Elieser Hernández
P
Gwinnett Stripers
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 214 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA5.21
FIP4.46
xFIP6.00
SIERA5.99
K%21.1%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%12.3%
IP22
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p3523.2%
K%
p1012.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.385
CH+1.7 (18%)
SI (7%)
FB-1.1 (50%)
CT-3.4 (31%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 10 | 7 | 46 | 199 | 46 | 11 | 3 | 17.1% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 3.94 | 3.52 | +0.7 |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 24 | 19 | 108 | 473 | 107 | 35 | 14 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.47 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | 18 | 13 | 73 | 300 | 88 | 22 | 6 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 3.68 | 3.99 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 37 | 11 | 83 | 364 | 62 | 32 | 17 | 15.8% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 5.18 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 30 | 24 | 130 | 554 | 154 | 39 | 20 | 26.3% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 3.59 | 3.75 | +2.3 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 6 | 6 | 26 | 106 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 32.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.16 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 17 | 17 | 76 | 312 | 88 | 15 | 16 | 26.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.69 | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 34 | 23 | 121 | 521 | 131 | 38 | 27 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.19 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 8 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 12 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 2.89 | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 15 | 6 | 44 | 178 | 42 | 13 | 7 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 4.06 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 4 | 4 | 19 | 81 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 1.6% | 7.91 | 3.76 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 3 | 3 | 14 | 64 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 16.5% | 13.1% | 1.7% | 4.50 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | MIA | 22 | — | 22 | 92 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 5.27 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 36 | 156 | 30 | 16 | 4 | 19.1% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 4.97 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 21 | — | 21 | 89 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 5.01 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 206 | 137 | 750 | 3194 | 696 | 245 | 126 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 37 | 200 | 852 | 186 | 65 | 34 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Elieser Hernández (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.83 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 21 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 85 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 83 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 81 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.31 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 131 | 80 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .270 | 4.84 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.31 | 2.99 | 227 | 80 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 80 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 78 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.33 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 200 | 78 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 78 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 78 |
| Jeff Manship R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 77 |
| Carlos Villanueva R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.67 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .259 | 4.50 | 19.0% | 15.9% | 74 | +0.83 | 3.67 | 135 | 76 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.83 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 3.54 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.29 | 3.54 | 348 | 76 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 76 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.49 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 149 | 76 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2029 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 76 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.38 | 16.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | .303 | 3.55 | 19.7% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.83 | 2.65 | 283 | 76 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 76 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 75 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.