Dominic Niman — OGILVIE

Dominic Niman P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 119

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%20.5%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	14	1	39	158	39	12	3	7%	2.8	18.3%	9.0%	9.3%	2.1%	1.60	3.86	—
2025	24	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	14	1	39	158	39	12	3	7%	2.8	18.3%	9.0%	9.3%	2.1%	1.60	3.86	—
2025	24	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	14	1	39	158	39	12	3	7%	2.8	24.7%	7.6%	17.1%	1.9%	1.60	3.02	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	26	14	100	429	81	22	20	54%	3.8	14.6%	6.0%	8.6%	5.9%	4.33	5.86	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	26	14	100	429	81	22	20	54%	3.8	14.6%	6.0%	8.6%	5.9%	4.33	5.86	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	TB	5	0	13	57	16	3	0	0%	2.6	28.1%	5.3%	22.8%	0.0%	4.85	1.40	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	TB	20	14	86	367	65	19	20	70%	4.3	17.7%	5.2%	12.5%	5.4%	4.31	5.25	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	TB	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TB	93	0	98	412	86	36	12	0%	1.0	20.9%	8.8%	12.1%	2.9%	4.45	4.44	+0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	92	0	96	406	85	36	12	0%	1.0	21.0%	8.8%	12.2%	3.0%	4.46	4.47	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	89	0	93	394	82	35	12	0%	1.0	20.9%	8.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.50	4.54	+0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	TB	85	0	89	376	78	34	12	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.1%	11.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.66	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	TB	80	0	84	353	72	33	12	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.4%	10.9%	3.4%	4.74	4.84	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	TB	40	0	42	177	37	16	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	8.8%	12.1%	2.9%	4.45	4.44	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	57	0	60	253	53	22	8	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.8%	12.2%	3.0%	4.46	4.47	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	67	0	70	296	62	26	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	8.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.50	4.54	+0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	TB	69	0	72	304	63	28	10	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.1%	11.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.66	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	TB	69	0	72	304	62	29	10	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.4%	10.9%	3.4%	4.74	4.84	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		302	0	317	1337	278	121	42	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	3.2%	4.56	4.23	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	76	27	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	3.2%	4.56	4.23	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		40	15	139	587	91	40	29	38%	3.5	15.6%	6.8%	8.8%	4.9%	3.56	5.32	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	22	200	845	132	57	41	38%	3.5	15.6%	6.8%	8.8%	4.9%	3.56	5.32	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dominic Niman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	20.5%	9.0%	2.9%	—	4.48	21.0%	12.1%	287	-0.02	—	—	—
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	79
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	76
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	73
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	72
Rito Lugo L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	18.3%	7.3%	2.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	176	72
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	72
Samuel Strickland L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	24	SW	4.87	19.5%	7.3%	4.5%	.337	3.53	20.1%	14.4%	148	-1.34	2.91	292	72
Parker Mushinski L 2021 · 3.50 FIP	25	SW	3.50	24.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.357	4.06	21.3%	11.5%	143	+0.56	3.11	455	71
Tyler Holton L 2021 · 3.35 FIP	25	SW	3.35	22.0%	6.6%	2.3%	.393	3.41	22.0%	16.1%	224	+0.06	2.97	436	71
Austin Hamilton L 2019 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	17.3%	7.9%	2.5%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	135	70
Edgar Barclay L 2023 · 4.71 FIP	25	SW	4.71	23.8%	12.1%	3.8%	.307	5.59	15.7%	5.5%	157	+0.88	2.06	402	70
Matt Stalcup L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	16.2%	9.7%	1.2%	.266	6.20	11.5%	-1.2%	56	+2.58	3.62	145	70
Rob Zastryzny L 2017 · 4.88 FIP	25	SW	4.88	17.5%	8.2%	4.0%	.328	4.46	18.1%	8.9%	169	-0.42	3.34	634	70
Colin Rodgers L 2018 · 4.36 FIP	24	SW	4.36	16.8%	9.7%	2.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	313	70
Cameron Bishop L 2021 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	21.7%	10.3%	1.9%	.296	2.86	29.6%	11.8%	18	-0.76	2.86	305	70
Christian Torres L 2018 · 3.34 FIP	24	SW	3.34	15.4%	7.9%	1.0%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.75	172	69
Kohl Drake L 2023 · 4.81 FIP	23	SW	4.81	16.3%	11.9%	2.9%	.391	4.32	21.8%	12.5%	292	-0.49	3.32	327	69
Chaz Hebert L 2017 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	15.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	167	69
Lael Lockhart L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SW	4.29	22.6%	12.9%	2.7%	.302	4.94	19.6%	8.8%	307	+0.65	3.59	520	68
Brad Hand L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	25	SW	3.95	16.4%	7.6%	2.3%	.326	2.71	32.9%	25.0%	241	-1.24	0.84	577	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	80	20.8%	9.0%	1.21	4.54
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Spencer Turnbull ('24)	1.7	68	22.0%	9.2%	0.77	4.18