Jesus Carrasco

P DSL Nationals

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 152 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKWSH	10	5	24	7.99	4.16	7.4%	8.3%	—	K 5.1% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.47
2026	20	ROKWSH	13	2	38	5.45	4.42	17.9%	8.9%	—	K 12.1% · BB 11.2% · FIP 5.78
2027PROJ	21	MLBWSH	19	0	20	5.04	5.04	17.1%	10.6%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBWSH	17	0	18	4.81	4.71	19.2%	9.7%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsBrandon Komar (age 20) · Yunior Montero (age 22) · Tanner Cooper (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%17.1%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	10	5	24	121	9	10	1	50%	2.4	5.1%	10.3%	-5.3%	0.9%	7.99	4.47	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	10	5	24	121	9	10	1	50%	2.4	5.1%	10.3%	-5.3%	0.9%	7.99	4.47	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	10	5	24	121	9	10	1	50%	2.4	7.4%	8.3%	-0.8%	0.8%	7.99	4.16	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	13	2	38	168	30	15	5	15%	2.9	12.1%	11.2%	1.0%	4.2%	5.45	5.78	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	13	2	38	168	30	15	5	15%	2.9	12.1%	11.2%	1.0%	4.2%	5.45	5.78	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	13	2	38	168	30	15	5	15%	2.9	17.9%	8.9%	8.9%	3.0%	5.45	4.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	WSH	19	0	20	84	14	9	3	0%	1.1	17.1%	10.6%	6.5%	3.0%	5.04	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	WSH	34	0	36	152	29	15	4	0%	1.1	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	3.0%	4.81	4.71	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	WSH	17	0	18	76	15	7	2	0%	1.1	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	3.0%	4.81	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	14	7	2	0%	1.0	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	3.0%	4.81	4.33	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	79	23	0%	1.1	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	3.0%	4.81	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		23	7	62	289	27	31	8	30%	2.7	9.2%	10.8%	-1.6%	2.8%	6.42	5.23	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	23	200	937	86	101	26	30%	2.7	9.2%	10.8%	-1.6%	2.8%	6.42	5.23	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Carrasco (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	17.1%	10.6%	3.0%	—	4.71	19.2%	9.5%	36	-0.33	—	—	—
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	90
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	85
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	84
Adam Bernero R 2000 · 4.15 FIP	23	SW	4.15	14.2%	8.5%	2.1%	.283	4.88	14.2%	6.3%	247	+0.73	3.45	376	84
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	83
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	82
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	82
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	82
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	82
Francisco Moreno R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	21	SU	4.36	14.9%	11.5%	1.9%	.297	6.32	9.9%	-2.0%	84	+1.96	3.88	162	82
Daniel Hudson R 2009 · 5.06 FIP	22	SW	5.06	17.1%	11.0%	3.7%	.232	3.42	19.4%	13.6%	363	-1.64	1.68	850	82
Victor Espiritu R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	14.6%	12.7%	1.8%	.294	4.04	13.5%	1.8%	60	-0.41	3.49	101	81
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	81
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	81
Nolan Kingham R 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SW	4.70	12.1%	8.7%	2.8%	.338	4.22	13.1%	7.0%	260	-0.48	3.93	544	81
Ezequiel Ventura R 2023 · 5.62 FIP	21	SW	5.62	13.5%	11.7%	4.0%	.302	4.71	14.1%	5.7%	32	-0.91	3.77	151	81
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	80
Wellington Diaz R 2018 · 4.85 FIP	21	SW	4.85	16.4%	12.6%	2.8%	.315	5.81	20.0%	2.8%	59	+0.96	3.29	172	80
Conor Harber R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	21	SW	3.93	14.3%	10.0%	1.4%	.257	4.33	16.3%	2.8%	262	+0.40	3.05	333	80
Luis F. Castillo R 2016 · 4.51 FIP	21	SU	4.51	16.7%	10.5%	2.7%	.337	3.50	19.7%	12.3%	96	-1.01	2.95	254	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	18.5%	10.1%	1.15	4.89
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*