Lucas Mahlstedt

P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX2 levels	44	60	3.45	2.42	28.0%	8.0%	—	K 21.4% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.29
2027PROJ	24	MLBLAA	38	40	4.26	4.26	21.8%	9.2%	0.1
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBLAA	23	24	4.23	4.20	22.3%	9.0%	0.1
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBLAA	35	37	4.20	4.18	22.6%	8.9%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsVince Vannelle (age 24) · Austin Smith (age 23) · Nick Altermatt (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.26

FIP4.26

K%21.8%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	60	250	70	20	3	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	1.5%	3.45	3.29	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	60	250	70	20	3	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	1.5%	3.45	3.29	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	60	250	70	20	3	0%	1.4	28.0%	8.0%	20.0%	1.2%	3.45	2.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	LAA	38	0	40	169	37	16	4	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	2.7%	4.26	4.26	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAA	52	0	55	231	52	21	6	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.0%	13.4%	2.7%	4.23	4.20	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAA	52	0	55	231	52	21	6	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	2.7%	4.20	4.18	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAA	51	0	54	228	52	21	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.0%	13.6%	2.8%	4.22	4.23	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAA	23	0	24	101	23	9	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.0%	13.4%	2.7%	4.23	4.20	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAA	35	0	37	156	35	14	4	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	2.7%	4.20	4.18	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAA	40	0	42	177	40	16	5	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.0%	13.6%	2.8%	4.22	4.23	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	0	102	432	98	39	12	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	2.7%	4.22	3.82	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	76	23	0%	1.1	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	2.7%	4.22	3.82	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		44	0	60	250	54	23	4	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	1.5%	3.45	3.29	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	0	200	833	179	77	13	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	1.5%	3.45	3.29	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Mahlstedt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	21.8%	9.2%	2.7%	—	4.20	22.5%	13.5%	163	-0.06	—	—	—
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	93
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	92
Nick Altermatt R 2024 · 3.39 FIP	24	SU	3.39	21.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.282	3.78	20.0%	13.0%	95	+0.39	2.20	144	91
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	91
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	91
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	90
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.05	20.5%	11.4%	128	+2.53	3.52	207	90
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.50	21.7%	10.0%	142	+0.88	3.62	311	90
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	90
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	90
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	90
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	89
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	89
Andrew Cashner R 2010 · 4.51 FIP	23	SU	4.51	20.2%	10.1%	3.4%	.285	3.30	19.9%	13.0%	221	-1.21	2.94	1,185	89
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	89
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	89
Dakota Donovan R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	24	SU	3.15	22.2%	8.4%	1.6%	.310	3.55	20.3%	8.9%	95	+0.40	3.15	153	89
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	88
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	88
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.55	20.8%	8.6%	123	+0.76	3.77	245	88

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	22.4%	9.0%	1.04	4.23
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Scott Oberg ('19)	1.3	51	21.5%	9.3%	0.91	3.85
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*