Gabriel Rivero — OGILVIE

Gabriel Rivero P DSL Astros Orange

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 186 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%22.2%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	11	2	26	102	34	16	0	18%	2.3	22.7%	19.6%	3.1%	0.0%	1.40	3.67	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	11	2	26	102	34	16	0	18%	2.3	22.7%	19.6%	3.1%	0.0%	1.40	3.67	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	11	2	26	102	34	16	0	18%	2.3	33.3%	15.7%	17.6%	0.0%	1.40	2.32	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	7	2	21	99	23	16	0	29%	3.0	15.8%	20.2%	-4.4%	0.0%	3.38	4.32	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	7	2	21	99	23	16	0	29%	3.0	15.8%	20.2%	-4.4%	0.0%	3.38	4.32	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	7	2	21	99	23	16	0	29%	3.0	23.2%	16.2%	7.1%	0.0%	3.38	3.19	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	—	12	0	13	55	12	9	2	0%	1.1	22.2%	15.5%	6.7%	2.9%	5.19	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	—	19	0	20	84	19	11	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.83	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	—	10	0	10	42	10	6	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.83	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	6	1	0%	1.1	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.45	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	122	20	0%	1.1	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		18	4	47	201	39	40	0	22%	2.6	19.3%	19.9%	-0.6%	0.0%	2.30	3.99	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	17	200	855	165	170	0	22%	2.6	19.3%	19.9%	-0.6%	0.0%	2.30	3.99	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Rivero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	22.2%	15.5%	2.9%	—	4.83	23.0%	9.6%	20	-0.36	—	—	—
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	85
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	83
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	82
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	82
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	81
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	80
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	80
Rafael Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	20	SW	4.11	21.8%	16.3%	1.4%	.303	5.08	15.7%	-4.4%	82	+0.97	3.42	162	79
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	79
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	79
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	79
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	79
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	79
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	79
Alix Hernandez R 2024 · 4.44 FIP	20	SU	4.44	21.7%	13.7%	2.6%	.300	5.16	23.0%	11.4%	78	+0.72	3.55	170	78
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	78
Dylan Heid R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	21.6%	16.9%	2.4%	.287	3.33	22.6%	9.0%	103	-1.37	2.66	135	78
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	78
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	78
Marc Davis R 2022 · 5.26 FIP	22	SU	5.26	20.7%	14.0%	3.9%	.151	4.87	17.1%	-0.3%	88	-0.39	4.02	111	77