AJ Lewis — OGILVIE

AJ LewisC Hartford Yard Goats

Age 28 R/R 5'9" / 195 lbs AA HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .290 / .319

PA15

HR0

K%27

BB%8

ISO109

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	A+	Spokane Indians	—	74	56	10	2	0	1	12	20	3	2	2	179	352	268	620	89	250	27	16	291	83	-1	-0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2021	23	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	57	46	13	3	0	1	5	12	6	0	2	283	421	413	834	130	364	21	9	386	147	+3	-1	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	24	A+	Spokane Indians	—	37	33	5	2	0	0	4	13	0	0	1	152	243	212	455	61	250	35	11	218	34	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	24	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	153	115	32	8	0	5	31	32	5	0	2	278	450	478	929	200	338	21	20	413	166	+12	-1	—	—	+3	1.5
2023	25	A+	Spokane Indians	—	276	217	44	12	1	6	37	73	20	3	3	203	369	350	719	147	273	26	13	336	113	+4	-1	—	—	+6	1.0
2024	26	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	44	35	11	6	0	0	7	5	1	1	0	314	442	486	928	171	355	11	16	406	161	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	26	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	86	76	15	3	0	0	8	27	2	1	1	197	291	237	528	39	306	31	9	253	57	-4	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	74	60	10	2	0	1	8	28	3	2	2	167	296	250	546	83	228	38	11	226	39	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2021	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	57	48	11	2	0	1	3	17	6	0	2	229	351	333	684	104	328	30	5	296	86	-1	-1	—	—	+1	-0.0
2022	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	37	35	3	1	0	0	2	19	0	0	1	86	135	114	249	29	203	51	5	135	-22	-5	-0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2022	24	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	153	124	30	7	0	5	22	45	5	0	2	242	377	419	797	177	305	29	14	341	117	+3	-1	—	—	+3	0.6
2023	25	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	276	232	33	8	1	4	22	104	20	3	3	142	274	237	511	95	224	38	8	234	45	-18	-1	—	—	+6	-1.3
2024	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	44	37	10	5	0	0	5	7	1	1	0	270	372	405	777	135	306	16	11	342	118	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	26	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	86	79	12	2	0	0	5	33	2	1	1	152	221	177	398	25	263	38	6	188	13	-9	-0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2021	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	131	108	20	4	0	1	11	45	9	2	4	185	312	250	562	65	302	34	8	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	131	102	23	5	0	2	17	32	9	2	4	225	383	333	716	108	304	24	13	332	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	190	159	33	8	0	5	24	63	5	0	3	208	330	352	682	145	301	33	13	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A RAW	2 teams	—	190	148	37	10	0	5	35	45	5	0	3	250	410	419	828	169	320	24	18	375	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	276	232	33	8	1	4	22	104	20	3	3	142	274	237	511	95	232	38	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	—	276	217	44	12	1	6	37	73	20	3	3	203	369	350	719	147	273	26	13	336	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	130	116	22	7	0	0	10	40	3	2	1	190	271	250	521	60	286	31	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	130	111	26	9	0	0	15	32	3	2	1	234	341	315	656	81	325	25	12	305	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	131	110	20	4	0	1	11	45	9	2	4	182	312	245	558	64	272	34	8	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	190	159	33	8	0	5	24	63	5	0	3	208	330	352	682	145	285	33	13	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	276	232	33	8	1	4	22	104	20	3	3	142	274	237	511	95	224	38	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	130	116	22	7	0	0	10	40	3	2	1	190	271	250	521	60	278	31	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	276	232	33	8	1	4	22	104	20	3	3	142	274	237	511	95	224	38	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	130	116	22	7	0	0	10	40	3	2	1	190	271	250	521	60	278	31	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	28	MLB MLE	COL	2%	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	214	267	286	552	71	284	27	7	280	75	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	COL	28%	243	217	46	10	1	4	19	65	5	4	1	212	290	323	613	111	284	27	8	282	77	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	COL	43%	290	259	55	12	1	5	23	77	6	4	1	212	292	324	616	112	283	27	8	283	77	-8	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	COL	52%	278	249	53	11	1	5	22	74	5	3	1	213	290	325	615	112	281	27	8	281	76	-8	+0	-3	+5	+6	0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	COL	28%	68	62	13	3	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	210	279	306	586	97	300	26	7	282	77	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	COL	43%	125	112	26	6	1	2	10	33	2	2	1	232	306	357	664	125	299	26	8	283	77	-3	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	COL	52%	145	129	29	6	1	3	12	39	3	2	1	225	306	357	662	132	297	27	8	282	76	-4	+0	-1	+3	+3	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	338	303	68	15	2	6	27	90	6	5	2	224	301	347	647	122	297	27	8	282	69	-9	+0	-3	+6	+7	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	132	29	4	12	52	173	12	10	4	226	303	352	655	125	299	27	8	282	69	-18	+0	-5	+12	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	1553	1354	265	61	4	24	132	472	53	18	14	196	292	300	592	104	278	30	8	270	69	-23	+1	-6	+15	+18	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	567	112	26	2	10	55	198	22	8	6	198	293	303	597	106	282	30	8	270	69	-18	+1	-5	+12	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.5	341	6	5	215	291	328	+6	+4	0.6	0.6
/162	664	11	9	+11.9	+7.8	1.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
AJ Lewis (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	211/290/319	108	284	3	3	27%	8%	75	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	39	45	48→40	49	198/286/319	122	254	12	5	26%	9%	74	-0.5	216/298/331	115	289	12	7	27%	9%	80	-0.1	197/296/255	58	267	7	0	26%	12%	61	-0.3
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→39	44→50	46→45	50	188/283/306	118	262	12	9	31%	11%	70	-0.8	187/282/307	120	260	13	10	31%	11%	70	-0.9	168/270/286	118	229	14	8	31%	11%	59	-1.0
✕Brad Cresse 2006 · AAA	28	41	43→45	47→30	44	203/271/323	120	265	10	6	26%	7%	68	-1.0	218/281/348	130	303	14	6	31%	7%	78	-0.3	206/269/329	123	290	16	0	33%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Danny Mendick 2022 · MLB	28	46→48	43→45	43→50	47	227/288/332	105	279	11	8	22%	7%	76	-0.4	235/295/355	120	289	13	12	22%	7%	84	+0.2	228/286/354	126	275	14	15	22%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Alex De Goti 2023 · AAA	28	44→48	41→45	51→50	48	210/283/311	101	276	8	8	26%	9%	70	-0.8	198/276/278	80	272	6	10	27%	9%	60	-1.6	176/261/230	54	248	4	10	28%	9%	42	-1.3
✕Justin Knoedler 2008 · AAA	28	45	42→45	50→45	40	217/267/333	116	298	9	10	29%	6%	69	-0.9	195/242/330	135	260	14	8	30%	5%	59	-1.6	133/185/279	146	158	19	4	31%	4%	26	-1.6
✕Dan Butler 2015 · MLB	28	43→39	43→45	44→40	44	211/270/320	110	265	10	3	24%	6%	67	-1.1	218/281/310	92	285	6	3	24%	7%	69	-0.9	212/282/298	86	268	7	0	22%	8%	64	-0.5
✕Chris Herrmann 2016 · MLB	28	44→49	42→50	51→50	44	215/273/326	110	279	9	8	25%	7%	69	-0.9	221/298/372	151	284	17	10	27%	10%	90	+0.6	214/305/376	161	274	20	8	28%	11%	91	+0.3
✕Christian Lopes 2021 · AAA	28	45→51	44→45	47→50	49	222/297/340	118	275	11	13	23%	8%	82	+0.0	213/291/335	122	306	12	11	32%	8%	79	-0.2	194/280/309	115	286	11	9	33%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Xavier Fernández 2023 · AAA	28	47	42→45	46→40	44	231/275/327	96	277	10	5	21%	6%	70	-0.9	240/295/377	137	287	14	5	21%	7%	89	+0.5	246/305/407	160	287	16	0	20%	7%	98	+0.8
✕Craig Stansberry 2010 · MLB	28	46→47	42→50	45→50	49	222/286/331	109	269	9	10	21%	8%	75	-0.5	222/284/332	110	283	10	12	24%	7%	75	-0.5	215/280/320	104	277	10	12	25%	7%	69	-0.5
✕Dusty Brown 2011 · AAA	29	43	42→45	47→30	44	210/271/314	104	281	10	3	28%	7%	66	-1.1	213/283/348	135	271	14	5	25%	8%	79	-0.2	202/281/348	146	246	15	1	24%	9%	78	-0.1
✕Mike Rivera 2005 · MLB	28	45	45→55	49→45	47	227/285/353	126	275	13	8	22%	7%	80	-0.2	231/274/413	182	254	25	7	21%	4%	91	+0.6	213/254/387	173	231	25	6	21%	4%	74	-0.3
✕Tony Sanchez 2016 · MLB	28	42→49	44→50	43→40	45	210/279/328	117	270	11	5	26%	7%	72	-0.7	216/280/317	101	283	9	4	26%	7%	70	-0.8	231/287/319	89	313	8	1	27%	6%	70	-0.4
✕David Matranga 2006 · AAA	29	44	43→45	48→50	50	214/291/334	120	268	10	13	23%	9%	78	-0.3	204/272/326	122	268	14	11	28%	7%	70	-0.9	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Austin Wynns 2019 · MLB	28	48→52	44→45	47→40	45	235/287/343	108	286	12	3	22%	6%	78	-0.3	223/278/320	97	273	11	4	22%	6%	70	-0.9	242/307/339	96	312	9	2	24%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA	27	42	44→45	43→40	43	210/274/328	118	283	11	5	29%	7%	70	-0.8	219/287/362	143	261	15	6	21%	8%	83	+0.1	203/270/374	171	212	20	2	16%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Grayson Greiner 2021 · MLB	28	40	47→45	46→30	43	206/271/335	129	277	15	4	31%	8%	71	-0.8	196/261/305	109	342	12	5	43%	7%	61	-1.5	178/245/263	85	331	9	1	46%	8%	42	-0.9
✕Tommy Field 2015 · MLB	28	48→51	44→45	50→45	46	232/293/352	120	289	10	8	23%	7%	83	+0.1	205/270/324	119	256	12	7	24%	7%	68	-1.0	185/250/294	109	230	11	5	24%	6%	52	-1.6
✕Beamer Weems 2015 · AAA	28	44→47	44→45	47→40	42	218/273/330	113	288	11	9	28%	6%	70	-0.8	208/262/307	99	255	8	7	21%	6%	61	-1.5	181/231/254	73	220	3	0	19%	6%	33	-1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps