Edgar Alvarez
1B Knoxville Smokies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+CHC | 110 | .245/.355/.319 | 1 | 1 | 52 | — | .202/.282/.263 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+CHC | 438 | .258/.354/.375 | 8 | 8 | 64 | — | .216/.287/.303 |
| 2026 | 25 | AACHC | 426 | .202/.346/.361 | 11 | 1 | 60 | — | .171/.275/.298 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBCHC | 3 | .196/.283/.304 | 0 | 0 | 67 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBCHC | 45 | .197/.284/.306 | 1 | 0 | 68 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 110 | 94 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 245 | 355 | 319 | 674 | 74 | 386 | 33 | 14 | 316 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 438 | 376 | 97 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 52 | 94 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 258 | 354 | 375 | 729 | 117 | 318 | 21 | 12 | 329 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | — | 426 | 346 | 70 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 72 | 115 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 346 | 361 | 707 | 159 | 263 | 27 | 17 | 323 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 110 | 99 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 282 | 263 | 544 | 61 | 356 | 41 | 9 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 438 | 393 | 85 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 113 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 216 | 287 | 303 | 590 | 87 | 276 | 26 | 8 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 426 | 369 | 63 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 49 | 140 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 275 | 298 | 573 | 127 | 236 | 33 | 12 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 110 | 99 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 282 | 263 | 544 | 61 | 358 | 41 | 9 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 110 | 94 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 245 | 355 | 319 | 674 | 74 | 386 | 33 | 14 | 316 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 438 | 393 | 85 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 113 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 216 | 287 | 303 | 590 | 87 | 282 | 26 | 8 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 438 | 376 | 97 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 52 | 94 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 258 | 354 | 375 | 729 | 117 | 318 | 21 | 12 | 329 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 426 | 369 | 63 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 49 | 140 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 275 | 298 | 573 | 127 | 241 | 33 | 12 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | Knoxville Smokies | — | 426 | 346 | 70 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 72 | 115 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 346 | 361 | 707 | 159 | 263 | 27 | 17 | 323 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 110 | 98 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 204 | 282 | 265 | 547 | 61 | 356 | 41 | 9 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 438 | 396 | 85 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 113 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 215 | 287 | 301 | 588 | 86 | 276 | 26 | 8 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 426 | 370 | 63 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 49 | 140 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 170 | 275 | 297 | 572 | 127 | 236 | 33 | 12 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 110 | 98 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 204 | 282 | 265 | 547 | 61 | 356 | 41 | 9 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 438 | 396 | 85 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 113 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 215 | 287 | 301 | 588 | 86 | 276 | 26 | 8 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 426 | 370 | 63 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 49 | 140 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 170 | 275 | 297 | 572 | 127 | 236 | 33 | 12 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | CHC | 2% | 380 | 336 | 66 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 38 | 120 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 195 | 282 | 303 | 585 | 108 | 277 | 32 | 10 | 268 | 67 | -15 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +8 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | CHC | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 283 | 304 | 587 | 108 | 279 | 33 | 0 | 269 | 67 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | CHC | 27% | 167 | 147 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 52 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 196 | 283 | 305 | 588 | 109 | 277 | 31 | 10 | 269 | 68 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | CHC | 27% | 45 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 284 | 306 | 590 | 109 | 279 | 31 | 9 | 270 | 68 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 45 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 267 | 317 | 584 | 122 | 269 | 31 | 9 | 270 | 63 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 115 | 29 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 266 | 314 | 580 | 120 | 269 | 31 | 9 | 270 | 63 | -25 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1296 | 1146 | 224 | 50 | 1 | 22 | 126 | 399 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 195 | 281 | 298 | 580 | 103 | 274 | 31 | 10 | 261 | 63 | -12 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +7 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 113 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 63 | 200 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 197 | 283 | 301 | 584 | 104 | 276 | 31 | 10 | 261 | 63 | -25 | +1 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 426 PAwOBA .319 → .257 (−61)K% 27.0% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 11.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 14.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 7.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.80% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .319 → .257; ISO .159 → .135; BABIP .263 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 438 PAwOBA .325 → .263 (−62)K% 21.5% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.46% | ÷1.051 | ×1.270 | — | — | 25.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.87% | ÷1.042 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 8.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.47% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×0.988 | 21.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.007 | ×0.988 | 5.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.007 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.84% | ÷1.106 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.03% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .325 → .263; ISO .117 → .090; BABIP .318 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 110 PAwOBA .305 → .245 (−60)K% 32.7% → 41.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.73% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 41.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.73% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.03% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×1.043 | ×0.998 | 29.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.034 | ×0.810 | ×1.043 | ×0.998 | 5.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.850 | ×1.043 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .305 → .245; ISO .074 → .058; BABIP .386 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).