Adrian Garcia

3B FCL Phillies

Age 20 S/R 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1798ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKDSL Phillies …	182	.238/.326/.356	2	12	24	—	.158/.232/.224
2025	18	ROKPHI	143	.262/.329/.369	0	3	30	—	.180/.238/.241
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBPHI	253	.212/.271/.299	2	5	61	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBPHI	26	.218/.279/.319	0	1	68	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBPHI	80	.222/.284/.334	1	2	73	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

K%61

ISO57

wRC+51

Speed49

Z-Con%45

Whiff%44

CompsAllan Castro (age 20) · Brainer Bonaci (age 20) · Angel Martínez (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj PA

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .269 / .296

PA44

HR0

K%26

BB%6

ISO87

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	182	160	38	7	3	2	16	23	5	12	2	237	326	356	682	119	265	13	9	310	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	143	130	34	6	4	0	10	28	3	3	2	262	329	369	698	108	333	20	7	315	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	182	165	26	4	2	1	11	28	5	12	2	158	232	224	456	67	178	15	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	143	133	24	4	2	0	7	40	3	3	2	180	238	241	478	60	258	28	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	182	165	26	4	2	1	11	28	5	12	2	158	232	224	456	67	182	15	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	—	182	160	38	7	3	2	16	23	5	12	2	237	326	356	682	119	265	13	9	310	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	143	133	24	4	2	0	7	40	3	3	2	180	238	241	478	60	258	28	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	—	143	130	34	6	4	0	10	28	3	3	2	262	329	369	698	108	333	20	7	315	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	182	164	26	4	2	1	11	28	5	12	2	159	232	226	458	67	178	15	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	143	132	24	4	2	0	7	40	3	3	2	182	238	242	480	61	258	28	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	182	164	26	4	2	1	11	28	5	12	2	159	232	226	458	67	178	15	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	143	132	24	4	2	0	7	40	3	3	2	182	238	242	480	61	258	28	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	253	232	49	8	3	2	16	66	3	5	1	212	271	299	570	87	284	26	6	259	61	-12	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	PHI	34%	75	69	16	3	1	1	5	19	1	2	0	217	278	316	594	99	285	25	7	268	68	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	PHI	48%	165	151	35	6	2	3	11	42	2	4	1	221	283	330	613	109	287	25	7	276	73	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	PHI	54%	260	238	53	9	2	5	17	66	3	6	2	225	287	342	629	117	288	25	7	282	77	-7	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	349	318	72	12	3	7	24	87	4	8	2	228	290	351	642	124	289	25	7	288	81	-8	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	PHI	56%	401	365	84	14	4	9	28	100	5	9	2	230	293	359	651	129	290	25	7	291	83	-8	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	PHI	56%	432	394	91	15	4	10	30	108	5	9	3	230	293	361	655	131	289	25	7	293	84	-8	+1	+0	+2	+9	0.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	445	406	93	16	4	10	31	111	5	10	3	229	292	359	651	130	289	25	7	291	83	-9	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	448	409	93	16	4	9	31	113	5	9	3	227	290	354	644	127	288	25	7	288	81	-10	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	PHI	53%	443	404	91	15	4	9	31	113	5	9	3	224	287	347	634	123	286	26	7	284	79	-11	+1	-1	+2	+10	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	PHI	34%	26	24	5	1	0	0	2	7	0	1	0	218	279	319	598	101	286	27	8	270	68	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	PHI	48%	80	74	16	3	1	1	5	20	1	2	0	222	284	334	618	112	287	25	6	278	73	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	PHI	54%	141	129	29	5	1	3	9	36	2	3	1	226	288	347	635	121	289	26	6	285	77	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	193	176	41	7	2	4	13	48	2	4	1	229	292	357	649	128	290	25	7	290	81	-4	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	PHI	56%	225	204	47	8	2	5	16	56	3	5	1	231	294	364	659	133	290	25	7	294	83	-4	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	PHI	56%	243	221	51	8	2	6	17	60	3	5	1	232	295	367	662	136	290	25	7	296	84	-5	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	246	224	51	8	2	6	17	62	3	5	1	230	294	365	658	134	289	25	7	294	83	-5	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	246	224	51	8	2	6	17	62	3	5	2	228	292	360	651	131	288	25	7	291	81	-5	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	PHI	53%	237	216	49	8	2	5	16	61	3	5	2	226	288	353	641	127	286	26	7	287	79	-6	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1637	1492	340	56	14	36	112	412	20	35	9	228	291	357	647	129	289	25	7	290	75	-37	+3	-1	+6	+35	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	135	22	6	14	44	164	8	14	4	228	290	356	646	128	290	25	7	290	75	-15	+1	-0	+2	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3387	3092	685	115	32	64	229	839	44	82	23	222	285	342	626	120	282	25	7	279	75	-72	+6	-2	+11	+66	1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	131	22	6	12	44	161	8	16	4	221	283	339	622	118	281	25	7	279	75	-15	+1	-0	+2	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKFCL Phillies · 143 PAwOBA .307 → .213 (−94)K% 19.6% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.58%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	28.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.99%	÷0.928	×0.620	—	×1.008	4.71%
HBP% /PA	2.10%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	1.52%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷1.004	×0.820	×0.990	×1.008	19.18%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.015	×0.720	×0.990	×1.008	4.16%
Triples /BIP	3.92%	÷1.150	×0.720	×0.990	×1.008	2.45%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.917	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 100, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .307 → .213; ISO .108 → .065; BABIP .333 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Phillies Red · 182 PAwOBA .304 → .204 (−100)K% 12.6% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.64%	÷0.989	×1.220	—	—	15.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.79%	÷0.983	×0.700	—	×1.008	6.31%
HBP% /PA	2.75%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.94%
Singles /BIP	18.98%	÷0.919	×0.680	×0.964	×1.008	13.64%
Doubles /BIP	5.11%	÷1.013	×0.600	×0.964	×1.008	2.94%
Triples /BIP	2.19%	÷1.071	×0.600	×0.964	×1.008	1.19%
Home runs /BIP	1.46%	÷0.913	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.76%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 84, 2B 103, 3B 114, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .304 → .204; ISO .119 → .066; BABIP .265 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Kiko Garcia'76-'85 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	12	34	232*	283*	343*	+14	+14	2.2	3.0
/162	664	5	14	+5.7	+6.0	0.9	pk7: 4
#4Luis Rivera'86-'98 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,453 PA	3.7	2,453	28	20	232*	291*	357*	+24	+5	1.2	2.3
/162	664	8	5	+6.4	+1.4	0.3	pk7: 3
#5Jeff Branson'92-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,720 PA	2.6	1,720	34	9	236*	291*	373*	+9	-3	0.8	1.8
/162	664	13	3	+3.4	-1.1	0.3	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.5	1,680	34	36	228	287	352	+6	+3	1.7	1.8
/162	664	13	14	+2.4	+1.2	0.7	pk7: 2
#6Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adrian Garcia (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	210/269/296	86	284	0	1	26%	6%	61	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	37→45	40→45	54→50	42	182/250/279	97	263	6	9	32%	7%	50	-2.3	207/280/322	115	282	9	13	28%	9%	71	-0.8	209/284/324	115	280	10	14	27%	9%	71	-0.6
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	40→46	38→45	53→50	43	192/253/278	86	262	5	13	27%	7%	51	-2.3	219/294/329	110	303	9	13	28%	9%	78	-0.3	221/301/335	114	300	11	14	28%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	42→50	41→50	50	45	204/264/307	103	268	7	10	26%	7%	61	-1.5	231/294/358	127	293	12	10	24%	7%	84	+0.2	236/284/389	154	280	16	12	22%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	42	193/245/268	75	263	5	9	28%	6%	45	-2.7	238/286/328	90	316	8	10	26%	6%	74	-0.6	253/308/344	91	321	4	24	21%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Jean Batista 2012 · A	20	42	40→55	50→45	36	208/237/299	91	278	6	8	28%	4%	48	-2.5	217/242/336	119	280	10	7	26%	3%	59	-1.7	220/234/364	144	272	12	6	24%	1%	61	-0.4
✕Javier Herrera 2024 · A	19	38	39→40	51→55	45	184/262/268	84	272	6	10	32%	9%	53	-2.1	204/298/290	86	279	5	15	26%	11%	71	-0.8	210/307/297	87	289	5	18	26%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Luis Liberato 2016 · A	20	37→47	37→50	53→50	42	177/241/251	73	261	4	13	32%	7%	40	-3.1	211/262/329	118	307	9	6	32%	7%	65	-1.2	221/286/368	148	299	15	9	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Miguel Gómez 2013 · A	20	39→49	37→50	48→40	43	188/248/260	72	247	3	6	24%	6%	45	-2.7	199/247/278	79	252	4	5	22%	5%	48	-2.5	272/289/402	130	307	13	1	16%	2%	89	+0.4
✕Karexon Sanchez 2008 · A	20	40→47	38→45	50	46	194/262/268	74	258	6	14	26%	8%	52	-2.2	208/274/317	109	299	10	11	32%	7%	68	-1.0	220/298/324	104	305	10	11	29%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Luis Suisbel 2023 · A	20	33→43	38→50	46→45	40	163/257/237	74	251	5	6	34%	7%	45	-2.7	200/279/328	128	306	15	5	37%	7%	73	-0.6	191/267/326	136	288	18	4	38%	7%	68	-0.8
✕Michael Beltre 2015 · A	20	40→50	35→45	50→60	43	187/269/245	58	279	2	12	31%	8%	51	-2.3	200/263/276	76	291	4	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	224/296/341	118	306	9	22	28%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Thayron Liranzo 2022 · A	19	43	37→50	49→30	47	202/280/280	77	287	4	8	29%	9%	62	-1.4	208/291/366	158	303	18	3	35%	10%	86	+0.3	203/298/375	172	290	20	1	35%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	41→44	36→50	48→45	43	194/262/264	70	258	3	9	25%	6%	51	-2.2	218/281/363	145	322	16	4	35%	7%	81	-0.1	210/279/360	150	310	18	4	36%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Riley Unroe 2016 · A	20	44→47	36→45	44→55	44	209/267/272	63	286	4	8	27%	7%	54	-2.0	197/265/266	69	286	5	12	30%	8%	53	-2.1	218/301/329	112	292	11	26	27%	10%	78	-0.1
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	36→44	40→50	47→50	46	175/264/271	96	263	7	8	34%	10%	55	-2.0	204/267/339	135	290	14	10	33%	7%	70	-0.8	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	41→51	40→45	55	44	198/266/291	93	280	8	16	30%	8%	59	-1.7	243/305/349	106	326	7	24	25%	8%	86	+0.3	269/328/372	103	341	7	29	22%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Jorge Barrosa 2021 · A	20	46→52	38→45	55	45	218/283/303	84	283	5	18	24%	6%	68	-1.0	233/297/347	114	294	9	19	23%	7%	83	+0.1	234/307/360	127	282	11	18	20%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	42→52	38→50	52→50	44	203/259/282	79	268	5	14	25%	7%	53	-2.1	228/290/353	125	327	10	8	31%	7%	82	-0.0	228/292/360	132	326	11	7	31%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Angelo Mora 2013 · A	20	41→51	34→45	50→45	39	194/231/251	57	258	1	14	25%	4%	34	-3.5	213/256/289	76	288	4	9	26%	5%	53	-2.1	259/294/363	103	333	5	4	23%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Nomar Fana 2023 · A	20	37	37→50	46→50	44	178/248/255	77	269	4	11	33%	8%	44	-2.8	184/260/286	102	287	10	12	36%	9%	56	-1.9	158/244/261	103	248	13	14	39%	10%	43	-1.0

Adrian Garcia

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps