Esnaider Vargas — OGILVIE

Esnaider VargasSS DSL Nationals

Age 18 R/R 6'2" / 162 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION166 act + 14 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .286 / .308

PA14

HR0

K%29

BB%7

BABIP279

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$25M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 43 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT43

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE44

scouting grade only

SPEED61

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.1M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$7M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	104	94	21	5	0	1	6	24	2	4	1	223	284	309	593	85	282	23	6	267	67	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	104	96	14	3	0	1	4	35	2	4	1	146	196	208	404	62	207	34	4	172	3	-12	+0	—	—	+2	-1.0
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	104	96	14	3	0	1	4	35	2	4	1	146	196	208	404	62	210	34	4	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	104	94	21	5	0	1	6	24	2	4	1	223	284	309	593	85	282	23	6	267	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	104	97	14	3	0	1	4	35	2	4	1	144	196	206	402	62	207	34	4	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	104	97	14	3	0	1	4	35	2	4	1	144	196	206	402	62	207	34	4	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	WSH	—	166	152	34	8	1	2	10	40	0	16	4	224	272	329	601	105	281	24	6	270	69	-6	+2	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK RAW	WSH	—	166	146	44	11	2	3	16	28	0	16	4	301	370	466	836	164	345	17	10	362	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	ROK MLE	WSH	0%	14	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	231	286	308	593	77	281	29	7	262	64	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	18	ROK MLE	WSH	—	180	165	37	9	1	2	11	44	0	17	4	224	273	327	600	103	285	24	6	269	68	-7	+2	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	226	208	47	9	2	4	14	56	2	6	1	226	281	346	627	120	285	25	6	275	72	-7	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2028	20	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	357	327	75	15	3	6	24	87	3	9	2	229	288	349	637	119	287	24	7	283	78	-10	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.3
2029	21	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	455	416	96	19	3	9	31	110	5	12	3	231	292	356	648	125	288	24	7	288	81	-10	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.6
2030	22	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	524	478	112	22	4	11	36	126	5	13	3	234	295	366	661	132	289	24	7	291	83	-10	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.8
2031	23	MLB MLE	WSH	58%	570	520	121	24	4	12	39	136	6	15	3	233	294	363	657	131	289	24	7	293	85	-10	+2	+0	+6	+12	1.0
2032	24	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	600	547	128	25	4	13	42	143	6	15	3	234	296	366	661	132	290	24	7	295	86	-10	+2	+0	+6	+13	1.1
2033	25	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	617	562	131	26	4	13	43	146	7	16	3	233	296	363	659	130	290	24	7	295	86	-10	+2	+0	+7	+13	1.2
2034	26	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	625	569	132	26	4	13	44	148	7	16	4	232	295	360	655	128	290	24	7	296	86	-10	+2	+0	+7	+14	1.2
2035	27	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	625	569	132	26	4	13	44	149	7	16	4	232	295	360	655	128	290	24	7	296	86	-10	+2	+0	+7	+14	1.2
2036	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	621	564	131	26	4	13	45	149	7	15	3	232	297	362	659	129	290	24	7	295	86	-11	+2	-1	+7	+13	1.1
2037	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	611	556	129	25	4	13	44	148	6	15	3	232	295	362	657	129	289	24	7	293	84	-11	+2	-1	+7	+13	0.9
2038	30	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	600	545	125	24	4	12	44	146	6	14	3	229	294	354	648	125	288	24	7	290	83	-12	+2	-2	+6	+13	0.7
2039	31	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	586	532	120	23	4	11	43	145	6	13	3	226	291	346	637	120	286	25	7	287	80	-14	+1	-3	+6	+13	0.4
2040	32	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	568	516	115	22	4	10	41	143	6	12	3	223	288	339	627	116	283	25	7	281	76	-16	+1	-4	+6	+12	0.0
2041	33	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	538	489	106	20	3	9	39	138	5	11	2	217	281	325	607	108	279	26	7	275	72	-18	+1	-4	+6	+12	-0.3
2027	19	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	78	72	15	3	0	1	5	19	1	2	0	208	269	292	561	83	283	24	6	267	72	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	173	158	35	7	1	3	11	42	2	5	1	222	281	335	616	114	285	24	6	274	78	-5	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2029	21	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	247	225	51	10	1	5	17	60	3	6	1	227	290	347	636	120	286	24	7	279	81	-6	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2030	22	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	297	272	62	12	2	6	20	71	3	8	2	228	288	353	641	125	287	24	7	282	83	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2031	23	MLB CTX	WSH	58%	328	299	70	14	2	7	23	78	3	8	2	234	295	365	660	130	288	24	7	284	85	-6	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.6
2032	24	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	342	311	72	14	2	7	24	81	4	9	2	232	295	357	652	125	288	24	7	285	86	-6	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	350	319	74	15	2	7	24	83	4	9	2	232	294	357	651	125	288	24	7	286	86	-6	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	354	322	76	15	2	8	25	84	4	9	2	236	299	370	669	134	288	24	7	286	86	-6	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	347	315	73	14	2	7	25	83	4	9	2	232	297	356	652	124	288	24	7	286	86	-6	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.7
2036	28	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	341	309	72	14	2	7	25	82	4	8	2	233	299	359	658	126	288	24	7	285	86	-6	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.6
2037	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	327	297	68	13	2	7	24	79	3	8	2	229	293	357	650	128	287	24	7	283	84	-6	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.5
2038	30	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	316	287	66	13	2	6	23	77	3	7	2	230	294	352	646	122	287	24	7	281	83	-6	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.3
2039	31	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	306	278	63	12	2	6	22	76	3	7	2	227	290	349	639	122	285	25	7	277	80	-7	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.2
2040	32	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	295	269	59	11	2	5	21	74	3	6	1	219	283	331	614	112	282	25	7	272	76	-8	+1	-2	+3	+6	0.0
2041	33	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	278	253	54	10	1	5	20	71	3	6	1	213	279	320	599	107	278	26	7	266	72	-9	+1	-2	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4379	3986	910	177	25	87	309	1060	47	107	24	228	292	351	642	122	288	24	7	281	81	-91	+12	-8	+47	+95	5.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	135	26	4	13	46	157	7	16	4	228	291	351	643	123	287	24	7	281	81	-14	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	8241	7507	1717	336	55	163	578	2009	86	203	44	229	291	353	645	125	289	24	7	288	81	-172	+23	-15	+87	+176	10.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	136	27	4	13	46	158	7	16	3	230	293	355	648	125	290	24	7	288	81	-14	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.8	4,488	90	109	230	290	356	+48	+27	8.7	7.3
/162	664	13	16	+7.1	+4.0	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esnaider Vargas (OGILVIE)	18	38→43	35→40	56→61	44	214/266/312	98	281	1	5	25%	6%	64	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gilberto Celestino 2018 · A	19	42→52	39→45	53→55	42	202/258/287	85	283	6	12	30%	7%	54	-2.0	216/266/306	90	282	7	10	24%	6%	61	-1.5	234/311/308	74	302	5	10	22%	9%	76	-0.2
✕Juan Lagares 2007 · A	18	42→52	40→45	53→50	41	203/261/302	99	285	6	11	30%	6%	59	-1.7	203/241/283	80	277	4	10	27%	4%	46	-2.6	268/308/373	106	324	7	13	19%	4%	89	+0.3
✕Adrián Sanchez 2009 · A	18	43→47	38→45	52→50	42	207/255/285	78	258	5	14	22%	5%	53	-2.1	224/255/301	77	272	5	11	19%	3%	55	-1.9	251/288/348	97	306	6	11	20%	4%	76	-0.2
✕Angel Aponte 2018 · A	18	43	40→45	53→55	42	206/274/301	94	284	6	13	28%	6%	64	-1.3	206/265/304	98	285	8	19	29%	6%	61	-1.5	204/264/295	91	289	8	25	30%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Rafael Herrera 2019 · A	18	43	35→40	52→50	45	200/267/266	67	269	2	12	25%	7%	53	-2.1	218/286/298	80	291	4	12	24%	8%	68	-1.0	229/304/310	81	297	4	17	22%	9%	74	-0.2
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	37→47	43→50	52→30	40	187/247/297	110	260	10	10	31%	6%	53	-2.1	196/245/302	106	303	10	7	37%	5%	53	-2.1	225/276/346	121	319	13	2	32%	5%	71	-0.3
✕Delino DeShields 2012 · A	19	40→50	40→45	50→65	41	195/252/281	86	270	8	16	30%	6%	51	-2.2	228/294/330	102	309	8	38	27%	7%	78	-0.3	236/312/340	103	313	6	38	24%	9%	83	+0.1
✕Andruw Monasterio 2015 · A	18	46→54	35→45	55	46	215/270/274	59	269	2	16	20%	6%	55	-1.9	205/258/265	60	261	2	11	21%	6%	49	-2.4	240/320/337	97	310	8	23	24%	9%	88	+0.3
●Moisés Sierra 2007 · A	18	42→52	39→50	52→50	42	203/266/292	89	271	6	13	26%	6%	59	-1.6	205/253/299	94	283	8	9	29%	4%	55	-1.9	249/315/369	120	307	12	15	22%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Che-Hsuan Lin 2008 · A	19	40→50	42→40	56→55	40	199/252/310	111	278	8	14	30%	6%	57	-1.8	223/287/309	86	277	6	19	20%	7%	70	-0.8	233/303/306	73	281	5	22	18%	8%	73	-0.6
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2007 · A	18	40	38→30	54→45	37	197/239/278	81	273	6	11	30%	4%	45	-2.7	217/280/275	58	274	3	9	20%	6%	60	-1.6	243/302/283	40	290	2	5	16%	6%	68	-0.4
✕Diego Infante 2018 · A	18	42→52	35→45	54→50	41	199/244/266	67	276	2	12	28%	6%	43	-2.8	197/241/267	70	299	4	10	33%	5%	43	-2.8	232/284/356	123	350	13	14	36%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2019 · A	18	42→52	39→55	51→55	40	205/251/286	81	270	6	16	26%	5%	51	-2.2	205/253/316	111	261	11	14	25%	5%	59	-1.6	253/291/409	156	303	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
✕Dixon Machado 2010 · A	18	39→49	37→45	53→55	49	188/254/256	69	223	5	19	18%	7%	47	-2.6	198/252/243	45	251	2	17	21%	6%	41	-3.0	222/304/330	107	267	11	4	20%	9%	79	-0.1
✕José Rodríguez 2019 · A	18	45→52	38→50	52→55	40	216/244/296	80	261	4	14	19%	3%	50	-2.3	222/251/339	117	282	12	13	25%	4%	63	-1.3	244/277/374	130	290	13	26	21%	4%	78	-0.2
✕Oswald Peraza 2019 · A	19	43→52	35→45	54→60	41	201/265/263	62	286	2	12	29%	6%	52	-2.2	223/277/308	85	293	7	20	25%	5%	66	-1.1	225/284/355	130	284	16	30	26%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Yordalin Peña 2023 · A	18	41→38	40→55	56→55	37	198/247/291	93	281	6	10	31%	5%	51	-2.2	189/248/281	92	276	6	12	32%	6%	49	-2.4	184/245/315	131	287	12	17	38%	6%	55	-1.1
✕Dawel Lugo 2013 · A	18	40→50	38→45	53→45	40	196/239/276	81	242	5	8	22%	4%	44	-2.8	221/248/303	82	273	7	4	21%	3%	53	-2.1	248/274/349	102	291	7	6	17%	3%	71	-0.8
✕Yeremy Cabrera 2023 · A	18	37→42	38→45	53→60	48	181/263/263	82	240	5	13	26%	8%	52	-2.2	207/289/321	114	272	11	17	26%	9%	75	-0.5	202/287/312	110	269	12	24	27%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Junior Lake 2009 · A	19	43→53	38→45	54→55	37	204/249/290	86	296	5	12	32%	5%	51	-2.2	211/249/307	96	315	8	13	34%	4%	55	-2.0	228/299/358	130	286	13	19	24%	8%	84	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps