Davis Chastain

P Great Lakes Loons

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 163 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ALAA	6	7	2.45	1.05	31.0%	3.4%	—	K 31.0% · BB 3.4% · FIP 0.92
2026	22	A+LAD	41	54	2.52	2.86	32.8%	12.5%	—	K 25.2% · BB 14.4% · FIP 3.97
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAD	36	38	4.67	4.67	24.7%	13.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBLAD	20	21	4.52	4.44	25.2%	12.0%	0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBLAD	31	33	4.38	4.30	25.4%	11.1%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsChris Perez (age 23) · Jackson Kelley (age 23) · Logan VanWey (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%24.7%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	6	0	7	29	9	1	0	0%	1.2	31.0%	3.4%	27.6%	0.0%	2.45	0.92	—
2025	21	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	6	0	7	29	9	1	0	0%	1.2	31.0%	3.4%	27.6%	0.0%	2.45	0.92	—
2025	21	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	6	0	7	29	9	1	0	0%	1.2	31.0%	3.4%	27.6%	0.0%	2.45	1.05	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	41	0	54	232	76	29	4	0%	1.3	25.2%	14.4%	10.8%	2.2%	2.52	3.97	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	41	0	54	232	76	29	4	0%	1.3	25.2%	14.4%	10.8%	2.2%	2.52	3.97	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	41	0	54	232	76	29	4	0%	1.3	32.8%	12.5%	20.3%	1.7%	2.52	2.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAD	36	0	38	160	40	22	5	0%	1.1	24.7%	13.5%	11.3%	2.9%	4.67	4.67	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	47	0	50	209	53	25	6	0%	1.1	25.2%	12.0%	13.1%	2.8%	4.52	4.44	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	48	0	50	212	54	23	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	11.1%	14.3%	2.8%	4.38	4.30	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	48	0	50	212	54	23	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	10.9%	14.6%	2.8%	4.32	4.28	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	47	0	49	208	53	23	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	11.0%	14.5%	2.9%	4.32	4.32	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	20	0	21	89	22	11	3	0%	1.1	25.2%	12.0%	13.1%	2.8%	4.52	4.44	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	31	0	33	139	35	15	4	0%	1.1	25.4%	11.1%	14.3%	2.8%	4.38	4.30	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	38	0	40	169	43	18	5	0%	1.1	25.5%	10.9%	14.6%	2.8%	4.32	4.28	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	40	0	42	177	45	19	5	0%	1.1	25.4%	11.0%	14.5%	2.9%	4.32	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		130	0	136	576	146	64	16	0%	1.0	25.4%	11.2%	14.2%	2.9%	4.37	3.94	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	214	94	23	0%	1.1	25.4%	11.2%	14.2%	2.9%	4.37	3.94	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		47	0	61	261	68	34	5	0%	1.3	25.9%	13.2%	12.7%	1.9%	2.51	3.63	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	0	200	856	221	113	16	0%	1.3	25.9%	13.2%	12.7%	1.9%	2.51	3.63	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davis Chastain (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	24.7%	13.5%	2.9%	—	4.34	25.4%	14.0%	150	-0.33	—	—	—
Chris Perez R 2008 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.7%	12.4%	2.8%	.269	3.71	22.5%	12.6%	180	-0.51	3.18	379	93
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.63	21.7%	10.9%	166	-0.17	3.17	219	92
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	91
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	91
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	91
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	91
Justin Yeager R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.96	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.37	3.32	265	90
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	90
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	89
Ryan Sublette R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	23	SU	3.74	27.3%	14.6%	2.0%	.301	5.27	19.9%	2.3%	149	+1.53	3.74	203	89
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	89
Brad Boxberger R 2012 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	27.5%	14.2%	2.4%	.284	3.44	33.4%	23.7%	150	-0.47	2.63	478	89
Jesen Therrien R 2016 · 3.98 FIP	23	SU	3.98	25.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.310	3.40	21.3%	15.8%	76	-0.58	2.72	192	88
Jacob Dorris R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	26.9%	12.4%	3.2%	.295	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	88	+0.42	4.16	130	88
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	88
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	87
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.50	21.7%	10.0%	142	+0.88	3.62	311	87
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	47	25.3%	11.6%	1.11	4.43
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*