Logan Berrier — OGILVIE

Logan Berrier P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%18.0%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	35	157	33	18	2	0%	1.3	12.7%	14.8%	-2.0%	1.2%	4.63	4.54	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	35	157	33	18	2	0%	1.3	12.7%	14.8%	-2.0%	1.2%	4.63	4.54	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	35	157	33	18	2	0%	1.3	21.0%	11.5%	9.6%	1.3%	4.63	3.50	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	39	0	55	244	51	25	2	0%	1.4	16.1%	11.8%	4.3%	1.0%	4.45	3.80	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	39	0	55	244	51	25	2	0%	1.4	16.1%	11.8%	4.3%	1.0%	4.45	3.80	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	DET	39	0	55	244	51	25	2	0%	1.4	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	0.8%	4.45	3.08	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	DET	51	0	54	226	43	29	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.8%	6.4%	2.9%	5.09	5.07	-0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	50	0	53	223	43	28	7	0%	1.1	19.5%	12.6%	6.9%	2.9%	5.04	5.05	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	DET	22	0	23	97	19	12	3	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.8%	6.4%	2.9%	5.09	5.07	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	31	0	33	139	27	18	4	0%	1.1	19.5%	12.6%	6.9%	2.9%	5.04	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	237	46	30	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.7%	6.7%	2.9%	5.06	4.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	107	25	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.7%	6.7%	2.9%	5.06	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		65	0	90	401	59	52	4	0%	1.4	14.8%	12.9%	1.8%	1.1%	4.52	4.09	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	0	200	894	132	116	10	0%	1.4	14.8%	12.9%	1.8%	1.1%	4.52	4.09	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Berrier (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	18.0%	13.2%	2.9%	—	5.06	19.3%	6.6%	106	-0.16	—	—	—
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	86
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	86
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	85
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	85
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	84
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.19 FIP	25	SU	5.19	18.4%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.59	16.6%	9.3%	85	-1.60	3.20	213	84
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	84
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	84
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	84
Will Latcham R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	25	SU	4.30	18.8%	11.5%	2.4%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	134	84
Carlos Ramirez R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	18.9%	14.5%	1.6%	.291	3.10	23.5%	14.5%	103	-1.14	2.62	177	83
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	83
Isrrael De La Cruz R 2022 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	16.7%	12.5%	2.0%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	100	83
Yaramil Hiraldo R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SU	4.86	18.5%	15.5%	2.5%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	153	83
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	83
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	83
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	41	19.2%	12.8%	1.13	5.09
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82