Dom Keegan — OGILVIE

Dom KeeganC Durham Bulls

Age 25 R/R 5'11" / 210 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION234 act + 156 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .271 / .300

PA156

HR3

K%38

BB%8

BABIP308

ISO107

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-2	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	46	42	11	3	0	2	3	14	1	1	0	262	326	476	802	214	346	30	7	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	46	40	13	4	0	2	5	10	1	1	0	325	413	575	988	250	393	22	11	432	188	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	3 teams	—	514	456	100	18	4	11	40	152	8	2	1	219	294	349	642	129	294	30	8	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	3 teams	—	514	426	125	24	4	16	69	104	8	2	1	293	401	481	882	188	345	20	13	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	442	393	98	21	2	9	32	116	7	0	0	249	317	382	699	132	320	26	7	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	442	375	107	23	3	9	50	90	7	0	0	285	380	435	814	149	343	20	11	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	2 teams	—	329	301	64	16	2	7	21	107	3	0	1	213	271	349	620	136	298	33	6	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	2 teams	—	329	290	71	18	2	12	32	97	3	0	1	245	326	445	771	200	319	29	10	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AAA	TB	—	234	206	36	1	2	5	23	103	5	6	0	175	274	272	545	97	316	44	10	245	46	-14	+1	+0	+4	+7	-0.2
YTD	25	AAA	TB	—	234	195	40	1	2	6	34	85	5	6	0	205	338	323	661	118	327	36	15	310	95	-1	+1	+0	+4	+7	1.1
ROS	25	AAA	TB	10%	156	140	27	4	1	3	13	60	2	2	0	193	271	300	571	107	311	38	8	268	63	-7	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.1
ROS	25	MLB	TB	10%	16	15	2	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	133	188	133	321		316	38	6	258	55	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	AAA	TB	—	250	221	38	1	2	5	24	109	5	6	0	172	268	262	530	90	308	44	10	246	46	-15	+1	-0	+4	+7	-0.2
TOT	25	AAA	TB	—	390	346	63	5	3	8	36	163	7	8	0	182	272	283	556	101	312	42	9	254	53	-21	+2	-0	+7	+11	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	TB	42%	363	325	66	11	2	9	30	134	5	4	0	203	281	332	613	129	310	37	8	279	72	-11	+1	-0	+6	+10	0.6
2028	27	MLB	TB	55%	386	344	72	12	2	10	33	139	6	4	0	209	290	343	633	134	309	36	9	283	75	-11	+1	-0	+7	+11	0.7
2029	28	MLB	TB	61%	400	357	73	12	2	10	34	142	6	4	0	204	285	333	618	129	307	36	8	284	75	-11	+1	-1	+7	+11	0.7
2030	29	MLB	TB	62%	400	356	73	12	2	10	35	141	6	4	0	205	287	334	621	129	306	35	9	283	75	-11	+1	-2	+7	+11	0.6
2031	30	MLB	TB	63%	398	355	73	12	2	10	35	142	5	4	0	206	286	335	621	130	304	36	9	280	73	-12	+1	-2	+7	+11	0.5
2032	31	MLB	TB	64%	374	334	68	11	2	9	32	134	5	3	0	204	283	329	612	126	302	36	9	276	69	-13	+1	-3	+7	+11	0.2
2033	32	MLB	TB	64%	348	310	62	10	2	8	30	126	5	2	0	200	281	323	604	123	298	36	9	271	65	-14	+0	-4	+6	+10	-0.1
2027	26	MLB	TB	42%	154	138	28	4	1	4	13	57	2	2	0	203	281	333	614	130	314	37	8	270	64	-6	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.1
2028	27	MLB	TB	55%	211	188	38	6	1	5	18	76	3	2	0	202	282	324	607	122	313	36	9	273	67	-8	+0	-0	+4	+6	0.2
