Edgar Alvarez — OGILVIE

Edgar Alvarez1B Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 L/R 6'3" / 225 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION266 act + 177 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .274 / .283

PA177

HR3

K%32

BB%10

BABIP260

ISO103

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	110	99	19	3	0	1	10	48	1	1	1	192	273	253	525	61	360	44	9	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	110	94	23	4	0	1	15	36	1	1	1	245	355	319	674	74	386	33	14	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	438	394	84	17	0	6	34	115	4	8	1	213	282	302	584	89	280	26	8	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	438	376	97	20	0	8	52	94	4	8	1	258	354	375	729	117	318	21	12	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AA	CHC	—	266	228	35	10	1	7	32	92	4	0	0	154	269	298	567	145	214	35	12	257	55	-14	+0	+0	-5	+8	-1.1
YTD	25	AA	CHC	—	266	214	40	12	1	8	46	71	4	0	0	187	341	364	705	178	234	27	17	323	105	+2	+0	+0	-5	+8	0.4
ROS	25	AA	CHC	2%	177	155	28	7	0	3	18	57	2	1	0	180	274	283	557	103	258	32	10	261	58	-8	+0	+0	-3	+5	-0.7
ROS	25	MLB	CHC	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						259	25	0	254	53	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	AA	CHC	—	270	232	35	10	1	7	32	93	4	0	0	151	265	293	558	142	209	34	12	257	55	-14	+0	+0	-5	+8	-1.1
TOT	25	AA	CHC	—	443	383	63	17	1	10	50	149	6	1	0	164	271	292	563	128	233	34	11	259	56	-22	+0	+0	-8	+13	-1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	CHC	31%	364	321	61	14	1	8	36	114	4	4	1	190	280	315	594	125	262	31	10	268	63	-15	+0	+0	-7	+10	-1.1
2028	27	MLB	CHC	42%	387	342	66	15	1	8	38	119	4	5	1	193	281	313	594	120	264	31	10	272	66	-15	+1	+0	-7	+11	-1.0
2029	28	MLB	CHC	48%	400	353	68	15	1	9	40	122	4	5	1	193	282	317	599	125	265	30	10	274	68	-15	+1	-1	-7	+11	-1.1
2027	26	MLB	CHC	31%	113	100	18	4	0	2	11	35	1	1	0	180	268	280	548	100	263	31	10	262	58	-5	+0	+0	-2	+3	-0.4
2028	27	MLB	CHC	42%	163	144	28	6	0	4	16	50	2	2	0	194	284	319	603	125	265	31	10	266	62	-7	+0	+0	-3	+5	-0.5
2029	28	MLB	CHC	48%	191	168	32	7	0	4	19	58	2	2	1	190	280	304	584	113	266	30	10	267	63	-8	+0	-0	-3	+5	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	471	416	78	17	0	10	46	144	5	5	1	188	276	300	577	113	257	31	10	265	61	-21	+1	-0	-8	+13	-1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	107	23	0	14	63	199	7	7	1	186	274	300	574	113	255	31	10	265	61	-28	+1	-0	-12	+18	-2.2
Career	—			—	1876	1664	326	71	3	35	176	575	19	24	5	196	280	305	585	109	273	31	9	265	61	-82	+3	-1	-34	+53	-6.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	113	25	1	12	61	199	7	8	2	196	281	305	586	109	272	31	9	265	61	-28	+1	-0	-12	+18	-2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	110	94	23	4	0	1	15	36	1	1	1	245	355	319	674	74	386	33	14	316	100	-0	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
2025	24	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	438	376	97	20	0	8	52	94	4	8	1	258	354	375	729	117	318	21	12	329	110	+5	+1	—	—	+12	1.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#2Justin Smoaklast yr '20 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,750 PA	11	4,750	196	3	229	322	419	-85	-77	1.9	3.8
	/162	664	27	0	229	322	419	-11.9	-10.7	0.3	pk7: 6
#3Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
#3Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	/162	664	23	2	239	332	416	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
#4Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	474	10	6	193	279	315	-8	-2	-1.3	-0.7
	/162	664	14	8	193	279	315	-11.9	-2.1	-1.8	pk7: 0
#5Brennan Boeschlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,713 PA	6	1,713	48	22	250	303	400	-17	-35	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	19	9	250	303	400	-6.6	-13.6	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	21	9	246	305	405	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edgar Alvarez (OGILVIE)	25	45	35	45	50	164/271/292	128	233	10	1	34%	11%	56	-1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chantz Mack 2016 · AA	25	43→45	42→45	45	44	209/271/314	105	285	9	6	29%	7%	61	-1.0	215/288/326	111	295	11	5	29%	9%	72	-0.2	212/292/321	109	285	12	3	28%	10%	70	-0.2
✕Carlos Franco 2017 · AA	25	46→49	40→45	42→45	43	218/275/306	88	305	8	5	30%	7%	60	-1.0	214/265/340	126	324	16	3	37%	6%	66	-0.6	204/255/343	139	307	19	1	39%	6%	61	-0.8
✕Yoel Yanqui 2021 · A	25	46→50	40	50	43	218/274/312	94	302	7	13	29%	7%	62	-0.9	214/281/331	117	307	12	9	32%	8%	70	-0.3	198/272/315	117	279	13	6	32%	9%	59	-0.6
✕Jeremy Vasquez 2021 · AA	25	44→47	39→45	41→30	48	210/280/298	88	278	6	4	25%	8%	61	-1.0	217/278/322	105	280	9	3	24%	8%	66	-0.6	214/275/318	104	271	9	1	24%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Cole Moore 2023 · A	24	43	41→45	49→40	45	208/276/309	101	290	8	6	30%	8%	63	-0.9	207/286/310	103	329	8	5	36%	10%	67	-0.5	186/280/293	106	300	9	3	37%	11%	60	-0.4
✕Chase Calabuig 2021 · AA	25	48→56	37→40	45	47	221/296/294	72	312	5	8	29%	9%	67	-0.5	230/293/345	115	278	11	5	21%	8%	79	+0.3	239/301/363	125	278	12	3	18%	8%	82	+0.3
✕Preston Beck 2016 · AA	25	41→44	42→45	48→45	48	204/272/313	109	254	9	8	23%	8%	62	-0.9	215/268/319	104	272	9	6	23%	6%	61	-1.0	214/263/314	100	274	9	3	24%	5%	55	-0.9
✕Steele Walker 2021 · A	25	44→46	42→45	47→50	43	217/273/326	110	272	9	10	24%	6%	65	-0.7	215/268/339	124	260	14	10	23%	6%	66	-0.6	206/259/329	123	245	15	10	22%	6%	56	-0.6
✕Ernie De La Trinidad 2021 · AA	25	45→52	40	39→40	45	219/283/307	88	282	8	5	25%	7%	65	-0.7	222/285/332	110	315	11	8	31%	6%	72	-0.2	217/284/325	108	312	12	5	32%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Cornelius Randolph 2021 · AA	24	43→48	41→45	46→45	42	209/269/304	95	294	8	9	30%	7%	58	-1.2	206/266/322	116	338	12	12	39%	7%	62	-0.9	194/257/314	120	296	15	15	37%	8%	53	-0.5
✕Dylan Harris 2022 · A	25	43	39→45	45	48	200/289/283	82	299	7	10	32%	10%	62	-0.9	198/274/306	108	305	10	10	35%	9%	61	-1.0	157/236/276	120	240	13	9	38%	9%	36	-1.0
✕John Urick 2007 · A	25	44→46	43→45	42→30	44	214/279/332	117	286	10	2	28%	7%	70	-0.3	212/278/335	123	305	11	2	32%	7%	70	-0.3	204/273/331	127	295	12	0	33%	7%	67	-0.4
✕Carlos Penuelas 2013 · AAA	25	45	40→30	45→50	40	218/257/310	92	285	8	8	26%	5%	53	-1.5	243/292/323	80	305	6	11	21%	6%	72	-0.2	266/314/322	56	329	3	12	19%	5%	77	+0.1
✕D.J. Hicks 2015 · A	25	45→48	44→45	41→30	44	221/281/340	119	303	11	2	30%	8%	72	-0.2	209/269/298	89	302	7	3	31%	7%	56	-1.3	197/258/267	70	289	5	2	32%	7%	40	-1.5
✕Jeremy Synan 2011 · A	25	43→46	44→45	42→40	40	212/265/332	121	293	11	5	31%	6%	64	-0.8	215/274/328	113	299	8	6	29%	7%	66	-0.6	213/277/335	121	290	6	4	27%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Austen Wade 2021 · A	25	46	40	44→45	47	217/291/308	91	313	7	8	31%	9%	68	-0.5	204/281/296	92	278	8	8	27%	9%	61	-1.0	135/237/187	52	177	6	3	26%	12%	16	-0.8
✕Kevin Rivers 2014 · A	25	41	45	46→45	43	205/272/331	126	294	12	6	33%	8%	66	-0.6	208/265/320	112	291	8	6	29%	7%	60	-1.0	196/247/306	110	265	5	2	27%	6%	46	-1.2
✕Casey Grayson 2017 · A	25	47	36→40	45→40	56	217/312/287	70	295	4	3	25%	12%	72	-0.2	218/295/292	74	323	5	5	31%	10%	66	-0.6	212/284/275	63	324	5	2	33%	9%	53	-0.9
✕Francisco Plasencia 2009 · A	25	46→50	43→45	42→45	42	224/276/336	112	299	9	6	28%	6%	69	-0.4	219/274/329	110	302	10	7	29%	6%	66	-0.6	223/277/340	117	306	12	6	30%	6%	67	-0.4
✕Dariel Gomez 2021 · A	25	46→44	43→50	49→30	44	219/289/329	110	320	10	6	33%	8%	73	-0.1	180/249/308	128	345	13	2	48%	8%	51	-1.7	156/229/283	127	294	14	0	49%	8%	34	-1.6