AJ Lewis — OGILVIE

AJ LewisC Hartford Yard Goats

Age 28 R/R 5'9" / 195 lbs AA HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .283 / .312

PA170

HR3

K%29

BB%8

ISO107

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	131	108	20	4	0	1	11	46	9	2	4	185	312	250	562	65	306	35	8	251	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	131	102	23	5	0	2	17	32	9	2	4	225	383	333	716	108	304	24	13	332	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A	2 teams	—	190	159	32	8	0	5	24	66	5	0	3	201	324	346	670	145	300	35	13	301	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A	2 teams	—	190	148	37	10	0	5	35	45	5	0	3	250	410	419	828	169	320	24	18	375	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A+	Spokane Indians	—	276	234	33	8	1	4	20	106	20	3	3	141	266	235	501	94	232	38	7	227	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A+	Spokane Indians	—	276	217	44	12	1	6	37	73	20	3	3	203	369	350	719	147	273	26	13	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	2 teams	—	130	116	21	7	0	0	10	43	3	2	1	181	264	241	505	60	284	33	8	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	2 teams	—	130	111	26	9	0	0	15	32	3	2	1	234	341	315	656	81	325	25	12	305	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	COL	—	170	151	32	7	1	3	13	49	4	3	1	212	292	331	623	119	285	29	8	274	68	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	COL	23%	243	217	46	10	1	4	19	69	5	4	1	212	290	323	613	111	285	28	8	277	70	-8	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.2
2028	30	MLB	COL	35%	290	259	55	12	1	5	23	82	6	4	1	212	292	324	616	112	284	28	8	278	71	-10	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.2
2027	29	MLB	COL	23%	55	50	11	3	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	220	291	340	631	120	307	29	7	281	73	-2	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	30	MLB	COL	35%	101	90	20	5	0	2	8	29	2	1	0	222	300	344	644	122	306	29	8	282	74	-3	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	156	140	31	8	0	3	12	45	3	2	0	221	297	343	640	121	301	29	8	282	74	-5	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	128	33	0	12	50	188	12	8	0	220	294	338	632	118	300	29	8	282	74	-19	+2	-4	+12	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	1430	1244	239	56	4	22	120	461	52	18	14	192	290	297	587	105	282	32	8	264	60	-65	-2	-3	+26	+41	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	565	108	25	2	10	55	210	24	8	6	191	291	296	586	104	281	32	8	264	60	-29	-1	-2	+12	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	Spokane Indians	—	74	56	10	2	0	1	12	20	3	2	2	179	352	268	620	89	250	27	16	291	81	-2	-0	—	—	+2	0.0
2021	23	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	57	46	13	3	0	1	5	12	6	0	2	283	421	413	834	130	364	21	9	386	153	+3	-1	—	—	+2	0.4
2022	24	A+	Spokane Indians	—	37	33	5	2	0	0	4	13	0	0	1	152	243	212	455	61	250	35	11	218	25	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	24	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	153	115	32	8	0	5	31	32	5	0	2	278	450	478	929	200	338	21	20	413	174	+13	-1	—	—	+4	1.7
2023	25	A+	Spokane Indians	—	276	217	44	12	1	6	37	73	20	3	3	203	369	350	719	147	273	26	13	336	115	+5	-1	—	—	+8	1.2
2024	26	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	44	35	11	6	0	0	7	5	1	1	0	314	442	486	928	171	355	11	16	406	169	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2024	26	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	86	76	15	3	0	0	8	27	2	1	1	197	291	237	528	39	306	31	9	253	52	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
AJ Lewis (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	205/283/312	106	285	3	3	29%	8%	68	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→38	46→50	46→45	51	190/285/315	126	261	13	9	31%	11%	69	-0.4	190/284/317	127	263	14	10	31%	11%	69	-0.4	173/272/299	126	234	15	8	31%	11%	58	-0.7
✕Alex De Goti 2023 · AAA	28	44→47	42→45	51→50	49	214/289/322	109	281	8	8	26%	9%	71	-0.3	199/276/283	84	272	7	10	27%	9%	56	-1.3	177/262/235	58	247	4	10	27%	9%	36	-1.2
✕Brad Cresse 2006 · AAA	28	41	43→50	47→30	43	202/267/321	119	264	10	6	27%	7%	63	-0.9	218/278/353	135	306	15	6	32%	7%	75	-0.0	206/269/340	134	293	18	0	35%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Dan Butler 2015 · MLB	28	43→38	43→45	44→40	43	213/270/326	113	269	11	3	25%	6%	64	-0.8	220/284/316	96	287	6	3	24%	7%	67	-0.5	220/291/305	85	286	5	0	23%	8%	65	-0.3
✕Dusty Brown 2011 · AAA	29	42	44→45	47→30	43	212/272/328	116	281	12	3	28%	7%	66	-0.6	219/288/371	152	273	16	5	25%	8%	84	+0.6	214/294/383	169	256	18	1	23%	9%	90	+0.3
✕Justin Knoedler 2008 · AAA	28	45	43→45	50→45	40	217/266/333	116	298	9	10	29%	6%	64	-0.8	195/240/331	136	259	15	8	30%	5%	53	-1.5	133/185/279	146	158	19	4	31%	4%	17	-1.6
✕Danny Mendick 2022 · MLB	28	46→49	43→45	43→50	46	225/285/331	105	277	11	8	23%	7%	72	-0.2	236/295/361	125	290	14	12	23%	7%	84	+0.6	230/289/365	135	277	15	15	22%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Brad Davis 2011 · MLB	28	43	48→50	44→45	45	219/279/365	145	272	15	5	25%	7%	79	+0.3	213/262/323	110	282	10	6	27%	6%	59	-1.1	198/242/289	91	267	7	4	28%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Chris Herrmann 2016 · MLB	28	44→48	43→50	51→50	44	216/272/330	114	278	9	8	25%	6%	66	-0.6	222/297/375	153	285	17	10	27%	9%	89	+0.9	217/305/384	166	277	20	8	28%	11%	92	+0.5
✕Grayson Greiner 2020 · MLB	27	42	45	45→30	45	212/276/331	119	282	13	3	29%	8%	68	-0.5	203/266/324	121	314	14	4	37%	7%	63	-0.9	179/245/267	88	331	10	1	45%	7%	36	-0.9
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA	27	40	43→45	43→40	42	200/265/312	112	284	10	5	32%	7%	59	-1.1	218/285/362	144	262	15	6	22%	8%	81	+0.4	201/267/376	175	208	21	2	16%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Martin Cervenka 2021 · AAA	28	42→49	44→45	49→40	38	209/258/323	114	297	13	6	34%	6%	58	-1.2	196/257/321	125	276	14	8	32%	7%	58	-1.2	142/211/265	123	186	15	2	32%	8%	24	-1.3
✕Richie Martin Jr. 2022 · MLB	27	44→52	42→45	48→60	42	214/274/314	100	281	9	15	27%	6%	63	-0.9	209/283/302	93	286	5	31	27%	7%	64	-0.8	203/284/293	90	279	4	40	26%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	40	47→50	48→40	48	204/290/339	135	259	14	5	26%	9%	78	+0.2	218/297/342	124	289	13	7	27%	9%	81	+0.4	195/295/265	70	263	10	0	27%	12%	58	-0.2
✕Drew Jackson 2021 · AAA	28	39→43	43→45	49→55	40	193/262/301	108	283	11	17	34%	7%	55	-1.4	210/295/327	117	333	12	25	37%	9%	76	+0.0	198/294/307	109	322	11	32	38%	10%	68	-0.2
✕Beamer Weems 2015 · AAA	28	43→47	43→45	47→40	40	215/264/325	110	285	11	9	28%	6%	61	-1.0	207/257/304	97	252	8	7	20%	6%	52	-1.6	180/230/251	71	218	3	0	18%	6%	23	-1.4
✕Andrew Knizner 2022 · MLB	27	43	43→50	48→40	50	212/293/324	112	254	11	6	21%	8%	75	-0.0	218/287/334	116	270	13	4	23%	7%	74	-0.1	218/299/361	142	257	17	2	22%	7%	83	+0.2
✕Ryan Klosterman 2010 · AAA	28	43→45	42→45	50→55	44	213/272/316	104	275	9	15	26%	7%	63	-0.9	207/272/329	122	274	12	13	28%	7%	66	-0.6	160/272/270	110	236	10	19	33%	13%	50	-0.3
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA	28	38	44→45	48→30	43	196/259/308	112	257	13	6	29%	7%	56	-1.3	213/261/333	120	273	13	5	26%	6%	62	-0.9	210/254/324	114	266	12	1	25%	5%	54	-0.6
✕Andrew Susac 2017 · MLB	27	41→40	47→50	47→30	43	210/272/345	135	276	15	3	29%	7%	70	-0.3	196/269/337	141	275	17	5	33%	9%	68	-0.5	165/254/305	140	229	19	0	35%	10%	53	-0.5