AJ LewisC Hartford Yard Goats
Age 28 R/R 5'9" / 195 lbs AA H +10%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.2 · 2026
wRC+†66
AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .282 / .306
PA170
HR3
K%31
BB%8
MLB%2%
BAT: -6.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +3.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +4.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Arb-1$0.8M
2030Arb-2$0.9M
2031Arb-3$0.9M
2032Ext / FA-deal$0.2M
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $-3M $-6M -$3M
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202123 A+2 teams 131108 20401 11459 24 .185.312.250.562 .065.302 348 .257 55 -7 -1 +0 +2 +4 -0.2
202224 A2 teams 190159 33805 24635 03 .208.330.352.682 .145.301 3313 .301 88 -3 -1 +0 +3 +5 0.5
202325 A+Spokane Indians 276232 34914 2210420 33 .147.277.246.523 .099.240 388 .235 38 -19 -1 +0 +5 +8 -0.7
202426 AA2 teams 130116 22700 10423 21 .190.271.250.521 .060.293 328 .239 41 -9 +0 +0 +2 +4 -0.3
▸ 2026 Season
202628 MLBCOL 170151 31713 13524 31 .205.286.325.610 .119.285 318 .272 66 -7 +0 +0 +3 +5 0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
202729 MLB 9%COL 243217 451014 19735 41 .207.286.318.604 .111.285 308 .275 68 -9 +0 -1 +4 +7 0.2
202830 MLB 19%COL 290259 521115 23876 41 .201.281.309.590 .108.284 308 .275 69 -10 +0 -2 +5 +8 0.2
202931 MLB 29%COL 278248 511115 22836 21 .206.286.319.605 .113.283 308 .274 68 -10 +0 -3 +5 +8 -0.0
203032 MLB 40%COL 258230 461014 21785 10 .200.281.304.586 .104.282 308 .271 65 -10 +0 -4 +5 +7 -0.2
203133 MLB 54%COL 228203 40913 18705 00 .197.279.296.574 .099.281 318 .265 61 -10 +0 -4 +4 +6 -0.4
203234 MLB 71%COL 186165 33713 15594 00 .200.283.309.592 .109.279 328 .259 56 -9 +0 -5 +3 +5 -0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career 23802088 40793837 19875672 2115 .195.287.300.587 .105.283 328 .266 62 -102 -2 -19 +42 +67 -1.3
/ 162G 650570 11025210 5420620 64 .193.286.296.582 .104.280 328 .266 62 -28 -0 -5 +12 +18 -0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202123 A+Spokane Indians 7456 10201 12203 22 .179.352.268.620 .089.250 2716 .291 81 -2 -0 +2 0.0
202123 AFresno Grizzlies 5746 13301 5126 02 .283.421.413.834 .130.364 219 .386 153 +3 -1 +2 0.4
202224 A+Spokane Indians 3733 5200 4130 01 .152.243.212.455 .061.250 3511 .218 25 -3 -0 +1 -0.3
202224 AFresno Grizzlies 153115 32805 31325 02 .278.450.478.929 .200.338 2120 .413 174 +13 -1 +4 1.7
202325 A+Spokane Indians 276217 441216 377320 33 .203.369.350.719 .147.273 2613 .336 115 +5 -1 +8 1.2
202426 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes 4435 11600 751 10 .314.442.486.928 .171.355 1116 .406 169 +3 +0 +1 0.5
202426 AAHartford Yard Goats 8676 15300 8272 11 .197.291.237.528 .039.306 319 .253 52 -5 -0 +2 -0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
AJ Lewis (OGILVIE) 28 .200/.282/.306 .106.285 33 31% 8% 66 -0.2
Zack Short
2023 · MLB
28 37→39 46→50 46→45 50 .191/.285/.319 .128.261 149 31% 11% 70 -0.3 .189/.283/.313 .124.261 1410 31% 11% 68 -0.5 .168/.270/.287.119.22814831%11%54-0.9
Brad Cresse
2006 · AAA
28 41 44→50 48→30 43 .204/.269/.324 .120.267 107 27% 7% 64 -0.8 .215/.275/.352 .137.301 156 32% 7% 73 -0.1 .205/.267/.343.138.29119035%7%69-0.2
Stevie Berman
2023 · AAA
28 39 46→50 48→40 48 .200/.287/.330 .129.255 145 26% 9% 73 -0.1 .215/.296/.335 .120.285 137 27% 9% 79 +0.3 .199/.298/.266.067.2679027%12%60-0.2
Dominic Miroglio
2022 · AA
27 41 44→45 44→40 43 .205/.269/.321 .117.279 115 30% 7% 63 -0.9 .216/.284/.361 .145.260 155 23% 8% 80 +0.4 .203/.270/.374.171.21220216%7%72-0.1
Dan Butler
2015 · MLB
28 43→39 45 44→40 45 .213/.274/.334 .121.264 123 24% 6% 69 -0.4 .217/.279/.315 .098.282 73 24% 7% 65 -0.7 .214/.284/.310.095.2699022%8%63-0.3
Grayson Greiner
2021 · MLB
28 40 46→45 45→30 44 .206/.272/.331 .125.276 154 30% 8% 66 -0.6 .196/.260/.306 .110.334 125 42% 7% 55 -1.4 .177/.244/.263.086.3299146%8%34-0.9
Angelo Castellano
2023 · AAA
28 38→42 41→45 47→50 43 .193/.254/.284 .092.249 1012 26% 6% 46 -2.0 .221/.284/.356 .135.267 1614 23% 8% 78 +0.2 .228/.293/.382.154.263201522%8%85+0.3
Alex De Goti
2023 · AAA
28 43→46 41→45 51→50 47 .206/.279/.307 .101.275 88 27% 8% 63 -0.8 .196/.273/.279 .083.270 610 28% 9% 54 -1.4 .174/.259/.229.054.24741028%9%33-1.3
Joe DeCarlo
2021 · AA
27 40→38 43→50 47→30 40 .197/.265/.308 .111.291 115 34% 7% 58 -1.2 .199/.260/.292 .093.305 96 35% 7% 51 -1.7 .163/.224/.224.061.2498036%7%16-1.3
Ryan Jorgensen
2007 · AAA
28 38 44→45 48→30 43 .197/.260/.308 .111.260 136 29% 7% 56 -1.3 .211/.260/.328 .117.271 135 26% 6% 60 -1.0 .210/.254/.324.114.26612125%5%54-0.6
Chris Rabago
2021 · AAA
28 39 41→40 50→55 43 .192/.252/.291 .099.264 914 30% 7% 47 -1.9 .193/.261/.280 .087.291 811 34% 7% 49 -1.8 .161/.236/.224.063.2536836%7%21-1.1
Brett Hayes
2012 · MLB
28 41 46→45 48→40 42 .211/.258/.339 .128.264 144 26% 6% 62 -0.9 .214/.254/.363 .149.284 186 30% 5% 67 -0.5 .184/.217/.317.133.23517230%3%34-1.1
Brad Davis
2011 · MLB
28 42 47→50 43→45 44 .213/.270/.353 .141.266 154 26% 7% 72 -0.2 .213/.260/.321 .108.282 106 27% 6% 58 -1.2 .197/.240/.283.087.2656427%5%37-1.1
Jeremy Farrell
2015 · AAA
28 42→38 40→45 42→45 38 .202/.265/.299 .098.295 74 33% 6% 56 -1.3 .208/.259/.304 .096.318 76 35% 5% 53 -1.5 .189/.229/.269.080.3024238%2%29-1.1
Drew Jackson
2021 · AAA
28 39→45 45 49→55 41 .197/.268/.316 .118.283 1317 34% 7% 62 -0.9 .210/.295/.327 .117.326 1225 36% 9% 76 +0.0 .199/.294/.308.110.316123237%10%68-0.2
Andrew Susac
2018 · MLB
28 37→39 48→50 47→30 43 .197/.261/.333 .136.264 163 31% 8% 63 -0.9 .206/.283/.350 .144.290 177 33% 9% 76 +0.1 .198/.293/.339.141.28118034%11%76+0.0
Lucas May
2013 · MLB
28 38→42 45→55 44→45 37 .197/.240/.320 .124.267 126 31% 5% 50 -1.8 .199/.235/.300 .101.269 107 29% 4% 42 -2.3 .191/.231/.254.063.2578328%4%26-1.1
Renae Martinez
2021 · AA
27 42→32 43→50 44→40 43 .208/.271/.314 .106.276 103 28% 7% 62 -0.9 .195/.264/.310 .115.308 118 37% 8% 58 -1.2 .139/.221/.264.125.22713643%8%26-0.9
Dustin Garneau
2016 · MLB
28 40→38 47→50 43→45 46 .203/.259/.335 .132.225 166 19% 6% 63 -0.9 .209/.268/.359 .150.248 184 24% 6% 72 -0.2 .184/.263/.355.171.22521029%7%68-0.2
Chris Okey
2023 · AAA
28 43 44→45 47→40 39 .212/.263/.330 .117.305 115 33% 6% 62 -0.9 .215/.261/.319 .104.290 107 28% 5% 58 -1.2 .205/.250/.290.085.2729527%4%42-0.7