Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 10 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 18.2% | -4.5% | 4.5% | 7.45 | 6.75 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 10 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 18.2% | -4.5% | 4.5% | 7.45 | 7.03 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 22 | 19 | 98 | 433 | 72 | 46 | 16 | 86% | 4.5 | 12.8% | 12.2% | 0.6% | 4.3% | 4.58 | 5.93 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 22 | 19 | 98 | 433 | 72 | 46 | 16 | 86% | 4.5 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 5.15 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 15 | 15 | 73 | 323 | 59 | 20 | 13 | 100% | 4.9 | 14.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.17 | 5.58 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 30 | 38 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 11.1% | 14.1% | -3.0% | 3.4% | 6.17 | 6.17 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.1% | 14.1% | -3.0% | 3.4% | 6.17 | 6.17 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 138 | 597 | 89 | 58 | 22 | — | — | 15.0% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.11 | 5.85 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 11.1% | 14.1% | -3.0% | 3.4% | 6.17 | 5.79 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 70 | 298 | 41 | 39 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 13.9% | 13.0% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 5.85 | 5.76 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 71 | 301 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.60 | 5.51 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 71 | 301 | 50 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.46 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 70 | 297 | 50 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.7% | 12.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 5.42 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 18 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.9% | 13.0% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 5.85 | 5.76 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.60 | 5.51 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 40 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.5% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.46 | 5.40 | -0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 42 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.7% | 12.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 5.42 | 5.41 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 33 | 33 | 195 | 822 | 131 | 101 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.9% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.54 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 135 | 104 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.9% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.54 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 47 | 34 | 181 | 800 | 107 | 84 | 37 | 72% | 3.9 | 13.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.57 | 5.83 | -0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 38 | 200 | 882 | 118 | 93 | 41 | 72% | 3.9 | 13.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.57 | 5.83 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Evan Truitt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.17 | 11.1% | 14.1% | 3.4% | — | 5.56 | 15.3% | 2.9% | 213 | -0.61 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 88 |
| Brooks Auger R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.81 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 46 | -1.19 | 3.81 | 138 | 87 |
| Mason Pelio R 2026 · 6.26 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.26 | 13.3% | 17.4% | 3.8% | .255 | 5.74 | 9.0% | -12.8% | 26 | -0.52 | 5.74 | 122 | 83 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 82 |
| Adam Maier R 2026 · 5.75 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.75 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 4.2% | .280 | 4.71 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 60 | -1.04 | 3.63 | 239 | 82 |
| Yoan López R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.60 | 10.4% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .282 | 3.58 | 25.5% | 17.4% | 153 | -2.02 | 2.16 | 377 | 81 |
| Tyler Schlaffer R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 154 | -1.01 | 4.01 | 363 | 80 |
| Victor Mederos R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.56 | 13.4% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .322 | 4.32 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 163 | -1.24 | 4.19 | 360 | 80 |
| Kevin Biondic R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.39 | 8.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.39 | 100 | 80 |
| Drew Gagnon R 2028 · 5.78 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.6% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .313 | 4.01 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 311 | -1.77 | 3.74 | 534 | 80 |
| Hayden Merda R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 79 |
| Jaison Vilera R 2025 · 5.64 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.64 | 11.2% | 12.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 7.41 | 13.8% | 5.5% | 87 | +1.77 | 3.67 | 256 | 79 |
| Jeff Brigham R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.19 | 14.5% | 11.3% | 3.4% | .327 | 3.86 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 288 | -1.33 | 3.52 | 620 | 79 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.03 | 14.3% | 14.7% | 4.2% | .272 | 4.53 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 276 | -1.50 | 4.09 | 498 | 79 |
| Baron Stuart R 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .266 | 4.16 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 187 | -1.00 | 3.55 | 287 | 79 |
| Tommy Mace R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .261 | 5.13 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.11 | 4.93 | 501 | 78 |
| Jurgen Jimenez R 2025 · 5.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.25 | 11.5% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 158 | 78 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 78 |
| Sam Wolff R 2028 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.61 | 13.9% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 3.15 | 25.1% | 15.5% | 106 | -2.46 | 2.74 | 178 | 78 |
| Reid Schaller R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .241 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 87 | -0.74 | 3.49 | 186 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 70 | 14.8% | 12.7% | 1.27 | 5.70 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |