Edgar Alvarez — OGILVIE

Edgar Alvarez1B Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 L/R 6'3" / 225 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION426 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP264

ISO99

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	110	94	23	4	0	1	15	36	1	1	1	245	355	319	674	74	386	33	14	316	100	-0	-0	—	—	+2	0.2
2025	24	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	438	376	97	20	0	8	52	94	4	8	1	258	354	375	729	117	318	21	12	329	109	+4	+1	—	—	+9	1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	110	99	19	3	0	1	10	48	1	1	1	192	273	253	525	61	355	44	9	236	46	-7	-0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	438	393	84	17	0	6	35	121	4	8	1	214	285	303	588	89	279	28	8	262	63	-19	+1	—	—	+9	-0.9
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	110	99	19	3	0	1	10	48	1	1	1	192	273	253	525	61	360	44	9	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	110	94	23	4	0	1	15	36	1	1	1	245	355	319	674	74	386	33	14	316	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	438	393	84	17	0	6	35	121	4	8	1	214	285	303	588	89	287	28	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	438	376	97	20	0	8	52	94	4	8	1	258	354	375	729	117	318	21	12	329	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	110	98	19	3	0	1	10	48	1	1	1	194	273	255	528	61	355	44	9	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	438	396	84	17	0	6	35	121	4	8	1	212	285	301	585	88	279	28	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	110	98	19	3	0	1	10	48	1	1	1	194	273	255	528	61	355	44	9	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	438	396	84	17	0	6	35	121	4	8	1	212	285	301	585	88	279	28	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	CHC	—	426	368	63	17	1	9	50	140	4	1	1	171	277	296	573	125	242	33	12	257	60	-20	-0	+0	-8	+9	-1.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA RAW	CHC	—	426	346	70	20	1	11	72	115	4	1	1	202	346	361	707	159	263	27	17	323	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	AA MLE	CHC	2%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		263	33	11	264	65	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	25	AA MLE	CHC	—	435	376	64	17	1	9	51	143	4	1	1	170	276	293	569	122	241	33	12	257	60	-21	-0	+0	-8	+9	-2.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	31%	365	321	62	15	1	7	38	113	3	3	1	193	285	312	596	118	265	31	10	270	69	-13	+0	+0	-7	+8	-1.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	31%	113	99	19	5	0	2	12	35	1	1	0	192	286	303	589	111	266	31	11	264	69	-4	+0	+0	-2	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	113	99	19	5	0	2	12	35	1	1	0	192	286	303	589	111	270	31	11	264	64	-4	+0	+0	-2	+2	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	569	110	29	0	12	69	201	6	6	0	193	287	308	595	114	271	31	11	264	64	-24	+1	+0	-12	+14	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	922	821	166	35	1	14	84	285	8	12	3	202	283	298	581	96	287	31	9	262	64	-14	+0	+0	-7	+8	-1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	118	25	1	10	59	201	6	8	2	204	285	302	587	98	289	31	9	262	64	-24	+0	+0	-12	+14	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edgar Alvarez (OGILVIE)	25	45	35	45	50	183/277/293	110	263	6	2	32%	11%	65	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chantz Mack 2016 · AA	25	44→47	42→45	44→45	44	213/275/320	107	286	9	6	28%	7%	68	-1.0	219/293/328	109	300	11	5	28%	9%	77	-0.3	217/299/324	107	292	12	3	28%	10%	76	-0.2
✕Cornelius Randolph 2021 · AA	24	44→47	41→40	46→45	43	212/270/309	97	291	9	9	29%	7%	64	-1.3	205/266/314	109	333	11	12	38%	7%	64	-1.3	189/255/292	102	294	12	15	37%	8%	53	-0.6
✕Jake Guenther 2022 · A	25	43	44→45	41→40	43	217/284/326	110	284	13	6	28%	7%	74	-0.5	205/272/314	109	291	12	7	32%	7%	67	-1.1	132/206/234	102	189	13	3	37%	6%	24	-0.9
✕Jeremy Vasquez 2021 · AA	25	46	39→45	41→30	48	218/286/308	90	281	6	4	24%	8%	70	-0.8	214/277/313	99	275	8	3	24%	8%	68	-1.0	208/272/304	95	264	8	1	23%	8%	62	-0.9
✕Stefan Welch 2014 · AA	25	42→43	45	45→40	44	211/278/329	118	280	13	5	28%	7%	72	-0.7	204/279/317	113	284	11	5	30%	8%	70	-0.8	178/263/285	107	251	10	1	31%	8%	57	-1.2
✕Matt Winaker 2021 · A	25	38→40	41→45	46→45	43	189/269/291	102	256	8	7	28%	7%	61	-1.5	197/290/280	83	270	6	6	27%	9%	67	-1.1	177/283/251	73	242	5	3	26%	9%	56	-0.8
✕Carlos Franco 2017 · AA	25	47→50	40→45	42→45	43	222/279/311	89	311	7	5	30%	7%	68	-1.0	214/265/329	115	321	13	3	35%	6%	67	-1.1	204/254/326	122	304	16	1	37%	6%	60	-1.3
✕Matthew Page 2017 · A	25	47→48	41→45	48→45	45	227/284/331	104	305	7	5	27%	7%	74	-0.6	210/267/305	95	320	7	7	34%	7%	62	-1.4	160/221/222	62	276	4	4	41%	7%	23	-1.3
✕Ryan Jones 2013 · A	25	46→47	43→45	46→45	43	220/278/341	120	294	8	5	27%	7%	74	-0.6	208/260/327	119	272	11	11	27%	6%	65	-1.2	178/225/304	126	215	15	16	26%	5%	45	-1.4
✕Dariel Gomez 2021 · A	25	46→44	43→50	49→30	44	219/289/329	110	320	10	6	33%	8%	76	-0.4	183/254/317	134	350	14	2	48%	8%	61	-1.5	160/235/295	135	300	15	0	48%	8%	46	-1.4
✕Dylan Harris 2022 · A	25	43	39→45	45	48	200/289/284	84	300	7	10	33%	10%	67	-1.1	197/274/303	106	304	9	10	35%	9%	65	-1.2	156/238/269	113	241	11	9	38%	9%	42	-1.1
✕John Urick 2007 · A	25	44→46	43→45	42→30	44	214/279/332	117	286	10	2	28%	7%	74	-0.6	212/278/335	123	305	11	2	32%	7%	74	-0.6	204/273/331	127	295	12	0	33%	7%	71	-0.5
✕Preston Beck 2016 · AA	25	43→44	42→45	49→45	48	208/275/315	107	259	9	8	23%	8%	68	-1.0	218/270/322	104	273	8	6	22%	6%	67	-1.1	218/268/320	101	275	8	3	23%	5%	63	-0.9
✕D.J. Hicks 2015 · A	25	45→47	44→45	41→30	44	223/284/344	121	302	12	2	29%	8%	78	-0.3	215/276/308	93	301	8	3	29%	8%	66	-1.1	207/270/283	76	292	6	2	29%	8%	55	-1.2
✕Brandon Wagner 2021 · AA	25	38→48	43→45	47→30	40	183/266/286	102	293	11	4	38%	8%	59	-1.6	192/273/284	92	348	9	7	43%	9%	61	-1.5	137/239/190	53	278	7	3	48%	11%	26	-1.3
✕Kacy Clemens 2019 · A	25	40→37	43→45	47→45	45	198/272/308	110	287	10	4	33%	9%	65	-1.2	178/249/272	94	284	9	6	37%	8%	49	-2.4	133/209/207	74	216	9	4	40%	9%	19	-3.3
✕Cole Moore 2023 · A	24	43	41→45	49→40	45	208/276/309	100	291	8	6	30%	8%	67	-1.1	205/282/306	101	328	8	5	36%	10%	68	-1.0	180/272/283	103	293	9	3	38%	11%	59	-0.6
✕Brendon Sanger 2019 · AA	25	42	43→45	41→45	46	210/279/319	109	279	11	5	28%	8%	70	-0.8	192/264/301	109	281	12	7	34%	8%	61	-1.5	147/228/243	96	221	12	4	37%	8%	33	-2.4
✕Jeremy Synan 2011 · A	25	43→46	43→45	42→40	40	212/264/328	116	293	10	5	30%	6%	66	-1.1	211/271/318	107	294	7	6	29%	7%	66	-1.1	204/269/314	110	279	5	4	27%	7%	63	-0.8
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	41	42→45	48→55	46	196/275/302	106	285	8	8	32%	9%	65	-1.2	214/296/317	103	297	10	14	29%	8%	76	-0.4	217/300/310	94	291	10	19	27%	8%	75	-0.3