Juan Duarte — OGILVIE

Juan Duarte P DSL Phillies Red

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 17 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%21.8%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	8	0	11	48	7	9	0	0%	1.4	14.6%	18.8%	-4.2%	0.0%	2.45	4.24	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	8	0	11	48	7	9	0	0%	1.4	14.6%	18.8%	-4.2%	0.0%	2.45	4.24	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	8	0	11	48	7	9	0	0%	1.4	14.6%	18.8%	-4.2%	0.0%	2.45	4.28	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	17	0	28	124	28	18	3	0%	1.6	15.4%	18.1%	-2.8%	4.0%	4.50	6.29	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	17	0	28	124	28	18	3	0%	1.6	15.4%	18.1%	-2.8%	4.0%	4.50	6.29	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	17	0	28	124	28	18	3	0%	1.6	22.6%	14.5%	8.1%	2.4%	4.50	4.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	PHI	16	0	17	72	16	10	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.3%	7.5%	3.0%	5.10	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	PHI	25	0	26	110	25	14	3	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.5%	10.2%	3.0%	4.88	4.78	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	PHI	12	0	13	55	12	7	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.5%	10.2%	3.0%	4.88	4.78	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	12	7	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.5%	10.2%	3.0%	4.88	4.40	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	109	31	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.5%	10.2%	3.0%	4.88	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		25	0	39	172	26	32	5	0%	1.6	15.1%	18.3%	-3.2%	2.9%	3.92	5.72	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	0	200	882	134	162	25	0%	1.6	15.1%	18.3%	-3.2%	2.9%	3.92	5.72	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Duarte (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	21.8%	14.3%	3.0%	—	4.78	22.7%	10.2%	26	-0.32	—	—	—
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	93
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	91
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	91
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	90
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	89
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	89
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	89
Samuel Carpio R 2024 · 4.20 FIP	21	SU	4.20	21.2%	15.3%	1.7%	.300	5.36	21.6%	-3.4%	112	+1.16	4.20	134	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	88
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	87
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	87
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	87
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	87
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	87
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	87
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	86
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	86
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	86