Elieser Hernández
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 214 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION15 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.66
FIP4.96
xFIP6.00
SIERA5.99
K%17.3%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%8.6%
IP15
K†4040
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p3523.2%
K%
p1012.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.385
CH+1.7 (18%)
SI (7%)
FB-1.1 (50%)
CT-3.4 (31%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 10 | 7 | 46 | 199 | 46 | 11 | 3 | 17.1% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 3.94 | 3.49 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 24 | 19 | 108 | 473 | 107 | 35 | 14 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.36 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | 18 | 13 | 73 | 300 | 88 | 22 | 6 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 3.68 | 3.98 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 37 | 11 | 83 | 364 | 62 | 32 | 17 | 15.8% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 5.18 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 30 | 24 | 130 | 554 | 154 | 39 | 20 | 26.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 3.59 | 3.88 | +2.3 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 6 | 6 | 26 | 106 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 32.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.16 | 3.73 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 17 | 17 | 76 | 312 | 88 | 15 | 16 | 26.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 3.69 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 34 | 23 | 121 | 521 | 131 | 38 | 27 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.19 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 8 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 2.89 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 15 | 6 | 44 | 178 | 42 | 13 | 7 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.06 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 4 | 4 | 19 | 81 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 7.91 | 3.95 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 13 | 10 | 63 | 274 | 55 | 22 | 10 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | ATL | 15 | — | 15 | 65 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 78 | 339 | 66 | 28 | 12 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 16.5% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 4.99 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 216 | 144 | 799 | 3404 | 733 | 259 | 137 | 21.5% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 4.37 | 4.46 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 36 | 200 | 852 | 184 | 65 | 34 | 21.5% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 4.37 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Elieser Hernández (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 3.3% | — | 5.21 | 16.5% | 7.3% | 20 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 96 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 92 |
| Jake Peavy R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 85 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 85 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.37 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 4.4% | .283 | 4.35 | 14.9% | 5.3% | 144 | -1.02 | 3.91 | 577 | 84 |
| Nate Long R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 82 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.89 | 20.9% | 7.3% | 4.8% | .276 | 4.56 | 22.2% | 15.0% | 411 | -0.33 | 3.49 | 869 | 81 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.90 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 3.4% | .307 | 4.44 | 17.0% | 7.9% | 150 | -0.46 | 3.77 | 786 | 81 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 81 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.99 | 13.3% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 500 | 80 |
| Cory Riordan R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 80 |
| Kyle Davies R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 80 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2029 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.69 | 14.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .289 | 5.63 | 12.3% | 2.7% | 74 | +0.94 | 4.69 | 261 | 79 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 79 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.13 | 18.5% | 5.8% | 3.4% | .308 | 4.81 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 510 | +0.68 | 3.72 | 918 | 78 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.43 | 13.7% | 6.3% | 3.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 251 | 78 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 78 |
| Marco Estrada R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.32 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .213 | 4.55 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.23 | 4.04 | 710 | 78 |
| Nestor Molina R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.12 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 401 | 78 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.58 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% | .259 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 218 | +0.83 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.