010 · A	19	43→53	35→45	54→60	37	204/245/264	60	295	3	18	31%	4%	43	-2.8	238/272/306	68	321	3	27	26%	4%	63	-1.4	281/320/390	109	351	9	28	22%	4%	99	+0.8
✕Athanael Duarte 2024 · A	19	40	38→40	54→45	47	190/248/268	78	225	6	14	19%	6%	47	-2.6	183/258/265	82	267	6	7	31%	8%	51	-2.3	153/243/231	78	239	5	5	35%	9%	36	-1.0
✕Chuck Taylor 2013 · A	19	41→51	34→40	49→50	38	192/244/246	54	294	2	14	34%	6%	39	-3.1	222/285/291	69	303	3	8	26%	7%	65	-1.2	240/305/325	85	298	6	4	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Granden Goetzman 2012 · A	19	39→45	36→45	51→55	41	187/245/251	65	268	3	12	30%	6%	41	-3.0	200/245/289	89	277	6	13	29%	5%	50	-2.3	212/242/319	107	281	7	25	27%	4%	52	-0.9
✕Conner Capel 2017 · A	20	40→48	36→45	52→55	44	191/238/258	68	240	2	13	21%	5%	40	-3.1	210/265/335	125	281	12	11	28%	7%	68	-1.0	226/297/349	123	283	12	19	23%	8%	80	-0.1

Esnaider Vargas

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps