Esnaider Vargas — OGILVIE

Esnaider VargasSS DSL Nationals

Age 18 R/R 6'2" / 162 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION90 act + 60 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .250 / .286

PA60

HR1

K%28

BB%7

BABIP263

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$8M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.7	$7M	+$7M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+1.7	$7M	+$5M
2036	Arb-2	$6M	+1.6	$6M	+$4M
2037	Arb-3	$7M	+1.4	$5M	+$3M
Totals		$19M		$40M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	104	96	13	3	0	0	4	36	2	4	1	135	186	167	353	31	210	35	4	166	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	104	94	21	5	0	1	6	24	2	4	1	223	284	309	593	85	282	23	6	267	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	WSH	—	90	83	16	3	1	2	6	29	0	11	1	193	247	325	572	133	264	32	7	258	56	-5	+2	+0	+1	+3	0.1
YTD	18	ROK	WSH	—	90	79	22	5	1	3	10	20	0	11	1	278	360	481	841	203	333	22	11	367	139	+4	+2	+0	+1	+3	0.9
ROS	18	ROK	WSH	0%	60	56	11	2	0	1	4	17	0	3	0	196	250	286	536	89	284	28	7	257	55	-3	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
ROS	18	MLB	WSH	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		284	—	—	252	51	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	WSH	—	90	84	16	3	1	2	6	29	0	11	1	190	247	321	569	131	259	32	7	258	56	-5	+2	+0	+1	+3	0.1
TOT	18	ROK	WSH	—	150	139	27	5	1	3	10	46	0	14	1	194	248	309	558	115	264	31	7	258	55	-8	+2	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	WSH	34%	182	166	36	7	1	3	12	51	2	7	1	217	278	325	603	108	288	28	7	271	66	-7	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2028	20	MLB	WSH	48%	323	295	64	12	2	6	22	89	3	13	2	217	278	332	610	115	290	28	7	280	72	-10	+2	+0	+3	+9	0.4
2029	21	MLB	WSH	54%	431	393	87	16	3	9	30	116	5	17	3	221	285	346	631	125	291	27	7	286	77	-11	+2	+0	+5	+12	0.8
2030	22	MLB	WSH	57%	507	460	103	19	3	11	36	136	6	20	3	224	289	350	639	126	292	27	7	290	80	-12	+3	+0	+5	+14	1.1
2031	23	MLB	WSH	58%	558	507	115	21	4	13	40	149	6	22	3	227	291	361	652	134	293	27	7	292	82	-12	+3	+0	+6	+16	1.4
2032	24	MLB	WSH	57%	592	537	123	23	4	14	43	157	7	23	4	229	295	365	660	136	294	27	7	294	83	-11	+3	+0	+6	+17	1.5
2033	25	MLB	WSH	57%	612	556	128	24	4	15	44	162	7	24	4	230	295	369	664	138	294	26	7	295	84	-11	+3	+0	+7	+17	1.6
2034	26	MLB	WSH	57%	622	565	129	24	4	15	45	165	7	25	4	228	293	365	658	136	294	27	7	296	85	-11	+3	+0	+7	+18	1.7
2035	27	MLB	WSH	55%	623	565	129	24	4	15	46	166	7	25	4	228	294	365	659	136	294	27	7	296	85	-11	+3	+0	+7	+18	1.7
2036	28	MLB	WSH	55%	619	561	128	24	4	15	46	166	7	24	4	228	295	365	660	137	293	27	7	295	84	-11	+3	-1	+7	+18	1.6
2037	29	MLB	WSH	53%	610	552	126	23	4	15	46	164	7	23	4	228	296	366	662	138	293	27	8	294	83	-12	+3	-1	+7	+17	1.4
2038	30	MLB	WSH	53%	600	543	122	22	4	14	45	163	7	23	3	225	292	357	650	133	292	27	8	291	81	-13	+3	-2	+6	+17	1.2
2039	31	MLB	WSH	52%	586	530	117	22	3	13	44	161	7	22	3	221	289	347	636	126	290	27	8	287	78	-15	+3	-3	+6	+17	0.9
2027	19	MLB	WSH	34%	63	58	12	2	0	1	4	18	1	2	0	207	270	293	563	86	288	29	6	264	60	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	20	MLB	WSH	48%	157	143	32	6	1	3	11	43	2	6	1	224	288	343	631	119	290	27	7	272	66	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	21	MLB	WSH	54%	234	212	48	9	2	5	17	63	3	9	1	226	293	358	652	132	291	27	7	277	70	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2030	22	MLB	WSH	57%	287	261	59	11	2	6	21	77	3	11	2	226	291	352	644	126	292	27	7	281	73	-9	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2031	23	MLB	WSH	58%	321	291	65	12	2	7	23	86	4	13	2	223	289	351	640	127	293	27	7	284	75	-9	+2	+0	+3	+9	0.5
2032	24	MLB	WSH	57%	337	306	70	13	2	8	24	90	4	13	2	229	293	363	656	134	294	27	7	286	77	-9	+2	+0	+4	+10	0.6
2033	25	MLB	WSH	57%	347	315	71	13	2	8	25	92	4	14	2	225	291	356	646	130	294	27	7	287	78	-9	+2	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2034	26	MLB	WSH	57%	352	319	74	14	2	9	26	93	4	14	2	232	298	373	671	141	294	26	7	287	78	-9	+2	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2035	27	MLB	WSH	55%	346	314	71	13	2	8	25	92	4	14	2	226	292	357	648	131	294	27	7	288	78	-9	+2	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2036	28	MLB	WSH	55%	340	308	70	13	2	8	25	91	4	13	2	227	294	360	654	133	293	27	7	287	78	-9	+2	-0	+4	+10	0.6
2037	29	MLB	WSH	53%	326	295	67	12	2	8	24	88	4	13	2	227	294	363	657	136	293	27	7	285	76	-9	+2	-1	+3	+9	0.5
2038	30	MLB	WSH	53%	316	285	64	12	2	7	24	86	4	12	2	225	294	354	648	130	292	27	8	283	74	-9	+2	-1	+3	+9	0.4
2039	31	MLB	WSH	52%	306	277	62	11	2	7	23	84	3	11	2	224	290	354	644	130	290	27	8	279	72	-10	+1	-1	+3	+9	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3732	3385	765	141	23	85	272	1003	44	145	22	226	292	357	649	131	293	27	7	283	75	-105	+20	-4	+40	+106	5.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	134	25	4	15	47	175	8	25	4	227	293	359	653	132	295	27	7	283	75	-18	+3	-1	+7	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	7029	6382	1431	266	44	159	507	1898	80	275	43	224	290	354	644	130	292	27	7	289	80	-162	+38	-7	+75	+199	14.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	133	25	4	15	47	176	7	25	4	225	290	358	648	132	294	27	7	289	80	-15	+3	-1	+7	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	104	94	21	5	0	1	6	24	2	4	1	223	284	309	593	85	282	23	6	267	62	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	8	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
	/162	664	14	30	243	301	366	+2.4	+12.6	2.6	pk7: 11
#4Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,821	88	149	227	290	360	+41	+24	8.4	7.3
	/162	664	15	26	227	290	360	+7.1	+4.2	1.5	pk7: 6
#6Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esnaider Vargas (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	194/248/309	115	264	3	14	31%	7%	55	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2019 · A	18	42→48	39→55	51→55	40	205/251/286	81	270	6	16	26%	5%	45	-2.1	206/254/321	115	262	11	14	25%	5%	56	-1.3	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	41→47	41→55	48→50	48	200/282/301	101	267	9	14	27%	9%	64	-0.8	211/283/328	117	302	11	8	32%	8%	71	-0.3	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	43	40→50	55	41	205/263/297	92	301	7	14	33%	7%	53	-1.5	187/262/281	94	277	7	12	32%	8%	50	-1.8	192/266/303	111	286	10	18	34%	8%	55	-0.5
✕Delino DeShields 2012 · A	19	40→50	40→45	50→65	41	196/253/282	87	272	8	16	30%	6%	45	-2.1	225/290/327	102	307	8	38	27%	7%	72	-0.2	242/320/339	97	323	6	34	25%	10%	85	+0.6
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	56→55	43	214/285/313	99	288	7	14	27%	7%	68	-0.5	203/314/320	117	299	9	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	201/310/335	134	289	10	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Eguy Rosario 2018 · A	18	44→52	36→50	53→55	41	205/261/283	77	291	2	20	29%	6%	48	-1.9	208/254/315	107	293	9	13	31%	5%	54	-1.4	219/282/363	144	293	15	21	29%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	43→53	38→45	54→55	48	203/273/292	90	270	5	13	25%	8%	56	-1.3	209/261/295	86	283	6	11	27%	6%	52	-1.6	240/311/319	79	317	7	14	25%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Cristian Hernández 2022 · A	18	45→46	38→45	55→60	46	212/281/288	76	301	6	19	30%	8%	59	-1.1	193/251/266	73	311	6	18	37%	7%	40	-2.4	212/279/312	100	297	8	33	29%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Yordalin Peña 2023 · A	18	41→39	40→55	55	37	198/247/291	93	283	6	10	31%	5%	45	-2.1	188/247/280	92	276	6	12	32%	6%	42	-2.3	189/253/317	128	293	11	17	37%	7%	53	-0.7
✕Dixon Machado 2010 · A	18	39→49	37→45	53→55	49	188/254/256	69	223	5	19	18%	7%	40	-2.4	195/249/240	45	248	2	17	21%	6%	32	-3.0	228/310/338	110	275	11	4	20%	9%	81	+0.3
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	37→47	43→45	52→30	40	187/247/297	110	260	10	10	31%	6%	47	-1.9	196/245/301	105	305	10	7	37%	5%	46	-2.0	224/273/340	115	327	12	2	33%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Juan Lagares 2007 · A	18	42→52	40→45	53→50	41	203/261/302	99	285	6	11	30%	6%	53	-1.5	203/241/283	80	277	4	10	27%	4%	39	-2.5	261/302/366	105	316	7	13	19%	4%	83	+0.3
✕Adrián Sanchez 2009 · A	18	43→45	38→45	52→50	42	207/255/285	78	258	5	14	22%	5%	46	-2.0	223/254/298	75	271	5	11	19%	3%	49	-1.8	255/291/358	104	310	7	11	20%	4%	76	+0.0
●Moisés Sierra 2007 · A	18	42→52	39→50	52→50	42	203/266/292	89	271	6	13	26%	6%	54	-1.4	205/253/299	94	283	8	9	29%	4%	50	-1.8	248/314/378	130	302	14	15	22%	7%	93	+0.9
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	193/266/287	94	270	9	17	30%	8%	53	-1.5	217/281/315	98	303	7	21	28%	8%	66	-0.6	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	40→50	57→55	42	201/257/293	92	281	6	22	30%	7%	50	-1.8	232/286/367	135	290	12	21	23%	7%	82	+0.5	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	43→46	38→45	47→55	49	203/297/279	76	256	6	12	22%	8%	66	-0.6	211/299/308	97	254	9	16	20%	9%	72	-0.2	216/299/322	106	259	12	19	21%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Wendell Rijo 2015 · A	19	42→41	40→55	51→50	44	201/267/302	101	282	7	12	30%	7%	56	-1.3	197/248/287	90	281	7	11	31%	5%	44	-2.1	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2