2029	28	MLB	TB	61%	244	218	45	7	1	6	21	87	3	3	0	206	285	330	615	124	311	36	9	274	68	-9	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.3
2030	29	MLB	TB	62%	249	222	45	7	1	6	22	88	3	3	0	203	283	324	608	122	310	35	9	273	67	-9	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.2
2031	30	MLB	TB	63%	251	224	45	7	1	6	22	89	3	2	0	201	281	321	603	121	308	35	9	271	65	-10	+0	-2	+4	+7	0.1
2032	31	MLB	TB	64%	238	212	44	7	1	6	21	85	3	2	0	208	288	335	623	127	305	36	9	267	62	-10	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.1
2033	32	MLB	TB	64%	222	198	39	6	1	5	19	81	3	1	0	197	277	313	590	116	302	36	9	262	58	-10	+0	-2	+4	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1585	1415	286	44	7	38	137	569	20	15	0	202	282	324	605	122	304	36	9	270	65	-63	+3	-8	+28	+45	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	118	18	3	16	56	233	8	6	0	203	282	328	610	124	305	36	9	270	65	-26	+1	-3	+12	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	4156	3713	787	142	23	98	338	1407	59	30	2	212	288	342	630	130	307	34	8	283	75	-119	+5	-13	+74	+118	6.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	123	22	4	15	53	220	9	5	0	212	288	341	629	129	307	34	8	283	75	-19	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	26	23	6	0	0	2	2	6	1	0	0	261	346	522	868	261	267	23	8	381	150	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	21	ROK	FCL Rays	—	20	17	7	4	0	0	3	4	0	1	0	412	500	647	1.147	235	538	20	15	497	239	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2023	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	207	173	44	11	0	8	28	42	4	0	1	254	371	457	827	202	288	20	14	367	139	+9	-0	—	—	+6	1.5
2023	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	241	200	63	9	4	5	31	48	3	2	0	315	415	475	890	160	377	20	13	386	153	+15	+0	—	—	+7	2.2
2023	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	66	53	18	4	0	3	10	14	1	0	0	340	446	585	1.031	245	405	21	15	440	195	+7	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2024	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	442	375	107	23	3	9	50	90	7	0	0	285	380	435	814	149	343	20	11	358	132	+16	+0	—	—	+13	2.9
2025	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	297	266	64	16	2	10	24	91	3	0	0	241	311	429	739	188	320	31	8	324	106	+2	+0	—	—	+8	1.1
2025	24	ROK	FCL Rays	—	32	24	7	2	0	2	8	6	0	0	1	292	469	625	1.094	333	312	19	25	470	217	+4	-0	—	—	+1	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,601	40	15	205	282	335	+29	+0	2.3	2.3
	/162	664	17	6	205	282	335	+11.9	+0.0	0.9	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dom Keegan (OGILVIE)	25	45	55	40	47	182/272/283	101	312	8	8	42%	9%	53	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos M. Rodriguez 2007 · AAA	25	43→42	45→55	41→40	40	214/272/329	115	303	14	6	33%	7%	66	-0.6	232/290/339	107	329	12	5	31%	7%	76	+0.0	217/279/402	185	301	27	2	36%	7%	85	+0.3
✕Wade Wass 2017 · AA	25	43	46→50	45	41	206/285/339	133	320	14	5	37%	8%	75	-0.0	210/288/366	156	329	19	11	39%	7%	83	+0.6	205/293/412	207	295	31	18	40%	7%	94	+0.5
✕Pedro Pagés 2023 · AAA	24	40→44	44→50	44→40	40	201/262/314	114	296	12	4	35%	7%	58	-1.2	222/281/354	132	292	15	4	28%	7%	76	+0.1	225/284/360	135	285	17	2	26%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Zach Green 2019 · AAA	25	42→41	49→55	40	35	208/266/359	151	319	17	3	39%	5%	72	-0.2	206/278/386	180	331	22	4	42%	8%	84	+0.6	183/255/365	182	286	23	1	42%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Anthony Recker 2009 · AA	25	46→48	47→55	42→45	39	223/278/364	140	327	14	3	35%	6%	78	+0.2	229/286/381	152	319	17	4	32%	7%	85	+0.7	230/294/394	164	302	19	4	29%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Logan Taylor 2019 · AA	25	46→50	46→50	43→40	37	220/274/354	135	333	14	5	37%	6%	73	-0.1	215/260/340	125	327	14	6	37%	5%	63	-0.8	197/238/315	118	297	15	4	38%	4%	46	-1.4
✕Tyler Marlette 2018 · AA	25	42	47→50	43→45	39	217/261/350	133	284	15	4	29%	5%	66	-0.6	221/273/351	130	297	15	6	30%	6%	72	-0.2	216/270/343	127	285	17	5	30%	6%	64	-0.6
✕Carson Blair 2015 · AA	25	43	47→50	46→30	41	203/277/346	143	328	13	4	40%	9%	73	-0.1	200/269/325	125	337	13	4	41%	8%	64	-0.8	180/250/295	115	303	14	1	42%	7%	45	-0.8
✕Cameron Rupp 2014 · AAA	25	44→48	45→60	44→30	39	220/271/341	121	305	13	3	32%	6%	69	-0.4	214/271/351	137	287	16	3	30%	7%	72	-0.2	231/297/406	175	295	22	1	29%	8%	91	+0.7
✕Kevin Richardson 2006 · AA	25	47	44→50	43→40	39	220/295/334	113	329	12	6	34%	7%	78	+0.2	216/278/362	146	300	19	4	33%	6%	78	+0.2	204/264/351	148	274	21	2	33%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Lee Mitchell 2008 · AA	26	45→48	48→50	40→45	41	217/288/360	143	325	15	3	36%	8%	82	+0.5	211/286/344	133	311	12	5	33%	9%	76	+0.1	203/277/334	131	295	11	4	33%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Seby Zavala 2019 · AAA	25	40	49→50	39→40	37	208/257/349	141	286	18	2	33%	5%	65	-0.7	183/237/322	139	285	18	4	41%	6%	50	-1.7	188/267/305	117	296	13	1	38%	8%	56	-0.5
●Luke Montz 2008 · AA	25	38→46	48→55	43→40	43	200/265/343	143	263	16	4	30%	7%	67	-0.5	202/265/334	132	256	16	3	27%	8%	65	-0.7	211/285/427	216	246	30	4	28%	8%	97	+0.9
✕Meibrys Viloria 2022 · MLB	25	45→47	42→45	43→40	44	211/291/318	107	319	10	6	34%	9%	72	-0.2	223/312/350	127	327	13	7	32%	11%	89	+1.0	223/334/350	127	322	13	3	31%	13%	95	+0.7
✕Luke Berryhill 2023 · AA	25	44→40	46→45	45	40	204/290/329	125	339	14	7	40%	8%	75	-0.0	202/284/326	124	341	14	9	41%	9%	71	-0.3	181/272/303	121	309	14	10	42%	10%	56	-0.6
✕Ricardo Genovés 2023 · AAA	24	40→43	46→45	43→30	40	203/265/330	127	289	15	2	34%	7%	63	-0.8	196/265/319	123	289	13	4	35%	7%	61	-1.0	182/262/305	123	264	13	1	34%	8%	54	-0.6
✕Chris Wallace 2013 · AAA	25	44→41	48→60	46→45	38	221/275/362	141	303	15	5	32%	5%	76	+0.1	217/265/330	113	322	11	5	34%	6%	63	-0.9	231/267/335	104	361	11	0	38%	5%	63	-0.3
✕Drew Ward 2019 · AAA	24	43→45	47→55	40→30	43	213/284/345	132	307	15	2	34%	8%	76	+0.0	212/270/366	154	346	19	4	41%	7%	76	+0.0	196/252/358	163	332	22	2	46%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Coco Montes 2022 · AA	25	39→43	46→50	40→50	36	200/242/333	132	273	13	5	31%	4%	54	-1.4	211/280/347	136	305	14	10	33%	8%	74	-0.1	211/287/344	133	305	14	11	33%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Aramis Garcia 2018 · AA	25	42	48→55	46→45	39	216/262/354	138	282	16	3	29%	5%	69	-0.4	214/262/364	150	310	19	2	36%	5%	71	-0.3	176/253/325	149	241	21	5	36%	7%	57	-0.5