Aaron Watson

P ACL Reds

Age 20 RHP ROK peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

Scout OFP46ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	19	MIX2 levels	10	6	38	5.45	2.71	25.9%	7.6%	—	K 18.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.96
2027PROJ	20	MLBCIN	4	4	27	4.48	4.48	19.7%	8.2%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBCIN	3	3	18	4.37	4.30	20.8%	7.9%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff52Control50Command60FB velo52

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 92%

CompsRobert Colina (age 20) · Peyton Remy (age 21) · Porter Hodge (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%19.7%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%11.4%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL5050

CMD2560

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	6	38	185	48	14	3	60%	3.8	18.0%	9.2%	8.8%	2.2%	5.45	3.96	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	6	38	185	48	14	3	60%	3.8	18.0%	9.2%	8.8%	2.2%	5.45	3.96	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	6	38	185	48	14	3	60%	3.8	25.9%	7.6%	18.4%	1.6%	5.45	2.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	CIN	4	4	27	114	22	9	3	100%	6.8	19.7%	8.2%	11.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.48	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	CIN	6	6	36	152	32	12	4	100%	6.0	20.8%	7.9%	13.0%	2.9%	4.37	4.30	+0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	CIN	3	3	18	76	16	6	2	100%	6.0	20.8%	7.9%	13.0%	2.9%	4.37	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	18	75	16	6	2	100%	5.9	20.8%	7.9%	13.0%	2.9%	4.37	3.92	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	181	68	23	100%	6.3	20.8%	7.9%	13.0%	2.9%	4.37	3.92	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		10	6	38	185	33	17	4	60%	3.8	18.0%	9.2%	8.8%	2.2%	5.45	3.96	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	32	200	974	176	90	22	60%	3.8	18.0%	9.2%	8.8%	2.2%	5.45	3.96	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	19.7%	8.2%	2.9%	—	4.30	20.8%	13.0%	36	-0.18	—	—	—
Robert Colina R 2021 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	19.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.312	3.69	21.5%	12.7%	111	-0.73	3.25	266	85
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	84
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.39	24.3%	10.6%	249	-0.81	2.95	349	84
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	81
Jake Odorizzi R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	18.0%	6.6%	2.5%	.281	3.84	22.3%	15.2%	525	+0.04	3.16	1,246	81
Francys Peguero R 2016 · 3.38 FIP	20	SP-	3.38	17.0%	4.6%	2.1%	.305	4.93	15.6%	9.0%	116	+1.55	2.85	293	81
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	81
Melvin Rodriguez R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	18	SP-	3.51	17.3%	7.9%	1.6%	.291	5.44	15.4%	-0.5%	89	+1.93	3.51	135	81
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	81
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	81
Elieser Hernández R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	20	SP-	3.52	17.1%	6.5%	1.9%	.302	4.53	17.9%	9.2%	237	+1.01	3.52	792	81
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	81
Adolfo Oviedo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP-	3.74	17.2%	8.1%	1.9%	.272	4.90	12.6%	5.2%	124	+1.16	3.74	235	80
Miguel Rodriguez R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	20	SP-	3.30	19.5%	10.1%	1.0%	.329	5.64	19.9%	7.7%	108	+2.34	2.60	272	80
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	80
Carlos D. Rodriguez R 2018 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP-	3.72	16.8%	7.2%	2.0%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	126	79
Roger Rodriguez R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	20	SP-	5.15	16.4%	9.6%	4.0%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	128	79
Jason Davis R 2002 · 3.31 FIP	22	SP-	3.31	18.3%	6.7%	1.7%	.250	4.62	13.3%	5.4%	320	+1.31	2.67	461	79
Kyle Weatherly R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP-	3.78	14.2%	7.1%	1.8%	.307	4.37	13.3%	1.6%	169	+0.59	3.78	207	79
Joelvis Del Rosario R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	20	SP-	3.76	22.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.315	4.97	14.6%	6.0%	197	+1.21	3.13	286	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	20.3%	8.0%	1.13	4.42
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*