Dom Keegan

C Durham Bulls
Age 26 R/R 5'11" / 210 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
ETA2029MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202423AATB442.285/.380/.4359095—.253/.322/.380
202524AAA/ROKTB329.245/.326/.44512066—.203/.265/.338
202625AAA/AA2 orgs381.193/.331/.32912649—.162/.268/.261
2027PROJ10% MLB26MLBTB16.190/.272/.3010063-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB27MLBTB70.192/.274/.3031164-0.0
2029PROJ42% MLB28MLBTB106.193/.274/.3042164-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
BB%83
Speed78
Max EV74
Chase%73
Z-Con%15
Whiff%14
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%
CompsTrevor Schwecke (age 25) · Ricardo Genovés (age 25) · Seby Zavala (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†63
AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .272 / .301
PA16
HR0
K%38
BB%6
BABIP299
ISO108
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.7 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +2.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-1.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202221 ACharleston RiverDogs — 2623 6002 261 00 261346522868 261267 238 381 86 — — — — — —
202221 ROKFCL Rays — 2017 7400 340 10 4125006471.147 235538 2015 497 118 — — — — — —
202322 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods — 207173 441108 28424 01 254371457827 202288 2014 367 70 — — — — — —
202322 ACharleston RiverDogs — 241200 63945 31483 20 315415475890 160377 2013 386 97 — — — — — —
202322 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 6653 18403 10141 00 3404465851.031 245405 2115 440 184 — — — — — —
202423 AAMontgomery Biscuits — 442375 1072339 50907 00 285380435814 149343 2011 358 95 — — — — — —
202524 AAADurham Bulls — 297266 6416210 24913 00 241311429739 188320 318 324 61 — — — — — —
202524 ROKFCL Rays — 3224 7202 860 01 2924696251.094 333312 1925 470 114 — — — — — —
202625 AAADurham Bulls — 214178 34016 31795 60 191327303630 112301 3714 298 43 — — — — — —
202625 AAChesapeake Baysox — 167138 27316 25414 01 196335362698 167231 2515 322 56 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202221 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 2624 5002 181 00 208269458728 250248 314 296 86 — — — — — —
202221 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 2018 5300 260 10 278350444794 167412 3010 342 118 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 207185 37807 16584 01 200278357635 157239 288 272 70 — — — — — —
202322 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 241211 54844 20663 20 256329389718 133322 278 311 97 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 442392 992228 331107 00 253322380702 128310 257 308 95 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 297273 561425 171033 00 205259326585 121296 356 258 61 — — — — — —
202524 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 3227 5102 590 01 185312444757 259223 2816 337 114 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 214187 30014 22955 60 160266235502 75289 4410 232 43 — — — — — —
202625 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 167146 24215 17504 01 164269295564 130209 3010 251 56 — — — — — —
202221 A MLE2 teams — 4642 11302 3141 10 262326476802 214346 307 316 100 — — — — — —
202221 A RAW2 teams — 4640 13402 5101 10 325413575988 250393 2211 432 100 — — — — — —
202322 A MLE3 teams — 514454 10318412 421438 21 227304363667 137294 288 293 84 — — — — — —
202322 A RAW3 teams — 514426 12524416 691048 21 293401481882 188345 2013 385 84 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 442392 992228 331107 00 253322380702 128320 257 308 95 — — — — — —
202423 AA RAWMontgomery Biscuits — 442375 1072339 50907 00 285380435814 149343 2011 358 95 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE2 teams — 329301 611527 211123 01 203262336597 133290 346 266 66 — — — — — —
202524 AAA RAW2 teams — 329290 7118212 32973 01 245326445771 200319 2910 338 66 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLE2 teams — 381333 53229 391459 61 159265258523 99246 3810 240 49 — — — — — —
202625 AAA RAW2 teams — 381316 613212 561209 61 193331329660 136266 3115 309 49 — — — — — —
202221 A MLE2 teams — 4642 11302 3141 10 262326476802 214319 307 316 100 — — — — — —
202322 A MLE3 teams — 514459 10318412 421438 21 224304359663 135284 288 293 84 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 442399 992228 331107 00 248322373695 125310 257 308 95 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE2 teams — 329302 611527 211123 01 202262334596 132289 346 266 66 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLE2 teams — 381330 53229 391459 61 161265261526 100254 3810 240 49 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 442399 992228 331107 00 248322373695 125310 257 308 95 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE2 teams — 329302 611527 211123 01 202262334596 132289 346 266 66 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLE2 teams — 381330 53229 391459 61 161265261526 100254 3810 240 49 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLETB 10% 380339 641128 321456 31 188271301572 113295 388 261 63 -17 +0 -2 +7 +8 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXTB 10% 1615 2000 160 00 190272301573 111299 386 262 63 -1 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLETB 31% 225201 38615 19843 20 190272304576 114294 378 263 64 -10 +0 -1 +4 +5 -0.1
202928 MLB MLETB 42% 253225 42715 22934 10 191273304577 113293 379 263 64 -11 +0 -2 +5 +5 -0.2
203029 MLB MLETB 46% 263235 45815 22964 10 191272303575 112291 378 263 64 -11 +0 -3 +5 +6 -0.3
202827 MLB CTXTB 31% 7063 11201 6261 10 192274303577 112298 379 264 64 -3 +0 -0 +1 +2 -0.0
202928 MLB CTXTB 42% 10694 19312 9392 10 193274304578 111296 378 264 64 -4 +0 -1 +2 +2 -0.1
