Sam Garcia

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 25 LHP 6'4" / 218 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	15	101	4.37	4.34	24.4%	11.0%	—	K 18.5% · BB 12.7% · FIP 5.05
2026	24	AAMIL	27	1	38	5.21	2.84	29.5%	12.7%	—	K 23.9% · BB 14.0% · FIP 3.62
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIL	57	0	60	5.10	5.10	20.2%	14.0%	-0.4
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBMIL	38	0	40	5.00	4.99	20.6%	13.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBMIL	54	0	57	4.96	4.98	20.7%	13.0%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control45Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsMark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Graeme Stinson (age 25) · Paul Fry (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%20.2%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%6.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	101	438	107	48	15	60%	4.0	18.5%	12.7%	5.8%	3.5%	4.37	5.05	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	101	438	107	48	15	60%	4.0	18.5%	12.7%	5.8%	3.5%	4.37	5.05	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	15	101	438	107	48	15	60%	4.0	24.4%	11.0%	13.5%	3.4%	4.37	4.34	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	1	38	173	51	22	2	4%	1.4	23.9%	14.0%	9.9%	1.4%	5.21	3.62	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	1	38	173	51	22	2	4%	1.4	23.9%	14.0%	9.9%	1.4%	5.21	3.62	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	27	1	38	173	51	22	2	4%	1.4	29.5%	12.7%	16.8%	1.2%	5.21	2.84	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIL	57	0	60	253	51	36	7	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.0%	6.2%	2.8%	5.10	5.10	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	87	0	91	384	79	51	11	0%	1.0	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	2.8%	5.00	4.99	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	85	0	90	378	78	49	11	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.0%	7.7%	2.9%	4.96	4.98	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	83	0	87	366	76	47	11	0%	1.0	20.6%	12.9%	7.7%	3.0%	4.98	5.02	-0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	79	0	83	350	72	45	11	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.0%	7.4%	3.2%	5.07	5.13	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	74	0	78	329	73	41	11	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	3.4%	5.05	5.04	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	38	0	40	169	35	23	5	0%	1.1	20.6%	13.4%	7.2%	2.8%	5.00	4.99	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	54	0	57	241	50	31	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.0%	7.7%	2.9%	4.96	4.98	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	63	0	66	279	57	36	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	12.9%	7.7%	3.0%	4.98	5.02	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	65	0	68	287	59	37	9	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.0%	7.4%	3.2%	5.07	5.13	-0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	64	0	67	283	62	35	10	0%	1.0	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	3.4%	5.05	5.04	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		283	0	297	1253	262	162	39	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	3.1%	5.02	4.66	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	109	26	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	3.1%	5.02	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		52	16	139	611	122	80	18	31%	2.7	20.0%	13.1%	6.9%	2.9%	4.60	4.65	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	23	200	879	176	115	25	31%	2.7	20.0%	13.1%	6.9%	2.9%	4.60	4.65	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	20.2%	14.0%	2.8%	—	5.00	20.6%	7.5%	267	-0.10	—	—	—
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	83
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	80
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	79
Russell Smith L 2024 · 4.00 FIP	25	SU	4.00	19.0%	13.9%	1.4%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	175	78
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	78
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	78
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	77
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.35	164	77
Trey Cumbie L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SU	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	3.0%	.284	5.07	23.3%	7.2%	42	+0.53	3.44	152	77
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	77
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	76
Anderson Polanco L 2018 · 5.95 FIP	25	SW	5.95	19.9%	20.9%	3.4%	.298	5.09	18.9%	2.6%	47	-0.86	4.10	316	76
Houston Harding L 2023 · 5.74 FIP	25	SU	5.74	17.9%	15.0%	4.1%	.307	4.82	14.5%	3.2%	142	-0.92	3.41	239	76
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	76
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	76
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	76
Trent Szkutnik L 2019 · 4.38 FIP	25	SU	4.38	18.4%	11.8%	2.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	429	76
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	76
Evan Shawver L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	24	SW	4.08	19.4%	15.3%	1.2%	.258	4.05	18.2%	9.0%	115	-0.03	3.79	281	76
Ismael Guillón L 2017 · 4.35 FIP	25	SU	4.35	19.8%	14.8%	1.9%	.342	4.62	20.7%	8.4%	30	+0.27	4.35	193	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	81	20.8%	13.1%	1.17	5.02
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
David Purcey ('13)	1.0	41	18.8%	12.8%	0.96	4.98
Robinson Tejeda ('11)	2.2	74	19.1%	12.6%	0.96	4.42