Dom Keegan — OGILVIE

Dom KeeganC Durham Bulls

Age 25 R/R 5'11" / 210 lbs AAA HR +6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION377 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP288

ISO125

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	21	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	26	23	6	0	0	2	2	6	1	0	0	261	346	522	868	261	267	23	8	381	144	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	21	ROK	FCL Rays	—	20	17	7	4	0	0	3	4	0	1	0	412	500	647	1.147	235	538	20	15	497	223	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.4
2023	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	207	173	44	11	0	8	28	42	4	0	1	254	371	457	827	202	288	20	14	367	134	+8	-0	—	—	+4	1.3
2023	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	241	200	63	9	4	5	31	48	3	2	0	315	415	475	890	160	377	20	13	386	147	+14	+0	—	—	+5	2.0
2023	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	66	53	18	4	0	3	10	14	1	0	0	340	446	585	1.031	245	405	21	15	440	184	+7	+0	—	—	+1	0.8
2024	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	442	375	107	23	3	9	50	90	7	0	0	285	380	435	814	149	343	20	11	358	129	+15	+0	—	—	+10	2.5
2025	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	297	266	64	16	2	10	24	91	3	0	0	241	311	429	739	188	320	31	8	324	105	+2	+0	—	—	+6	0.8
2025	24	ROK	FCL Rays	—	32	24	7	2	0	2	8	6	0	0	1	292	469	625	1.094	333	312	19	25	470	204	+4	-0	—	—	+1	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	26	24	5	0	0	2	1	9	1	0	0	208	269	458	728	250	257	35	4	307	94	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	20	18	5	3	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	278	350	444	794	167	422	30	10	349	122	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2023	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	207	184	38	9	0	6	17	59	4	0	1	207	288	353	641	147	252	29	8	276	73	-7	-0	—	—	+4	-0.3
2023	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	241	212	54	8	3	4	19	69	3	2	0	255	325	377	702	123	329	29	8	311	97	-1	+0	—	—	+5	0.5
2024	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	442	392	99	21	2	8	33	110	7	0	0	253	322	378	699	125	308	25	7	305	93	-4	+0	—	—	+10	0.6
2025	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	297	274	55	14	2	5	16	103	3	0	0	201	253	321	574	120	286	35	5	250	55	-16	+0	—	—	+6	-1.0
2025	24	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	32	27	5	1	0	2	5	9	0	0	1	185	312	444	757	259	238	28	16	353	125	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	46	42	11	3	0	2	3	14	1	1	0	262	326	476	802	214	346	30	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	46	40	13	4	0	2	5	10	1	1	0	325	413	575	988	250	393	22	11	432	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	514	454	106	19	4	12	42	147	8	2	1	233	310	372	682	139	308	29	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A RAW	3 teams	—	514	426	125	24	4	16	69	104	8	2	1	293	401	481	882	188	345	20	13	385	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	442	392	99	21	2	8	33	110	7	0	0	253	322	378	699	125	320	25	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	442	375	107	23	3	9	50	90	7	0	0	285	380	435	814	149	343	20	11	358	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	301	60	15	2	7	21	112	3	0	1	199	258	332	591	133	285	34	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	329	290	71	18	2	12	32	97	3	0	1	245	326	445	771	200	319	29	10	338	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	46	42	11	3	0	2	3	14	1	1	0	262	326	476	802	214	329	30	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	514	459	106	19	4	12	42	147	8	2	1	231	310	368	678	137	293	29	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	442	399	99	21	2	8	33	110	7	0	0	248	322	371	693	123	308	25	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	302	60	15	2	7	21	112	3	0	1	199	258	331	590	132	281	34	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	514	459	106	19	4	12	42	147	8	2	1	231	310	368	678	137	293	29	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	442	399	99	21	2	8	33	110	7	0	0	248	322	371	693	123	308	25	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	302	60	15	2	7	21	112	3	0	1	199	258	331	590	132	281	34	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	TB	—	377	331	54	3	2	9	37	145	9	6	1	163	265	266	531	103	254	38	10	236	46	-24	+1	+0	+7	+8	-0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA RAW	TB	—	163	137	27	3	1	6	22	41	4	0	1	197	325	365	690	168	233	25	13	317	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AAA RAW	TB	—	214	178	34	0	1	6	31	79	5	6	0	191	327	303	630	112	301	37	14	298	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	AAA MLE	TB	10%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		279	30	10	267	67	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	25	MLB CTX	TB	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						288	0	0	260	67	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	MLB A+C	TB	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	260	47	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	25	AAA MLE	TB	—	387	340	55	3	2	9	38	148	9	6	1	162	264	262	525	100	251	38	10	237	47	-25	+1	-0	+7	+8	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TB	42%	363	323	65	10	2	9	31	119	6	3	1	201	283	328	612	127	281	33	9	278	74	-11	+0	-0	+6	+8	0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	55%	387	344	70	11	2	10	34	124	6	4	1	203	286	334	621	131	282	32	9	281	76	-11	+0	-0	+7	+8	0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	61%	400	356	73	12	2	10	35	127	6	4	1	205	287	334	621	129	282	32	9	282	77	-11	+0	-1	+7	+9	0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	TB	62%	400	355	73	12	2	10	36	127	6	3	1	206	290	335	625	130	281	32	9	281	77	-11	+0	-2	+7	+9	0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	TB	63%	398	354	71	11	2	10	35	127	6	3	1	201	284	328	611	127	280	32	9	279	75	-12	+0	-2	+7	+9	0.2
2032	31	MLB MLE	TB	64%	374	332	66	10	2	9	33	121	6	2	0	199	283	322	605	123	277	32	9	274	72	-12	+0	-3	+7	+8	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	TB	42%	154	137	28	4	1	4	13	51	3	1	0	204	288	336	623	131	290	33	8	272	74	-5	+0	-0	+3	+3	0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	55%	211	188	39	6	1	6	18	68	3	2	0	207	287	346	633	138	290	32	9	276	76	-6	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	61%	244	216	44	7	1	6	22	78	4	2	0	204	289	329	618	125	290	32	9	277	77	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	TB	62%	249	221	47	8	1	7	22	79	4	2	0	213	296	353	648	140	290	32	9	276	77	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	TB	63%	251	223	46	8	1	6	22	80	4	2	0	206	289	332	621	126	288	32	9	274	75	-8	+0	-2	+4	+5	0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	TB	64%	238	211	43	7	1	6	21	77	4	2	0	204	288	332	620	128	285	32	9	270	72	-8	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1348	1197	247	40	6	35	118	433	22	11	0	206	289	338	627	131	288	32	9	274	78	-40	+2	-5	+24	+29	1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	119	19	3	17	57	209	11	5	0	206	290	338	628	132	288	32	9	274	78	-19	+1	-3	+12	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3663	3262	695	124	20	87	304	1131	55	22	7	213	291	343	634	130	292	31	8	283	78	-69	+2	-9	+42	+51	1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	123	22	4	15	54	201	10	4	1	212	291	342	633	130	293	31	8	283	78	-19	+1	-2	+12	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.1	1,379	35	11	204	283	332	+25	+0	2.3	2.3
/162	664	17	5	+11.9	+0.0	1.1	pk7: 2
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dom Keegan (OGILVIE)	25	45	55	40	48	191/275/304	113	279	7	3	34%	9%	67	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Martín Maldonado 2012 · AAA	25	46→51	43→50	41→40	43	225/290/332	107	287	11	4	25%	6%	78	-0.3	221/284/345	124	281	14	4	26%	6%	78	-0.3	216/293/363	148	265	18	1	25%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Tyler Marlette 2018 · AA	25	43	46→50	43→45	40	218/263/348	130	282	14	4	28%	5%	71	-0.8	220/273/338	118	292	13	6	28%	6%	72	-0.7	215/270/323	108	281	13	5	27%	7%	63	-1.1
✕Robert Emery 2023 · AA	26	46	44→45	38→30	44	222/305/341	120	312	11	4	30%	8%	86	+0.3	214/285/309	95	320	7	6	33%	7%	70	-0.8	180/246/214	33	296	0	0	36%	7%	33	-0.6
✕Ian Rice 2019 · AA	25	41→40	48→50	44→30	49	209/298/347	138	281	16	3	30%	10%	84	+0.2	201/275/300	99	287	9	5	31%	8%	65	-1.2	159/231/218	59	232	5	0	31%	7%	30	-1.7
✕Carlos M. Rodriguez 2008 · AAA	26	46→45	44→55	42→40	41	224/283/336	111	315	13	5	32%	7%	76	-0.4	233/296/325	92	332	9	6	30%	7%	78	-0.3	218/281/379	161	310	22	2	36%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Tim Federowicz 2013 · MLB	25	46→50	43→50	42→40	45	223/283/335	112	287	10	2	26%	7%	75	-0.5	230/283/374	144	305	16	3	29%	6%	84	+0.2	234/284/363	129	303	14	3	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Chadwick Tromp 2020 · AAA	25	46	43→45	41→40	47	226/290/340	113	279	11	5	23%	7%	79	-0.2	213/256/352	139	268	18	4	27%	5%	69	-0.9	214/271/337	122	266	14	0	25%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Ryan Casteel 2016 · AAA	25	47→49	48→55	44→40	39	237/277/379	142	308	17	5	29%	5%	83	+0.1	223/261/331	108	306	10	5	29%	5%	65	-1.2	212/260/355	143	277	18	0	30%	6%	68	-0.6
✕Anthony Recker 2009 · AA	25	46→49	46→50	42→45	39	226/280/363	137	325	13	3	34%	6%	80	-0.1	226/284/371	145	314	16	4	31%	7%	84	+0.2	223/288/376	153	295	18	4	29%	8%	85	+0.1
✕Cameron Rupp 2014 · AAA	25	44→48	44→55	44→30	40	220/272/337	117	302	12	3	31%	6%	72	-0.7	212/270/341	129	288	15	3	30%	7%	72	-0.7	231/297/402	172	296	21	1	29%	8%	92	+0.4
✕Luke Montz 2008 · AA	25	38→45	48→55	43→40	43	200/265/342	141	263	16	4	30%	7%	71	-0.8	201/264/325	124	254	14	3	26%	8%	66	-1.1	201/276/399	198	236	27	4	28%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Alex Isola 2023 · AA	25	42→45	50	43→40	48	218/287/363	144	270	19	3	26%	9%	84	+0.1	214/279/337	123	270	14	6	25%	8%	74	-0.5	204/270/318	114	256	13	5	25%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Scott Manea 2022 · AA	26	46→42	46→45	36→30	47	229/310/357	128	302	15	4	28%	9%	91	+0.7	204/288/300	96	306	9	5	33%	9%	70	-0.9	162/258/229	68	258	6	0	36%	10%	42	-1.6
✕Luis Exposito 2012 · AAA	25	46→49	43→50	38→30	43	224/272/333	110	282	10	3	24%	6%	70	-0.8	215/263/319	104	276	9	3	25%	6%	63	-1.3	204/255/301	97	263	8	0	25%	6%	54	-0.8
✕Tony Sanchez 2014 · MLB	26	47→49	45→50	42→40	44	229/292/356	127	289	11	3	24%	6%	84	+0.1	211/278/330	119	274	12	4	26%	7%	73	-0.6	231/287/319	89	313	8	1	27%	6%	70	-0.4
✕Dusty Ryan 2010 · MLB	25	44→46	49→50	45→40	43	218/287/362	145	314	17	5	35%	8%	83	+0.1	206/282/338	132	327	13	5	38%	9%	76	-0.4	181/267/309	128	299	11	2	40%	9%	62	-0.6
✕Rylan Bannon 2021 · AAA	25	44	46→50	45→50	46	219/284/352	133	275	13	7	25%	8%	80	-0.2	191/272/326	135	244	16	12	28%	9%	70	-0.8	191/289/327	136	253	16	12	29%	11%	75	-0.4
✕Kevin Richardson 2006 · AA	25	47	44→50	43→40	40	221/296/333	112	328	12	6	34%	7%	80	-0.1	215/277/352	137	295	17	4	32%	6%	78	-0.3	203/264/340	136	272	18	2	31%	6%	67	-0.5
✕Chris Wallace 2013 · AAA	25	45→41	47→55	46→45	38	224/278/364	139	303	15	5	30%	5%	80	-0.1	219/267/325	106	322	10	5	33%	6%	67	-1.1	233/269/323	90	359	8	0	36%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Andrew Susac 2015 · MLB	25	43→38	49→50	46→30	47	219/294/363	144	283	17	3	28%	9%	86	+0.3	212/279/352	140	284	16	3	30%	8%	78	-0.3	186/254/321	135	251	16	0	31%	8%	61	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps