Michael Ross — OGILVIE

Michael Ross P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION97 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%15.2%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	20	16	82	346	76	29	8	80%	4.1	16.3%	9.9%	6.4%	3.3%	3.18	4.82	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	20	16	82	346	76	29	8	80%	4.1	16.3%	9.9%	6.4%	3.3%	3.18	4.82	—
2025	23	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	20	16	82	346	76	29	8	80%	4.1	22.0%	8.4%	13.6%	2.3%	3.18	3.58	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	30	10	97	421	77	28	15	33%	3.2	14.1%	7.6%	6.4%	4.5%	6.66	5.32	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	30	10	97	421	77	28	15	33%	3.2	14.1%	7.6%	6.4%	4.5%	6.66	5.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	MIN	30	10	97	421	77	28	15	33%	3.2	18.3%	6.7%	11.6%	3.6%	6.66	4.35	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIN	6	0	6	26	4	3	1	0%	1.0	15.2%	10.9%	4.3%	3.1%	5.26	5.26	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	103	447	81	31	16	—	—	18.1%	6.9%	11.2%	3.5%	6.58	5.32	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIN	92	0	96	407	68	42	12	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.4%	6.3%	3.0%	5.10	5.06	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	92	0	96	407	71	41	12	0%	1.0	17.4%	10.1%	7.3%	3.0%	4.99	4.96	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	91	0	95	402	71	41	12	0%	1.0	17.6%	10.1%	7.6%	3.1%	4.96	4.96	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	88	0	92	389	69	40	12	0%	1.0	17.6%	10.2%	7.5%	3.2%	4.99	5.03	-0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	84	0	88	372	65	39	12	0%	1.0	17.4%	10.4%	7.0%	3.3%	5.09	5.16	-0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIN	79	0	83	350	60	37	12	0%	1.0	17.0%	10.7%	6.3%	3.5%	5.24	5.34	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIN	40	0	42	177	30	18	5	0%	1.1	16.7%	10.4%	6.3%	3.1%	5.11	5.07	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	61	0	64	270	47	27	8	0%	1.0	17.4%	10.1%	7.3%	3.0%	5.00	4.97	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	70	0	74	312	55	32	10	0%	1.1	17.6%	10.1%	7.6%	3.1%	4.97	4.97	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	74	0	78	329	58	34	11	0%	1.1	17.6%	10.2%	7.5%	3.2%	5.00	5.04	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	73	0	77	325	57	34	11	0%	1.1	17.4%	10.4%	7.0%	3.3%	5.10	5.17	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIN	70	0	74	312	53	33	11	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.7%	6.3%	3.5%	5.25	5.35	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		389	0	408	1724	299	178	56	0%	1.0	17.4%	10.3%	7.0%	3.2%	5.07	4.72	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	87	27	0%	1.1	17.4%	10.3%	7.0%	3.2%	5.07	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		50	26	179	767	116	66	30	52%	3.6	15.1%	8.7%	6.4%	4.0%	5.07	5.10	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	29	200	855	129	74	34	52%	3.6	15.1%	8.7%	6.4%	4.0%	5.07	5.10	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Ross (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	15.2%	10.9%	3.1%	—	4.99	17.2%	7.0%	288	-0.27	—	—	—
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	89
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	88
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	86
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	85
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	83
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	83
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	83
Felipe Gonzalez R 2016 · 5.47 FIP	24	SP-	5.47	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	.330	4.12	19.9%	10.4%	139	-1.35	3.27	339	83
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	82
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	82
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	82
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.28	14.8%	3.5%	163	+0.78	2.59	367	82
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	82
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	82
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	81
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	81
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	81
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	81
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	81
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	88	17.1%	10.4%	1.23	5.08
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10