Lorenzo Meola

SS San Jose Giants

Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 180 lbs A HR -15%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#393ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ASF	70	.273/.314/.470	3	3	46	—	.209/.243/.343
2026	22	ASF	547	.269/.357/.468	15	17	73	—	.211/.283/.358
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBSF	544	.219/.282/.351	12	11	78	0.5
2028PROJ38% MLB	24	MLBSF	155	.218/.282/.348	3	3	81	0.3
2029PROJ55% MLB	25	MLBSF	247	.220/.284/.352	5	5	82	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

ISO79

Speed76

Whiff%64

wOBA62

Z-Con%58

wRC+55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 93%

CompsJeferson Morales (age 23) · Tommy Field (age 24) · Alex Isola (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .279 / .348

PA210

HR4

K%27

BB%6

ISO132

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$26M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	San Jose Giants	—	70	66	18	4	0	3	4	17	0	3	1	273	314	470	784	197	326	24	6	345	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	San Jose Giants	—	547	476	128	40	5	15	52	133	13	17	5	269	357	468	825	200	338	24	10	362	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	70	67	14	3	0	2	3	24	0	3	1	209	243	343	586	134	288	34	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	547	492	104	31	4	11	36	181	13	17	5	211	283	358	641	146	293	33	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	70	67	14	3	0	2	3	24	0	3	1	209	243	343	586	134	293	34	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	San Jose Giants	—	70	66	18	4	0	3	4	17	0	3	1	273	314	470	784	197	326	24	6	345	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	547	492	104	31	4	11	36	181	13	17	5	211	283	358	641	146	304	33	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	San Jose Giants	—	547	476	128	40	5	15	52	133	13	17	5	269	357	468	825	200	338	24	10	362	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	70	67	14	3	0	2	3	24	0	3	1	209	243	343	586	134	288	34	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	547	493	104	31	4	11	36	181	13	17	5	211	283	357	640	146	293	33	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	70	67	14	3	0	2	3	24	0	3	1	209	243	343	586	134	288	34	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	547	493	104	31	4	11	36	181	13	17	5	211	283	357	640	146	293	33	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SF	0%	544	496	110	25	3	12	35	144	8	11	3	219	282	351	633	132	282	26	6	283	78	-14	+1	+4	+6	+12	0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SF	38%	412	376	83	19	2	9	27	108	6	8	2	222	285	358	643	135	284	26	7	287	81	-9	+1	+3	+4	+9	0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	SF	55%	446	407	91	20	3	10	30	116	6	9	3	224	288	362	649	138	284	26	7	290	82	-9	+1	+4	+5	+10	0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	SF	64%	463	422	95	21	3	11	32	119	6	10	3	225	289	364	653	139	284	26	7	292	83	-9	+1	+4	+5	+10	1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	SF	66%	470	428	96	21	3	11	33	121	6	10	3	225	290	363	653	139	284	26	7	292	84	-9	+1	+4	+5	+10	1.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	SF	67%	468	426	95	21	2	11	33	120	6	9	3	224	290	361	651	137	284	26	7	291	83	-9	+1	+3	+5	+10	0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	SF	66%	459	418	92	20	2	10	32	119	6	8	3	222	287	356	642	134	283	26	7	288	81	-11	+0	+2	+5	+10	0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	SF	65%	448	409	90	20	2	10	31	118	5	7	3	219	283	348	632	129	281	26	7	283	78	-12	+0	+1	+5	+10	0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	SF	65%	434	396	86	19	2	9	30	116	5	6	3	215	279	339	618	124	278	27	7	277	74	-13	+0	+1	+5	+9	0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	SF	38%	155	142	31	7	1	3	10	41	2	3	1	218	282	348	630	130	280	26	6	282	81	-4	+0	+1	+2	+3	0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	SF	55%	247	225	49	11	1	5	17	64	3	5	1	220	284	352	636	132	281	26	7	285	82	-5	+1	+2	+3	+5	0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	SF	64%	294	268	59	13	2	6	20	76	4	6	2	221	286	354	640	133	281	26	7	286	83	-6	+0	+2	+3	+6	0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	SF	66%	309	280	63	14	2	7	22	79	4	6	2	221	286	354	640	133	281	26	7	287	84	-6	+0	+2	+3	+7	0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	SF	67%	312	283	63	14	2	7	22	80	4	6	2	220	286	352	638	131	280	26	7	286	83	-6	+0	+2	+3	+7	0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	SF	66%	302	274	60	13	2	6	21	79	4	5	2	218	283	346	630	128	279	26	7	282	81	-7	+0	+1	+3	+7	0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	SF	65%	292	266	57	13	1	6	20	77	4	5	2	215	280	339	619	124	278	26	7	278	78	-8	+0	+1	+3	+6	0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	SF	65%	281	257	54	12	1	5	19	75	3	4	2	212	275	331	606	119	275	27	7	273	74	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2192	1995	436	97	12	45	151	571	28	40	14	219	283	347	630	128	281	26	7	282	79	-50	+2	+13	+23	+47	3.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	130	29	4	13	45	169	8	12	4	220	284	348	632	128	283	26	7	282	79	-15	+1	+4	+7	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4427	4032	888	205	24	98	301	1198	62	91	30	220	285	356	641	136	286	27	7	285	79	-88	+5	+23	+41	+83	6.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	130	30	4	14	44	176	9	13	4	220	283	355	638	135	286	27	7	285	79	-15	+1	+4	+7	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASan Jose Giants · 547 PAwOBA .356 → .276 (−80)K% 24.3% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.31%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	33.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.51%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	6.49%
HBP% /PA	2.38%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	1.84%
Singles /BIP	19.83%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.996	×0.990	17.98%
Doubles /BIP	11.66%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.996	×0.990	9.54%
Triples /BIP	1.46%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.996	×0.990	1.31%
Home runs /BIP	4.37%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	3.46%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .356 → .276; ISO .200 → .152; BABIP .338 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASan Jose Giants · 70 PAwOBA .335 → .236 (−99)K% 24.3% → 34.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.29%	÷0.962	×1.360	—	—	34.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.71%	÷1.055	×0.690	—	—	3.74%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.45%	÷1.007	×0.920	×1.050	—	21.53%
Doubles /BIP	8.16%	÷1.138	×0.830	×1.050	—	6.25%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.902	×0.910	×1.050	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.12%	÷1.358	×0.800	—	—	3.61%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 172, 1B 101, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .335 → .236; ISO .197 → .112; BABIP .326 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#4Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
/162	664	9	30	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.6	2,403	54	44	223	284	357	+26	+24	3.9	3.7
/162	664	15	12	+7.1	+6.6	1.1	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lorenzo Meola (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	218/279/348	131	282	4	4	27%	6%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→47	47→45	48→50	48	209/292/350	141	261	14	9	25%	8%	83	+0.1	206/282/335	129	268	13	9	27%	7%	76	-0.4	222/297/349	127	274	11	8	22%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Tommy Field 2011 · A	24	47→50	45	50→45	44	228/300/351	123	298	12	10	26%	7%	86	+0.3	229/294/350	121	293	12	8	25%	7%	83	+0.1	223/292/352	129	279	13	7	24%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Alex Isola 2021 · A	23	46→44	45→50	49→40	44	228/280/350	122	288	12	8	25%	6%	77	-0.3	216/283/360	144	273	19	4	27%	8%	82	-0.0	212/283/353	141	263	19	2	26%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Luis Santana 2023 · A	24	44	46→45	48→50	42	221/284/348	127	282	13	11	26%	6%	79	-0.2	210/265/327	117	265	13	7	25%	5%	67	-1.1	194/247/303	110	239	13	5	25%	5%	52	-1.2
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Taylor Featherston 2013 · A	23	47→46	44→50	51→50	44	226/291/350	124	304	11	11	28%	7%	82	-0.0	221/268/359	138	289	14	12	28%	5%	75	-0.5	213/256/352	139	273	14	12	27%	4%	67	-0.8
✕Graysen Tarlow 2024 · A	23	45	43→30	49→40	50	217/307/331	113	283	10	8	25%	9%	84	+0.1	211/291/285	74	299	6	6	29%	8%	68	-1.0	224/307/292	68	313	6	7	28%	8%	76	-0.1
✕Paul Vasquez 2008 · A	23	47	43→45	52→30	39	231/269/343	113	305	10	10	28%	5%	72	-0.7	230/268/333	103	291	8	5	23%	3%	69	-0.9	232/265/336	104	290	8	2	22%	2%	64	-0.4
✕Nevin Ashley 2008 · A	23	49→50	44→45	52→45	43	240/297/357	117	315	11	12	27%	7%	85	+0.2	215/287/306	91	295	7	8	28%	7%	70	-0.8	223/291/337	115	286	11	4	25%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Jack Marder 2012 · A	22	48	44→45	49→50	41	235/292/354	119	291	11	12	23%	4%	83	+0.1	240/299/357	117	292	10	13	21%	5%	86	+0.3	238/300/350	112	289	10	12	20%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	44	222/290/341	119	280	12	16	24%	7%	80	-0.2	214/272/298	84	283	6	12	25%	6%	62	-1.4	205/259/264	60	274	3	10	25%	6%	47	-0.7
✕Tony Delmonico 2010 · A	23	47→48	46→45	51→40	44	231/303/365	134	302	13	5	27%	7%	90	+0.6	225/310/332	107	300	11	5	27%	8%	86	+0.3	222/317/325	102	291	11	3	25%	9%	85	+0.1
✕R.J. Yeager 2023 · A	24	46	45	52→50	42	229/282/351	122	291	13	8	26%	6%	78	-0.3	216/273/325	109	254	11	10	19%	6%	69	-0.9	204/262/305	101	238	11	10	19%	6%	59	-1.2
✕Jared Serna 2024 · A	22	45→48	45	53→50	45	226/284/352	126	276	13	18	23%	7%	79	-0.2	214/271/321	107	261	11	15	22%	6%	68	-1.0	202/265/300	97	245	10	16	21%	6%	58	-1.4
✕Seth Mejias-Brean 2013 · A	22	46→53	47→45	53→45	45	230/284/365	135	276	14	8	22%	6%	82	+0.0	238/301/345	107	300	9	5	22%	8%	84	+0.1	238/306/340	102	302	8	5	22%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Corey Toups 2016 · A	23	49→50	41→45	56→50	46	234/295/343	109	305	7	17	25%	7%	81	-0.1	217/279/332	115	309	9	16	31%	7%	73	-0.6	206/271/319	113	301	10	16	33%	7%	64	-0.9
✕Tanner Schobel 2024 · AA	23	45→44	43→45	53→50	48	219/290/326	107	277	11	10	24%	8%	76	-0.4	200/271/309	109	265	11	11	27%	8%	65	-1.2	188/262/291	103	248	10	12	27%	8%	55	-1.4
✕Kody Hoese 2021 · A	24	46→50	44→45	50→40	46	229/288/350	122	281	12	6	23%	7%	80	-0.1	196/238/275	79	262	7	4	27%	5%	44	-2.8	229/285/355	125	284	13	1	23%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Dom Keegan 2024 · A	23	46→52	46→45	48→40	45	227/296/361	134	301	13	4	28%	8%	86	+0.3	221/290/346	125	307	12	3	30%	8%	80	-0.1	206/282/324	118	294	12	3	32%	8%	71	-0.5
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2021 · A	23	45→44	46→50	50→45	41	226/265/353	127	266	14	8	22%	4%	72	-0.7	227/267/376	149	272	18	3	24%	4%	79	-0.2	218/265/369	151	256	19	1	23%	4%	74	-0.4

Lorenzo Meola

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps