Esteban Luna — OGILVIE

Esteban Luna P FCL Orioles

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 168 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.96

FIP5.96

K%14.1%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%-2.3%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	42	171	41	22	0	100%	3.8	16.3%	16.1%	0.2%	0.0%	1.70	3.76	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	42	171	41	22	0	100%	3.8	16.3%	16.1%	0.2%	0.0%	1.70	3.76	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	42	171	41	22	0	100%	3.8	24.0%	12.9%	11.1%	0.0%	1.70	2.72	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	11	10	43	199	41	22	3	91%	3.9	14.0%	13.8%	0.2%	2.6%	5.27	5.07	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	11	10	43	199	41	22	3	91%	3.9	14.0%	13.8%	0.2%	2.6%	5.27	5.07	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	11	10	43	199	41	22	3	91%	3.9	20.6%	11.1%	9.5%	1.5%	5.27	3.64	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	4	27	125	19	19	2	36%	2.5	10.3%	19.0%	-8.7%	2.2%	4.28	5.86	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	4	27	125	19	19	2	36%	2.5	10.3%	19.0%	-8.7%	2.2%	4.28	5.86	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	BAL	11	4	27	125	19	19	2	36%	2.5	15.2%	15.2%	0.0%	1.6%	4.28	4.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	40	170	27	25	5	100%	5.0	16.0%	14.7%	1.3%	2.9%	5.66	5.56	-0.3
2027	20	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	20	84	14	12	2	100%	5.0	16.0%	14.7%	1.3%	2.9%	5.66	5.56	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	20	84	13	12	2	100%	5.0	16.0%	14.7%	1.3%	2.9%	5.66	5.18	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	42	200	844	131	121	20	100%	4.8	16.0%	14.7%	1.3%	2.9%	5.66	5.18	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		33	25	112	495	69	79	8	76%	3.4	13.9%	15.9%	-2.0%	1.6%	3.69	4.82	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	45	200	881	122	140	14	76%	3.4	13.9%	15.9%	-2.0%	1.6%	3.69	4.82	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Esteban Luna (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.96	14.1%	16.4%	2.9%	—	5.56	16.0%	1.3%	40	-0.40	—	—	—
Jose Pena Jr. R 2022 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP-	5.48	15.0%	18.7%	2.3%	.269	4.62	19.2%	3.1%	124	-0.86	3.48	176	89
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	88
Anderson Munoz R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SP-	5.90	14.4%	18.2%	3.1%	.306	4.35	25.7%	13.3%	73	-1.55	4.15	109	87
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	86
Harold Chirino R 2017 · 6.05 FIP	19	SP-	6.05	13.2%	16.0%	3.7%	.327	3.11	19.0%	6.2%	34	-2.94	3.11	321	86
Yosber Sanchez R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	18	SP-	5.58	14.6%	14.9%	3.3%	.315	4.61	20.2%	-5.2%	13	-0.97	3.21	199	86
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	86
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	86
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	85
Brailin Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.19 FIP	18	SP-	5.19	15.8%	17.8%	2.1%	.322	4.82	16.8%	2.1%	76	-0.37	4.15	168	85
Maiker Manuel R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	19	SP-	5.12	12.3%	15.2%	2.1%	.329	4.59	15.2%	6.7%	101	-0.53	4.56	148	85
Xavier Javier R 2017 · 6.80 FIP	19	SP-	6.80	6.7%	23.8%	2.3%	.289	5.53	11.0%	-7.1%	65	-1.27	4.47	188	85
Mason Denaburg R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	19	SP-	4.98	12.8%	17.3%	1.4%	.328	4.95	16.3%	-0.1%	39	-0.03	4.48	151	85
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	84
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	84
Luis De Jesus R 2018 · 6.00 FIP	19	SP-	6.00	11.9%	15.6%	3.5%	.274	6.24	12.9%	-8.4%	21	+0.24	4.19	108	83
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	83
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	83
Miguel Ramirez R 2016 · 5.20 FIP	19	SP-	5.20	12.7%	18.9%	1.4%	.279	3.02	13.8%	8.7%	84	-2.18	2.40	126	82
Eliezer Pena R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	17	SP	6.54	10.5%	18.5%	3.6%	.265	4.47	18.1%	1.2%	114	-2.07	3.26	150	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	15.3%	15.4%	1.11	5.78
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91