Bear Harrison — OGILVIE

Bear HarrisonC Tampa Tarpons

Age 22 R/R A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 95 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .268 / .297

PA95

HR1

K%32

BB%8

ISO102

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	89	74	11	3	1	0	12	27	2	0	0	149	284	216	500	68	229	30	13	243	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	89	78	9	2	1	0	8	37	2	0	0	115	216	167	383	51	197	42	9	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	89	78	9	2	1	0	8	37	2	0	0	115	216	167	383	51	214	42	9	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	89	74	11	3	1	0	12	27	2	0	0	149	284	216	500	68	229	30	13	243	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	89	79	9	2	1	0	8	37	2	0	0	114	216	165	380	51	197	42	9	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	89	79	9	2	1	0	8	37	2	0	0	114	216	165	380	51	197	42	9	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	199	180	37	7	2	3	15	65	2	3	1	198	270	300	570	102	289	33	8	260	62	-9	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	184	166	34	6	2	3	14	59	2	3	1	202	274	309	584	107	290	32	8	265	65	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYY	46%	296	267	55	10	3	5	23	93	4	5	2	206	278	318	595	112	291	31	8	270	69	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYY	52%	363	327	68	13	3	6	29	112	4	6	2	208	280	324	604	116	291	31	8	273	71	-12	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	407	367	77	14	3	8	32	124	5	7	3	210	282	329	611	119	291	30	8	276	73	-13	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	427	385	80	15	3	8	34	129	5	7	3	211	283	330	614	120	290	30	8	277	74	-13	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	437	394	82	15	3	8	35	133	5	7	3	209	281	326	607	117	289	30	8	274	72	-15	+0	-1	+8	+9	0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	435	393	81	15	3	8	34	133	5	7	3	206	278	319	598	113	288	31	8	271	69	-16	+0	-1	+8	+9	0.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYY	57%	431	390	79	15	3	7	34	133	4	7	4	203	275	312	586	108	286	31	8	266	66	-17	-0	-2	+8	+9	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	63	57	12	2	1	1	5	20	1	1	0	203	275	313	588	110	290	32	8	267	65	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYY	46%	137	123	25	5	1	2	11	43	2	2	1	206	278	322	600	115	291	31	8	271	69	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYY	52%	187	168	36	6	2	4	15	58	2	3	1	209	281	329	610	120	291	31	8	275	71	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	221	199	42	8	2	4	17	67	3	4	1	211	283	334	617	123	291	30	8	278	73	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	232	209	45	8	2	5	18	70	3	4	1	212	284	335	619	124	290	30	8	279	74	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	237	213	45	8	2	5	19	72	3	4	2	210	282	330	612	121	289	30	8	276	72	-8	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	231	209	43	8	2	4	18	71	2	4	2	207	279	324	603	117	288	31	8	273	69	-8	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYY	57%	245	221	45	8	2	4	19	76	3	4	2	204	275	316	591	112	286	31	8	268	66	-10	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1553	1399	293	53	14	29	122	477	19	26	10	209	282	330	611	120	293	31	8	274	68	-55	+1	-2	+28	+34	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	122	22	6	12	51	200	8	11	4	208	281	328	609	119	292	31	8	274	68	-23	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3164	2854	582	108	25	54	250	984	37	50	22	204	277	316	593	112	288	31	8	269	68	-110	+1	-4	+55	+67	0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	119	22	5	11	51	202	8	10	5	203	276	314	590	111	287	31	8	269	68	-23	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.5	1,648	29	27	208	277	322	+29	+20	1.6	1.6
/162	664	12	11	+11.9	+8.1	0.7	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bear Harrison (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	197/268/297	101	289	1	1	32%	8%	62	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→47	39→45	48→50	45	184/277/270	87	267	6	10	31%	8%	60	-1.6	204/274/301	97	277	7	11	27%	6%	65	-1.2	213/284/310	97	279	9	16	25%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/293/300	81	280	8	4	23%	7%	72	-0.7	211/298/265	54	265	5	1	21%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	42	41→40	46→45	40	203/258/299	95	286	8	8	31%	6%	57	-1.8	200/263/285	85	289	7	9	31%	7%	56	-1.9	185/254/258	73	266	7	8	31%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Jack Brannigan 2023 · A	22	42	43→50	48→50	43	204/277/310	106	298	11	13	33%	8%	68	-1.0	202/279/357	155	294	19	17	36%	8%	80	-0.2	186/267/343	157	262	20	18	36%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	194/232/294	100	263	8	10	29%	4%	46	-2.6	197/236/287	90	278	6	9	30%	5%	45	-2.7	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Chris Roller 2019 · A	22	39	41→45	51→55	42	190/265/292	102	283	8	14	34%	8%	59	-1.6	204/267/311	107	290	7	12	30%	6%	63	-1.3	179/266/281	102	259	10	19	32%	8%	57	-1.0
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2024 · A	21	38→44	41→50	52→50	43	182/258/286	104	279	7	9	35%	8%	55	-1.9	220/276/370	150	298	17	10	31%	6%	81	-0.1	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Luca Tresh 2022 · A	22	44→42	41→50	49→40	39	209/261/310	101	312	8	7	35%	6%	61	-1.5	211/273/348	137	275	17	4	28%	8%	75	-0.5	201/265/338	137	254	18	2	28%	7%	67	-0.7
✕Jack Payton 2024 · A	22	45	40→45	51→45	38	216/272/307	91	306	8	9	31%	5%	65	-1.2	213/291/319	106	300	9	6	30%	8%	75	-0.5	211/289/318	107	294	9	6	29%	8%	73	-0.3
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	290	5	6	30%	6%	55	-2.0	200/254/277	77	265	5	3	25%	5%	51	-2.3	195/253/281	87	245	8	0	23%	5%	49	-0.8
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	42	40→50	49→40	44	206/262/301	95	270	7	6	26%	6%	59	-1.6	193/252/308	115	279	11	4	33%	6%	58	-1.7	215/280/358	143	272	16	1	27%	7%	77	-0.1
✕Frank Rodriguez 2024 · A	22	35	42→45	47→30	38	180/236/279	99	250	10	4	32%	5%	45	-2.7	188/246/274	86	257	8	4	29%	6%	47	-2.5	183/244/267	84	241	9	1	27%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Max George 2017 · A	21	40→39	40→45	47→55	44	191/279/286	95	286	8	10	33%	8%	64	-1.3	187/268/298	111	251	10	19	28%	7%	62	-1.4	166/254/289	123	223	13	23	31%	8%	53	-1.3
✕Braulio Vasquez 2021 · A	22	42	39→40	44→65	38	197/260/278	81	313	6	7	37%	6%	53	-2.1	207/282/301	94	302	7	30	31%	8%	68	-1.0	200/280/292	92	287	6	42	30%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	42	200/270/298	98	297	8	11	33%	8%	62	-1.4	192/261/284	92	292	6	14	34%	8%	55	-1.9	143/221/238	95	216	5	25	34%	8%	30	-1.0
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	41	43→50	46→45	38	204/251/318	114	286	10	7	32%	5%	59	-1.6	198/261/298	100	298	9	10	34%	8%	58	-1.7	169/237/256	87	252	9	10	35%	8%	38	-0.8
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	41→37	44→45	49→50	41	202/273/319	117	276	11	8	30%	6%	69	-0.9	208/282/339	131	278	13	10	29%	6%	77	-0.3	207/286/352	145	264	16	10	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Kevin Smith 2018 · A	22	39→45	44→55	53→50	34	195/232/312	117	284	11	8	35%	4%	51	-2.3	208/251/356	148	292	17	13	34%	5%	68	-1.0	209/261/367	157	281	19	15	32%	6%	73	-0.5
✕Jiandido Tromp 2016 · A	22	36→46	42→50	49→45	33	183/223/290	107	272	10	8	36%	4%	42	-2.9	214/256/355	141	285	14	9	29%	5%	70	-0.9	217/262/357	140	284	14	8	28%	5%	69	-0.7
✕Tucker Mitchell 2023 · A	22	38	43→50	51→45	37	182/262/286	105	304	11	11	41%	7%	57	-1.8	200/264/310	110	285	13	7	33%	6%	63	-1.4	188/246/284	96	261	13	5	32%	5%	48	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps