Matthew Tippie — OGILVIE

Matthew Tippie P Tampa Tarpons

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%23.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP33

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	37	0	47	197	59	20	4	0%	1.3	22.2%	12.0%	10.2%	2.6%	2.87	4.19	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	37	0	47	197	59	20	4	0%	1.3	22.2%	12.0%	10.2%	2.6%	2.87	4.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	NYY	37	0	47	197	59	20	4	0%	1.3	29.9%	10.2%	19.8%	2.0%	2.87	2.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYY	45	0	47	199	47	19	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.7%	14.0%	3.0%	4.38	4.33	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	45	0	48	201	48	19	6	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.3%	14.8%	3.0%	4.30	4.25	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	45	0	48	201	49	19	6	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.3%	15.0%	3.0%	4.26	4.23	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	45	0	47	198	48	19	6	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYY	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.7%	14.0%	3.0%	4.38	4.33	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	30	0	32	135	33	13	4	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.3%	14.8%	3.0%	4.30	4.25	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	36	0	38	160	39	15	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.3%	15.0%	3.0%	4.26	4.23	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	38	0	40	169	41	16	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	0	130	547	132	51	16	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.0%	4.29	3.88	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	79	25	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.0%	4.29	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		37	0	47	197	44	24	5	0%	1.3	22.2%	12.0%	10.2%	2.6%	2.87	4.19	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	0	200	838	186	100	22	0%	1.3	22.2%	12.0%	10.2%	2.6%	2.87	4.19	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matthew Tippie (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	23.1%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.27	24.0%	14.6%	142	-0.21	—	—	—
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	93
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	93
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	92
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	91
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	91
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	90
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	89
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	88
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	88
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	88
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	87
Justin Yeager R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.96	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.37	3.32	262	87
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	87
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	87
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	87
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	87
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	87
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	87
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	86
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	44	23.9%	9.5%	1.15	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81