Luke Nixon

2B San Jose Giants

Age 22 L/R A HR -15%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	21	ASF	54	.213/.315/.277	0	2	32	—	.163/.241/.204
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBSF	164	.212/.276/.305	2	3	65	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBSF	57	.212/.276/.307	1	1	68	-0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBSF	130	.214/.279/.314	2	2	71	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Whiff%86

Z-Con%78

K%71

Speed59

BB%56

Chase%37

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsAshton McGee (age 22) · Jacob Gonzalez (age 22) · Grant Witherspoon (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 72 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .274 / .302

PA72

HR1

K%28

BB%7

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	San Jose Giants	—	54	47	10	3	0	0	7	11	0	2	0	213	315	277	591	64	278	20	13	279	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	54	49	8	2	0	0	5	15	0	2	0	163	241	204	445	41	248	28	9	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	54	49	8	2	0	0	5	15	0	2	0	163	241	204	445	41	235	28	9	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	San Jose Giants	—	54	47	10	3	0	0	7	11	0	2	0	213	315	277	591	64	278	20	13	279	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	54	49	8	2	0	0	5	15	0	2	0	163	241	204	445	41	248	28	9	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	54	49	8	2	0	0	5	15	0	2	0	163	241	204	445	41	248	28	9	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SF	0%	164	150	32	7	1	2	12	46	1	3	1	212	276	305	581	93	290	28	7	264	65	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SF	34%	167	151	33	7	1	2	13	47	1	3	1	215	279	313	593	98	291	28	8	268	68	-6	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	SF	46%	282	256	55	11	1	4	22	78	2	5	1	217	282	321	603	103	292	28	8	273	71	-10	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	SF	52%	353	321	71	14	2	6	27	96	2	6	1	219	285	326	611	107	292	27	8	276	73	-11	+1	+0	+1	+8	-0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	SF	54%	400	363	80	16	2	7	31	108	3	7	2	220	286	331	617	110	292	27	8	278	75	-12	+1	+0	+1	+9	-0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	SF	54%	423	384	84	17	2	7	33	114	3	7	2	221	287	332	619	111	291	27	8	279	75	-13	+1	+0	+2	+9	-0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	SF	54%	434	394	86	17	2	7	34	118	3	6	1	219	285	327	612	109	290	27	8	276	73	-14	+1	-1	+2	+9	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	SF	34%	57	53	11	2	0	1	4	16	0	1	0	212	276	307	583	95	287	28	7	265	68	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	SF	46%	130	118	26	5	1	2	10	36	1	2	1	214	279	314	593	100	288	28	8	269	71	-5	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	SF	52%	182	165	36	7	1	3	14	50	1	3	1	216	282	319	601	103	288	27	8	272	73	-6	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	SF	54%	217	197	43	9	1	3	17	59	1	4	1	217	283	323	607	106	288	27	8	274	75	-7	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	SF	54%	229	207	45	9	1	4	18	62	2	4	1	217	284	324	608	107	287	27	8	275	75	-7	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	SF	54%	235	214	46	9	1	4	18	64	1	3	1	215	282	320	602	105	286	27	8	272	73	-7	+0	-0	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1050	954	207	41	5	17	81	287	6	17	5	217	282	324	606	107	290	27	8	272	72	-33	+1	-0	+4	+23	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	128	25	3	11	50	178	4	11	3	217	282	325	607	108	289	27	8	272	72	-21	+1	-0	+2	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2185	1985	431	87	10	34	170	596	14	37	8	217	284	322	606	105	291	27	8	274	72	-69	+4	-1	+8	+46	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	128	26	3	10	51	177	4	11	2	217	284	321	605	105	290	27	8	274	72	-21	+1	-0	+2	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Chuck Cottier'59-'69 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,770 PA	2.7	1,770	19	28	219*	280*	330*	+7	+14	0.5	0.9
/162	664	7	11	+2.7	+5.3	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.7	1,124	18	19	220	282	327	+4	+4	0.1	0.1
/162	664	10	11	+2.4	+2.4	0.0	pk7: 0
#3Bobby Lowe'01-'07 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,085 PA	3.1	2,085	4	65	229*	274*	350*	+6	+6	0.1	0.1
/162	664	1	21	+2.0	+1.8	0.0	pk7: 0
#4Doug Strange'89-'98 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,067 PA	3.1	2,067	31	14	225*	286*	340*	+5	-0	-1.5	0.0
/162	664	10	4	+1.6	-0.1	-0.5	pk7: 1
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Nixon (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	210/274/302	92	290	1	1	28%	7%	65	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ashton McGee 2021 · A	22	40	39→45	50→40	40	193/257/281	88	286	5	5	33%	7%	53	-2.1	202/288/313	111	362	10	4	42%	10%	73	-0.6	187/282/297	110	342	11	2	44%	11%	65	-0.7
✕Jacob Gonzalez 2024 · A	22	44→45	38→45	46→50	51	208/290/285	76	270	6	6	24%	9%	67	-1.1	218/275/329	111	256	11	12	19%	6%	71	-0.8	220/279/347	127	253	14	13	19%	6%	75	-0.4
✕Grant Witherspoon 2019 · A	22	39→46	40→50	52→50	36	192/241/285	93	289	8	9	35%	5%	47	-2.5	197/246/304	107	278	11	12	32%	6%	54	-2.0	212/271/360	149	286	18	14	32%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	43→40	37→45	49→55	47	202/280/276	75	285	5	6	29%	9%	61	-1.5	191/285/298	107	268	9	9	29%	11%	69	-0.9	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Christopher Familia 2022 · A	22	39	37→55	47→45	45	186/259/261	75	246	3	10	25%	7%	50	-2.3	209/272/362	153	261	19	5	27%	6%	78	-0.3	203/264/381	178	246	25	2	29%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Pratt Maynard 2012 · A	22	43	39→45	48→45	41	204/269/289	85	302	7	5	33%	7%	59	-1.6	214/275/303	89	273	7	5	23%	8%	64	-1.3	215/278/310	94	268	7	4	21%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Jason Denham 2008 · A	22	44→45	38→40	51→55	44	213/272/286	73	292	6	16	28%	7%	59	-1.6	226/286/321	95	290	10	18	24%	8%	73	-0.6	230/295/320	90	275	11	27	20%	8%	75	-0.2
✕Wuilfredo Antunez 2024 · A	22	46→41	43→55	51→50	45	223/285/341	118	292	9	12	26%	7%	77	-0.3	212/261/361	149	283	14	14	29%	6%	73	-0.6	199/246/361	161	266	17	15	31%	5%	65	-0.8
✕Jamodrick McGruder 2014 · A	22	40→44	37→40	52→50	47	193/261/259	66	255	5	10	25%	8%	50	-2.3	211/284/306	95	274	7	10	23%	9%	69	-0.9	206/287/304	98	264	6	10	22%	10%	66	-0.8
✕Carlos Soto 2021 · A	22	42	41→45	47→30	41	207/267/304	97	289	9	5	31%	6%	62	-1.4	193/273/308	115	277	10	3	31%	9%	66	-1.1	168/258/285	117	236	11	0	32%	10%	54	-0.8
✕Colton Ledbetter 2024 · A	22	45→46	42→45	46→55	44	216/279/325	109	304	8	10	30%	8%	71	-0.8	210/264/334	124	308	12	26	34%	6%	68	-1.0	209/264/327	118	303	11	30	33%	6%	65	-1.0
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→47	39→45	48→50	45	184/277/270	87	267	6	10	31%	8%	60	-1.6	204/274/301	97	277	7	11	27%	6%	65	-1.2	213/284/310	97	279	9	16	25%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Livan Soto 2022 · AA	22	37→47	40	50	42	186/244/277	91	256	7	11	30%	7%	47	-2.6	234/302/324	90	314	7	9	25%	8%	80	-0.2	246/319/331	85	322	6	8	24%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Spencer Nivens 2024 · A	22	41→49	41→45	48→50	52	199/280/294	96	255	8	14	24%	10%	65	-1.2	208/277/334	126	276	13	11	28%	9%	73	-0.6	211/281/333	122	272	12	12	26%	9%	73	-0.5
✕Raynel Delgado 2022 · A	22	38→48	40	47→60	37	187/242/274	87	288	8	13	36%	6%	46	-2.6	219/288/314	95	306	8	18	29%	8%	72	-0.7	246/311/338	92	338	7	32	27%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Brian Pointer 2014 · A	22	39→41	42→45	51→50	40	189/265/296	107	289	9	13	36%	7%	61	-1.5	210/285/338	128	315	13	12	35%	8%	77	-0.3	209/287/345	136	311	14	12	35%	9%	76	-0.3
✕Leandro Pineda 2024 · A	22	39→49	42→50	48→45	42	191/259/302	111	275	9	6	33%	7%	59	-1.6	213/280/341	128	279	13	6	27%	7%	76	-0.4	218/291/356	137	276	14	5	25%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Jose Augusto Figueroa 2015 · A	22	43	38→40	50→45	42	206/259/288	82	279	5	13	27%	6%	55	-2.0	230/267/313	83	329	4	10	30%	4%	63	-1.4	261/289/353	92	366	4	5	29%	3%	77	-0.1
✕Daniel Schneemann 2019 · A	22	37→47	40→50	50	43	184/249/278	93	269	7	6	33%	8%	49	-2.4	210/269/296	86	292	7	9	28%	7%	61	-1.5	224/304/369	145	297	14	13	28%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Ricardo Méndez 2021 · A	21	44	39→45	54→50	40	208/268/296	88	312	7	13	34%	7%	60	-1.6	217/259/315	98	317	7	13	32%	5%	61	-1.5	212/252/306	95	305	6	14	31%	5%	53	-1.3

Luke Nixon

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps