Kevin Warunek — OGILVIE

Kevin Warunek P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 201 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%23.4%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	42	177	53	17	4	0%	1.6	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.5%	3.46	4.20	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	42	177	53	17	4	0%	1.6	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.5%	3.46	4.20	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	42	177	53	17	4	0%	1.6	29.9%	9.6%	20.3%	2.3%	3.46	3.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	16	0	20	87	26	13	4	0%	1.2	—	—	—	—	3.60	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	16	0	20	87	26	13	4	0%	1.2	—	—	—	—	3.60	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	PHI	4	0	5	18	6	3	0	0%	1.2	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.40	—
2026	23	A RAW	PHI	4	0	5	26	6	3	3	0%	1.2	23.1%	11.5%	11.5%	11.5%	11.57	8.95	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	PHI	8	0	11	43	14	7	1	0%	1.3	32.6%	16.3%	16.3%	2.3%	1.69	3.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PHI	37	0	38	162	39	14	5	0%	1.0	24.0%	8.9%	15.0%	3.0%	4.28	4.23	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	PHI	16	0	17	72	17	6	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	8.9%	15.0%	3.0%	4.28	4.23	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	70	17	6	2	0%	1.0	24.0%	8.9%	15.0%	3.0%	4.28	3.85	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	206	73	24	0%	1.1	24.0%	8.9%	15.0%	3.0%	4.28	3.85	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		42	0	62	264	67	30	10	0%	1.5	25.6%	11.2%	14.4%	3.8%	3.50	4.46	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	0	200	856	219	96	33	0%	1.5	25.6%	11.2%	14.4%	3.8%	3.50	4.46	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Warunek (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	23.4%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.23	24.0%	15.0%	38	-0.12	—	—	—
Andrew Mitchell L 2018 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	21.8%	7.5%	2.8%	.333	2.71	23.8%	15.8%	78	-1.04	2.51	119	90
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	85
Garvin Alston L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SU	4.29	19.7%	6.6%	3.7%	.333	4.74	16.4%	2.9%	84	+0.45	4.01	232	84
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.03	21.2%	11.6%	184	-0.26	3.43	311	84
Robert Garcia L 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SU	4.35	24.0%	11.4%	3.3%	.342	4.38	22.0%	10.4%	106	+0.03	2.21	452	84
Wyatt Short L 2018 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.262	4.01	20.5%	10.3%	91	+0.18	2.74	288	83
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	82
Hunter Schryver L 2018 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	23.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.259	4.22	19.9%	7.5%	106	+0.64	3.58	206	82
Houston Harding L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	20.2%	10.5%	4.7%	.307	4.87	17.2%	4.9%	158	-0.43	3.41	239	81
Mason Melotakis L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	25	SU	3.32	23.6%	9.2%	1.9%	.379	4.35	18.2%	7.1%	80	+1.03	3.32	142	81
Chris Cotton L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	20.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.288	4.17	9.7%	3.3%	61	+0.48	3.69	128	81
Jerry Vasto L 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	21.2%	9.5%	1.4%	.265	3.52	23.3%	12.8%	147	+0.24	2.89	206	81
Daniel Zamora L 2016 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	20.3%	10.8%	1.5%	.294	2.75	24.7%	16.8%	135	-0.82	2.15	310	81
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	80
Bryan Magdaleno L 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SU	3.40	23.9%	8.8%	2.2%	.375	3.84	25.0%	4.6%	122	+0.44	3.40	191	80
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	80
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	79
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	79
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	79
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	23.8%	9.1%	1.17	4.30
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84