Juan Lopez

P FCL Nationals

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKWSH	15	0	33	2.70	3.40	32.7%	12.8%	—	K 22.2% · BB 16.0% · FIP 4.77
2026	21	ROKWSH	13	6	37	4.38	5.05	27.7%	19.9%	—	K 18.8% · BB 24.8% · FIP 6.97
2027PROJ	22	MLBWSH	20	0	21	5.85	5.85	21.7%	19.9%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBWSH	16	0	17	5.48	5.33	22.6%	16.7%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsRadhames Liz (age 23) · Keegan Collett (age 21) · Hansel Rosario (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.85

FIP5.85

K%21.7%

BB%19.9%

K-BB%1.7%

Proj IP21

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	15	0	33	156	51	20	4	0%	2.2	22.2%	16.0%	6.2%	2.8%	2.70	4.77	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	15	0	33	156	51	20	4	0%	2.2	22.2%	16.0%	6.2%	2.8%	2.70	4.77	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	15	0	33	156	51	20	4	0%	2.2	32.7%	12.8%	19.9%	2.6%	2.70	3.40	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	13	6	37	166	46	33	5	46%	2.8	18.8%	24.8%	-6.0%	4.2%	4.38	6.97	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	13	6	37	166	46	33	5	46%	2.8	18.8%	24.8%	-6.0%	4.2%	4.38	6.97	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	13	6	37	166	46	33	5	46%	2.8	27.7%	19.9%	7.8%	3.0%	4.38	5.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	WSH	20	0	21	89	19	18	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	19.9%	1.7%	3.0%	5.85	5.85	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	WSH	33	0	34	146	33	24	4	0%	1.0	22.6%	16.7%	5.9%	3.0%	5.48	5.33	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	WSH	16	0	17	72	16	12	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	16.7%	5.9%	3.0%	5.48	5.33	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	72	16	12	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	16.7%	5.9%	3.0%	5.48	4.95	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	142	24	0%	1.1	22.6%	16.7%	5.9%	3.0%	5.48	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		28	6	70	322	66	66	11	21%	2.5	20.5%	20.6%	-0.1%	3.5%	3.58	5.90	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	17	200	916	188	188	32	21%	2.5	20.5%	20.6%	-0.1%	3.5%	3.58	5.90	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.85	21.7%	19.9%	3.0%	—	5.33	22.6%	5.9%	34	-0.52	—	—	—
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	85
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	83
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	82
Ryan Cardona R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	22	SW	5.07	20.9%	17.7%	2.7%	.274	4.27	18.5%	4.3%	292	-0.80	3.62	367	81
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	81
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	81
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	78
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	77
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	77
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	450	77
Eury Rosado R 2023 · 6.56 FIP	22	SW	6.56	17.8%	18.2%	4.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	109	77
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	76
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	76
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	76
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	76
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	76
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	76
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	76
Engel Daniel Peralta R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SW	5.28	17.7%	15.0%	3.2%	.300	5.89	16.6%	1.2%	33	+0.61	3.34	129	76
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	22.2%	17.9%	1.17	5.62
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*