Paul Gutierrez-Contreras II

Paul Gutierrez-Contreras IIOF Tampa Tarpons

Age 21 R/R A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 85 proj PA

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .297 / .343

PA85

HR2

K%25

BB%8

ISO116

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	74	60	17	1	1	2	10	10	2	4	2	283	403	433	836	150	300	14	14	369	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	74	63	17	1	1	2	7	14	2	4	2	270	361	413	774	143	280	19	9	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	74	63	17	1	1	2	7	14	2	4	2	270	361	413	774	143	306	19	9	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	74	60	17	1	1	2	10	10	2	4	2	283	403	433	836	150	300	14	14	369	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	74	65	17	1	1	2	7	14	2	4	2	262	361	400	761	138	280	19	9	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	74	65	17	1	1	2	7	14	2	4	2	262	361	400	761	138	280	19	9	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	184	166	39	5	2	4	14	45	2	4	1	229	299	346	645	116	290	24	8	290	83	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	188	169	39	5	2	4	15	46	2	4	1	232	302	353	654	121	291	24	8	294	85	-3	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	304	273	64	8	3	7	24	73	4	7	1	234	304	358	662	125	292	24	8	297	87	-5	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	386	348	82	11	4	9	30	93	5	8	2	235	306	363	669	128	293	24	8	300	89	-5	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	434	391	92	13	4	10	34	104	6	9	2	236	307	367	673	131	293	24	8	302	90	-5	+1	+0	-3	+9	0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	463	417	99	14	4	11	37	110	6	10	2	236	307	369	676	132	292	24	8	303	91	-5	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	475	428	100	14	4	11	38	114	6	9	2	235	306	366	672	131	292	24	8	301	90	-6	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	479	432	101	14	4	11	38	116	6	8	2	233	304	361	666	128	291	24	8	299	88	-7	+1	-1	-3	+10	0.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	474	427	100	14	4	11	38	116	6	6	2	231	301	355	656	124	289	24	8	295	86	-8	+0	-1	-3	+10	-0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	467	422	96	13	4	10	37	116	5	4	1	228	298	347	645	119	287	25	8	290	83	-10	+0	-2	-3	+10	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	65	59	14	2	1	1	5	16	1	1	0	233	303	358	661	125	291	25	8	297	85	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	147	133	30	4	1	3	11	35	2	3	1	235	305	364	670	130	292	24	7	300	87	-2	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	204	183	44	6	2	5	16	49	3	4	1	237	307	370	677	133	293	24	8	303	89	-3	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	238	214	51	7	2	6	19	57	3	5	1	237	308	373	681	136	293	24	8	305	90	-3	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	258	232	56	8	2	7	21	61	3	5	1	238	309	375	684	138	293	24	8	306	91	-3	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	261	235	56	8	2	7	21	63	3	5	1	237	308	373	680	136	292	24	8	304	90	-3	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	262	236	55	8	2	6	21	63	3	4	1	235	306	368	673	133	291	24	8	302	88	-4	+0	-0	-2	+6	0.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	253	228	53	7	2	6	20	62	3	3	1	232	303	361	664	129	290	25	8	298	86	-4	+0	-1	-2	+5	-0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	245	221	51	7	2	6	19	61	3	2	1	229	299	353	652	124	288	25	8	293	83	-5	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1933	1741	410	57	16	47	153	467	24	32	8	235	306	368	674	132	294	24	8	301	88	-27	+3	-2	-12	+42	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	138	19	5	16	51	157	8	11	3	236	305	368	673	132	294	24	8	301	88	-9	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3829	3447	808	109	35	88	305	923	49	71	17	234	306	363	669	129	293	24	8	299	88	-54	+7	-4	-23	+81	0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	138	19	6	15	52	157	8	12	3	236	307	366	673	130	296	24	8	299	88	-9	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.0	2,017	46	36	234	301	362	-12	+0	1.8	1.8
/162	664	15	12	-4.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Dylan Carlsonlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,987 PA	3.0	1,987	43	16	233	312	372	-9	-22	0.8	0.8
/162	664	14	5	-3.0	-7.4	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Paul Gutierrez-Contreras II (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	227/297/343	115	290	2	2	25%	8%	83	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Christian Villanueva 2012 · A	21	45→47	44→55	53→50	41	221/269/340	119	276	11	16	24%	5%	71	-0.8	222/273/353	131	287	13	9	27%	5%	76	-0.4	228/286/406	177	263	24	3	23%	6%	93	+0.6
✕Ramon Alvarado 2006 · A	21	44	44→45	49→50	44	216/294/338	122	281	11	10	26%	7%	81	-0.1	204/268/307	103	274	10	9	28%	6%	63	-1.3	147/203/227	80	183	12	9	27%	4%	22	-0.8
●Cody Freeman 2022 · A	21	44→54	41→50	53→50	48	212/289/312	100	263	9	11	22%	8%	73	-0.6	206/260/326	120	247	14	9	22%	6%	65	-1.2	257/301/394	137	287	15	10	16%	5%	94	+0.6
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	46→49	42→50	57→50	43	224/279/341	116	300	8	15	27%	6%	74	-0.5	220/277/337	117	289	10	12	26%	6%	73	-0.6	232/281/372	140	285	16	15	24%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Daz Cameron 2018 · A	21	42→48	45→50	53→55	40	206/268/336	130	291	12	19	32%	6%	70	-0.8	209/279/335	126	306	11	17	33%	7%	74	-0.5	227/297/394	166	289	18	26	27%	8%	92	+0.3
✕Matthew Lugo 2023 · A	22	47→50	46→55	52→50	40	233/278/366	133	296	13	13	26%	5%	80	-0.2	225/274/372	147	307	15	14	30%	5%	80	-0.1	219/277/384	165	302	17	15	32%	6%	81	-0.1
✕Felix Reyes 2022 · A	21	41→51	43→50	49→45	38	204/270/315	111	285	10	12	31%	5%	66	-1.1	200/240/310	110	252	12	7	26%	4%	53	-2.1	241/269/392	150	282	18	8	21%	3%	81	-0.0
✕Alexis Hernandez 2024 · A	21	44→50	39→50	52→50	48	209/282/296	87	276	7	15	26%	8%	66	-1.1	216/289/327	111	296	11	18	29%	8%	76	-0.4	220/295/346	126	292	14	18	28%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	43→53	46→55	59→55	39	215/259/351	136	270	13	15	26%	4%	70	-0.9	243/280/401	158	309	17	22	26%	4%	89	+0.5	250/287/402	152	300	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
✕Ryan Vilade 2021 · A	22	48→54	41→50	51→50	46	233/291/336	103	297	8	13	24%	7%	78	-0.3	232/291/324	92	302	6	11	23%	7%	75	-0.5	227/293/385	158	282	18	14	26%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Luis Matos 2023 · A	21	44→54	45→50	49→50	42	221/265/341	120	256	13	12	20%	5%	70	-0.8	240/292/380	140	260	15	12	14%	6%	89	+0.5	246/298/398	152	258	18	13	13%	6%	95	+0.7
✕Eguy Rosario 2021 · A	21	45→54	42→55	49→55	39	221/267/331	110	301	9	12	29%	5%	68	-1.0	240/299/381	141	317	13	20	27%	7%	92	+0.7	240/303/388	148	312	14	21	26%	7%	92	+0.5
●Jahmai Jones 2019 · AA	21	47→51	43→50	55→50	46	228/291/347	119	293	10	16	25%	7%	80	-0.1	206/267/305	99	276	8	12	27%	7%	62	-1.4	250/346/426	175	326	16	18	26%	11%	116	+1.4
✕Alex Call 2017 · A	22	48→47	41→50	48→50	44	231/288/334	102	295	8	12	24%	6%	76	-0.4	197/258/303	106	272	9	8	29%	6%	59	-1.7	235/338/356	121	285	11	12	20%	12%	102	+0.8
✕Evan Van Hoosier 2015 · A	21	47	44→50	56→50	44	229/282/358	129	287	10	10	23%	6%	80	-0.2	230/274/338	108	308	6	9	26%	5%	72	-0.7	232/275/343	110	324	5	10	28%	4%	70	-0.3
✕Kenedy Corona 2021 · A	21	46→42	42→50	53→55	46	221/284/328	107	271	8	14	21%	6%	74	-0.5	210/267/329	119	292	12	21	31%	6%	68	-1.0	203/263/338	135	278	15	26	31%	6%	66	-0.8
✕Josh Elander 2013 · A	22	44→50	43→50	50→45	47	217/286/333	116	262	10	7	21%	7%	76	-0.4	227/285/345	118	300	11	7	27%	7%	78	-0.3	228/284/354	125	302	13	8	28%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Phillip Ervin 2014 · A	22	47→51	48→50	54→55	46	236/300/377	141	294	16	14	25%	8%	91	+0.7	207/275/323	116	264	10	20	24%	7%	70	-0.9	240/304/385	144	304	14	21	24%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Jeter Downs 2019 · A	21	42→41	43→50	52→55	44	208/273/317	109	269	11	18	26%	7%	68	-1.0	210/276/360	150	277	17	18	29%	7%	79	-0.2	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
●Daylen Lile 2024 · A	21	44→54	44→55	55	43	213/273/340	127	293	10	15	30%	7%	72	-0.7	244/298/387	143	300	11	16	22%	6%	92	+0.7	254/307/414	160	300	13	17	19%	6%	101	+1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps