Connor O'Hara

P ACL Rangers

Age 26 RHP ROK peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	25	MIX3 levels	14	9	58	4.34	3.36	30.0%	7.8%	—	K 20.3% · BB 9.8% · FIP 5.30
2027PROJ	26	MLBTEX	6	6	37	4.60	4.60	21.6%	9.7%	0.1
2028PROJ36% MLB	27	MLBTEX	3	3	19	4.60	4.61	21.8%	9.7%	0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBTEX	5	5	29	4.64	4.67	21.8%	9.8%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Carlos Torres (age 26) · Nick Payero (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%21.6%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%11.9%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	9	58	243	73	19	8	64%	4.1	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	4.9%	4.34	5.30	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	9	58	243	73	19	8	64%	4.1	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	4.9%	4.34	5.30	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	9	58	243	73	19	8	64%	4.1	30.0%	7.8%	22.2%	3.3%	4.34	3.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TEX	6	6	37	156	34	15	5	100%	6.2	21.6%	9.7%	11.9%	3.1%	4.60	4.60	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	51	217	47	21	7	100%	6.4	21.8%	9.7%	12.0%	3.2%	4.60	4.61	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	50	211	46	21	7	100%	6.2	21.8%	9.8%	11.9%	3.3%	4.64	4.67	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	3	3	19	80	17	8	3	100%	6.3	21.8%	9.7%	12.0%	3.2%	4.60	4.61	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	5	5	29	122	27	12	4	100%	5.8	21.8%	9.8%	11.9%	3.3%	4.64	4.67	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	48	203	44	20	7	100%	6.9	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	3.2%	4.62	4.27	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	183	83	29	100%	6.4	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	3.2%	4.62	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		14	9	58	243	49	24	12	64%	4.1	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	4.9%	4.34	5.30	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	31	200	838	170	82	41	64%	4.1	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	4.9%	4.34	5.30	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor O'Hara (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	21.6%	9.7%	3.1%	—	4.64	21.8%	12.0%	101	+0.04	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	87
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	80
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	77
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	76
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	76
David Phelps R 2013 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	21.0%	9.0%	2.0%	.314	3.56	21.5%	13.3%	312	-0.01	2.50	672	75
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	75
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.82	13.1%	3.7%	116	+0.21	2.84	310	75
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	75
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	75
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	75
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	74
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	74
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	73
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	73
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	73
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	73
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	73
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	73
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	21.7%	9.8%	1.23	4.61
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*