Grant Manning

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	25	MIX2 levels	26	6	66	4.39	2.96	29.2%	12.3%	—	K 21.7% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.87
2027PROJ	26	MLBWSH	40	0	42	4.80	4.80	22.3%	13.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ36% MLB	27	MLBWSH	20	0	21	4.77	4.79	22.4%	12.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBWSH	31	0	33	4.79	4.84	22.3%	12.6%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsGrant Black (age 27) · Layne Somsen (age 26) · Taylor Grover (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%22.3%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	6	66	284	83	35	4	23%	2.5	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	1.6%	4.39	3.87	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	6	66	284	83	35	4	23%	2.5	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	1.6%	4.39	3.87	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	6	66	284	83	35	4	23%	2.5	29.2%	12.3%	16.9%	1.4%	4.39	2.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	WSH	40	0	42	177	39	23	5	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.0%	9.2%	2.8%	4.80	4.80	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	WSH	55	0	58	246	55	31	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.7%	9.7%	2.9%	4.77	4.79	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	WSH	54	0	56	239	53	30	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	3.0%	4.79	4.84	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	WSH	20	0	21	89	20	11	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.7%	9.7%	2.9%	4.77	4.79	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	WSH	31	0	33	139	31	18	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	3.0%	4.79	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	54	230	51	29	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	3.0%	4.78	4.44	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	107	26	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	3.0%	4.78	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		26	6	66	284	62	39	4	23%	2.5	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	1.6%	4.39	3.87	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	18	200	865	188	119	14	23%	2.5	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	1.6%	4.39	3.87	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Manning (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	22.3%	13.0%	2.8%	—	4.81	22.3%	9.7%	115	+0.01	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	84
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	83
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	82
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	81
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	80
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	80
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	79
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	79
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	78
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	78
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	78
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	77
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	77
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	77
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.45	18.9%	6.4%	63	+1.27	1.93	233	77
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	77
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	77
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	76
Orlando Rodriguez R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	26	SW	4.40	23.0%	11.9%	3.1%	.278	4.67	13.7%	3.1%	41	+0.27	4.40	119	76
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	52	22.3%	12.7%	1.13	4.79
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27