203029 MLB CTXTB 46% 121108 20312 10442 00 193273303576 110294 368 263 64 -5 +0 -1 +2 +3 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 297265 50825 251095 20 189271291562 102294 378 264 72 -13 +0 -2 +5 +6 -0.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650580 11018411 5523911 40 190272291564 102296 378 264 72 -28 +1 -5 +12 +14 -0.6
Career— MLE — 26082322 478851456 21485641 143 206284327611 121293 338 274 72 -38 +1 -6 +16 +19 -0.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650579 11921314 5321310 31 206283325608 119292 338 274 72 -28 +1 -4 +12 +14 -0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 214 PAwOBA .291 → .232 (−59)K% 36.9% → 44.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA36.92%÷1.000×1.200——44.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.49%÷1.000×0.690—×1.01810.18%
HBP% /PA2.34%—×0.940—×1.0182.24%
Singles /BIP27.27%÷1.000×0.930×1.030×1.01826.58%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.830×1.030×1.0180.00%
Triples /BIP1.01%÷1.000×0.970×1.030×1.0181.03%
Home runs /BIP6.06%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0184.32%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .291 → .232; ISO .112 → .078; BABIP .301 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 167 PAwOBA .314 → .251 (−63)K% 24.6% → 30.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.55%÷1.000×1.220——29.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.97%÷1.000×0.700—×0.98810.35%
HBP% /PA2.40%—×0.850—×0.9882.01%
Singles /BIP17.53%÷1.000×0.970×0.977×0.98816.40%
Doubles /BIP3.09%÷1.000×0.860×0.977×0.9882.57%
Triples /BIP1.03%÷1.000×0.950×0.977×0.9880.95%
Home runs /BIP6.19%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9884.77%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .314 → .251; ISO .167 → .131; BABIP .231 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 297 PAwOBA .319 → .258 (−61)K% 30.6% → 34.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.64%÷1.057×1.200——34.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.08%÷1.030×0.690—×1.0335.59%
HBP% /PA1.01%—×0.940—×1.0330.98%
Singles /BIP20.57%÷0.956×0.930×0.970×1.03320.07%
Doubles /BIP9.14%÷0.940×0.830×0.970×1.0338.09%
Triples /BIP1.14%÷0.900×0.970×0.970×1.0331.23%
Home runs /BIP5.71%÷1.380×0.700—×1.0332.99%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 91, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .319 → .258; ISO .188 → .128; BABIP .320 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Rays · 32 PAwOBA .458 → .337 (−121)K% 18.8% → 27.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.75%÷0.985×1.440——27.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA25.00%÷0.991×0.620—×0.94514.79%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9450.00%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷1.018×0.820—×0.94512.68%
Doubles /BIP11.11%÷1.026×0.720—×0.9457.37%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.720—×0.9450.00%
Home runs /BIP11.11%÷0.809×0.780—×0.94510.12%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .458 → .337; ISO .333 → .291; BABIP .312 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 442 PAwOBA .356 → .308 (−48)K% 20.4% → 24.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.36%÷0.999×1.220——24.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.09%÷1.022×0.680—×1.0127.46%
HBP% /PA1.58%—×0.840—×1.0121.35%
Singles /BIP25.26%÷1.008×0.920×0.981×1.01222.88%
Doubles /BIP8.07%÷0.972×0.910×0.981×1.0127.50%
Triples /BIP1.05%÷1.115×0.880×0.981×1.0120.82%
Home runs /BIP3.16%÷0.958×0.800—×1.0122.67%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 94, 3B 123, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .356 → .308; ISO .149 → .134; BABIP .343 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 241 PAwOBA .387 → .311 (−77)K% 19.9% → 27.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.92%÷0.985×1.360——27.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.86%÷1.035×0.690—×0.9908.49%
HBP% /PA1.24%—×0.780—×0.9900.96%
Singles /BIP29.61%÷1.071×0.920×1.006×0.99025.33%
Doubles /BIP5.92%÷0.964×0.830×1.006×0.9905.08%
Triples /BIP2.63%÷0.938×0.910×1.006×0.9902.54%
Home runs /BIP3.29%÷1.075×0.800—×0.9902.42%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 114, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .387 → .311; ISO .160 → .132; BABIP .377 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 207 PAwOBA .361 → .272 (−89)K% 20.3% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.29%÷0.950×1.310——27.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.53%÷1.060×0.600—×0.9987.64%
HBP% /PA1.93%—×0.770—×0.9981.48%
Singles /BIP19.08%÷1.008×0.870×1.016×0.99816.70%
Doubles /BIP8.40%÷1.047×0.780×1.016×0.9986.34%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.103×0.850×1.016×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP6.11%÷1.066×0.880—×0.9985.03%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 121, K 90, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .361 → .272; ISO .202 → .161; BABIP .288 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ACharleston RiverDogs · 26 PAwOBA .370 → .296 (−75)K% 23.1% → 31.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.08%÷0.985×1.360——31.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.69%÷0.983×0.690——5.40%
HBP% /PA3.85%—×0.780——3.00%
Singles /BIP23.53%÷0.970×0.920——22.31%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.066×0.830——0.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.053×0.910——0.00%
Home runs /BIP11.76%÷0.943×0.800——9.98%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 94, 2B 113, 3B 111, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .370 → .296; ISO .261 → .202; BABIP .267 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .