Diego Arroyo

P DSL Colorado

Age 19 LHP 5'11" / 173 lbs ROK peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Colorado	11	9	43	5.86	4.43	26.2%	9.1%	—	K 17.8% · BB 11.4% · FIP 5.86
2026	18	ROKDSL Colorado	10	6	37	3.13	3.29	27.0%	5.3%	—	K 18.3% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.91
2027PROJ	19	MLB—	4	4	23	4.85	4.85	18.2%	9.5%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLB—	4	4	20	4.74	4.70	19.2%	9.2%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsPablo Aldonis (age 20) · Thomas Ireland (age 21) · Wilkin Paredes (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%18.2%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	9	43	187	49	17	8	82%	3.9	17.8%	11.4%	6.5%	5.1%	5.86	5.86	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	9	43	187	49	17	8	82%	3.9	17.8%	11.4%	6.5%	5.1%	5.86	5.86	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	11	9	43	187	49	17	8	82%	3.9	26.2%	9.1%	17.1%	4.3%	5.86	4.43	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	10	6	37	152	41	8	5	60%	3.7	18.3%	6.6%	11.8%	4.6%	3.13	4.91	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	10	6	37	152	41	8	5	60%	3.7	18.3%	6.6%	11.8%	4.6%	3.13	4.91	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	10	6	37	152	41	8	5	60%	3.7	27.0%	5.3%	21.7%	3.3%	3.13	3.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	—	4	4	23	97	18	9	3	100%	5.8	18.2%	9.5%	8.8%	3.1%	4.85	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	7	7	41	171	33	16	5	100%	5.8	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.0%	4.74	4.70	+0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	4	4	20	84	16	8	3	100%	5.0	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.0%	4.74	4.70	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	20	84	16	8	3	100%	5.0	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.0%	4.74	4.32	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	160	80	30	100%	5.6	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.0%	4.74	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		21	15	80	339	61	31	17	71%	3.8	18.1%	9.2%	8.8%	4.9%	4.59	5.44	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	844	152	78	41	71%	3.8	18.1%	9.2%	8.8%	4.9%	4.59	5.44	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Diego Arroyo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	18.2%	9.5%	3.1%	—	4.70	19.2%	10.0%	41	-0.15	—	—	—
Pablo Aldonis L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.7%	8.0%	3.3%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.55	1.89	135	84
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	83
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	83
Kelvin Rosario L 2024 · 4.69 FIP	17	SP-	4.69	16.7%	11.2%	2.9%	.280	6.63	15.9%	-2.9%	54	+1.94	4.34	126	82
Franklin Dacosta L 2019 · 3.78 FIP	19	SP-	3.78	15.9%	8.1%	1.8%	.274	3.72	21.2%	13.5%	118	-0.06	2.83	247	81
Brock Selvidge L 2022 · 3.70 FIP	19	SP-	3.70	19.9%	11.7%	1.5%	.321	3.79	17.8%	7.6%	287	+0.09	3.07	330	81
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	81
Sam Hentges L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP-	4.34	18.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.333	3.99	18.9%	7.4%	192	-0.35	2.22	613	81
Rafael Monsion L 2019 · 4.13 FIP	19	SP-	4.13	16.1%	7.2%	2.7%	.252	5.19	16.2%	6.4%	22	+1.06	4.01	159	81
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	80
Gabriel Reyes L 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	14.0%	8.0%	2.0%	.347	3.96	19.3%	9.7%	144	-0.07	1.74	233	80
Ryan Feierabend L 2006 · 5.30 FIP	20	SP-	5.30	15.1%	9.6%	4.1%	.231	5.31	12.6%	4.3%	89	+0.01	4.97	174	79
Alex Troop L 2018 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP-	4.41	15.0%	7.5%	3.0%	.339	3.82	20.8%	16.2%	106	-0.59	2.93	379	79
Jhon Martinez L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	20	SP-	3.73	12.9%	6.1%	1.7%	.262	3.93	11.3%	3.9%	62	+0.20	3.73	102	78
Colin Schmid L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SP-	4.81	11.8%	9.7%	2.7%	.298	4.10	15.2%	5.7%	125	-0.71	3.24	191	78
Conner Menez L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	21	SP-	4.10	16.0%	8.5%	2.3%	.282	3.83	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.27	2.03	503	77
Leo Crawford L 2016 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP-	3.74	16.6%	7.3%	2.1%	.266	3.90	15.8%	8.5%	372	+0.16	2.05	567	77
Packy Naughton L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	21	SP	4.45	17.0%	9.9%	2.8%	.323	3.62	15.9%	10.0%	311	-0.83	3.04	504	76
Javier Chacon L 2022 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	22.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.295	4.63	20.3%	3.5%	94	-0.98	4.56	202	76
Gabriel Agostini L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	13.5%	12.4%	2.9%	.246	5.63	9.5%	-16.8%	12	+0.49	1.97	122	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	18.8%	9.3%	1.19	4.78
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*