Esteban Luna
P
FCL Orioles
Age 19
RHP
5'11" / 168 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149140vR 131
ERA5.80
FIP5.80
K%14.1%
BB%15.0%
K-BB%-0.9%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 11 | 11 | 42 | 171 | 41 | 22 | 0 | 100% | 3.8 | 16.3% | 16.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.70 | 3.76 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 11 | 11 | 42 | 171 | 41 | 22 | 0 | 100% | 3.8 | 24.0% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 1.70 | 2.72 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | 11 | 10 | 43 | 199 | 41 | 22 | 3 | 91% | 3.9 | 14.0% | 13.8% | 0.2% | 3.3% | 5.27 | 5.46 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | 11 | 10 | 43 | 199 | 41 | 22 | 3 | 91% | 3.9 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 1.5% | 5.27 | 3.64 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 10 | 4 | 26 | 121 | 18 | 18 | 2 | 40% | 2.6 | 10.1% | 18.6% | -8.5% | 2.3% | 4.44 | 5.87 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 15 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.1% | 15.0% | -0.9% | 2.9% | 5.80 | 5.80 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.1% | 15.0% | -0.9% | 2.9% | 5.80 | 5.80 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 52 | 228 | 33 | 34 | 5 | — | — | 14.5% | 14.9% | -0.4% | 2.3% | 5.11 | 5.84 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 27 | 112 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.0% | 13.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.53 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | BAL | 3 | 3 | 13 | 55 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 4.3 | 16.0% | 13.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.53 | 5.45 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 13 | 55 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.0% | 13.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.53 | 5.07 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 42 | 200 | 844 | 138 | 122 | 31 | 100% | 4.7 | 16.0% | 13.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.53 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 25 | 111 | 491 | 68 | 78 | 9 | 78% | 3.5 | 13.8% | 15.8% | -1.9% | 1.9% | 3.72 | 4.97 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 45 | 200 | 882 | 122 | 139 | 17 | 78% | 3.5 | 13.8% | 15.8% | -1.9% | 1.9% | 3.72 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Esteban Luna (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.80 | 14.1% | 15.0% | 2.9% | — | 5.45 | 16.0% | 2.3% | 27 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Danny Flatt R 2027 · 6.05 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.05 | 14.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | .304 | 5.46 | 12.5% | -1.1% | 65 | -0.59 | 5.31 | 112 | 89 |
| Miguel Vinicio R 2026 · 5.69 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.69 | 13.8% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 1.4% | 47 | -1.71 | 3.63 | 164 | 88 |
| Denis Diaz R 2027 · 5.51 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.51 | 12.7% | 16.6% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.84 | 11.9% | -4.9% | 92 | +0.33 | 3.39 | 129 | 87 |
| Felix Cepeda R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.5% | 14.6% | 3.3% | .297 | 5.96 | 17.0% | -6.4% | 71 | +0.18 | 3.61 | 204 | 87 |
| Jose Pena Jr. R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.56 | 15.0% | 18.7% | 2.5% | .269 | 4.55 | 19.2% | 3.1% | 124 | -1.01 | 3.45 | 176 | 86 |
| Reibyn Corona R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.0% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 5.61 | 14.5% | 1.7% | 63 | +0.67 | 4.38 | 190 | 86 |
| Lisandro Almonte R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.89 | 16.3% | 16.4% | 2.0% | .298 | 5.05 | 19.6% | 4.9% | 78 | +0.16 | 3.92 | 128 | 86 |
| Anderson Munoz R 2026 · 5.90 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.90 | 14.4% | 18.2% | 3.1% | .306 | 4.39 | 25.7% | 13.3% | 73 | -1.51 | 4.15 | 109 | 86 |
| Harold Chirino R 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 19 | SP- | 6.05 | 13.2% | 16.0% | 3.7% | .327 | 3.11 | 19.0% | 6.2% | 34 | -2.94 | 3.11 | 321 | 85 |
| Yosber Sanchez R 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 18 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.6% | 14.9% | 3.3% | .315 | 4.61 | 20.2% | -5.2% | 13 | -0.97 | 3.21 | 182 | 85 |
| Gage Stanifer R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.77 | 16.6% | 14.9% | 2.2% | .342 | 4.31 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 230 | -0.46 | 2.92 | 273 | 85 |
| Luis De Jesus R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 19 | SP- | 6.00 | 11.9% | 15.6% | 3.5% | .274 | 6.24 | 12.9% | -8.4% | 21 | +0.24 | 4.19 | 108 | 84 |
| Brailin Rodriguez R 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 18 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.8% | 17.8% | 2.2% | .322 | 4.90 | 16.8% | 2.1% | 76 | -0.33 | 4.09 | 168 | 84 |
| Orlando Suarez R 2026 · 6.57 FIP | 19 | SP- | 6.57 | 15.5% | 23.2% | 3.4% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 113 | 84 |
| Maiker Manuel R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.12 | 12.3% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .329 | 4.59 | 15.2% | 6.7% | 101 | -0.53 | 4.56 | 148 | 84 |
| Gillian Wernet R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.46 | 11.2% | 16.6% | 2.2% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 107 | 83 |
| Keythel Key R 2026 · 5.91 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.91 | 13.7% | 20.1% | 2.6% | .290 | 5.37 | 18.7% | 2.7% | 223 | -0.54 | 5.19 | 267 | 83 |
| Juan Gomez R 2027 · 5.39 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.39 | 10.9% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .345 | 3.58 | 11.2% | -0.1% | 61 | -1.81 | 3.58 | 113 | 83 |
| Tyler Gough R 2026 · 5.76 FIP | 19 | SP | 5.76 | 13.4% | 13.3% | 3.8% | .297 | 3.61 | 19.1% | 6.1% | 129 | -2.15 | 2.65 | 159 | 83 |
| Josh Swales R 2027 · 5.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.43 | 11.8% | 14.6% | 2.7% | .356 | 5.63 | 15.1% | 1.4% | 66 | +0.20 | 5.43 | 129 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 15.1% | 14.3% | 1.13 | 5.66 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |