Luis Aguilera

SS FCL Tigers
Age 20 L/R 5'11" / 145 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1349ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKDSL Tigers 2108.292/.417/.3481557—.202/.306/.223
202518ROKDSL Tigers 295.253/.333/.3370532—.174/.237/.221
202619ROKDET118.276/.356/.3240445—.211/.271/.239
2027PROJMLE20MLBDET228.224/.287/.30324680.0
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBDET40.224/.288/.3100173-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB22MLBDET99.227/.292/.32012760.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$2M2034Arb-2$3M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
K%91
Z-Con%83
Whiff%79
Speed66
wRC+34
wOBA25
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%
CompsMatt Cerda (age 20) · Alberto Rodriguez (age 20) · Jean Carlos Sio (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 62 proj PA
wRC+†68
AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .284 / .300
PA62
HR1
K%23
BB%7
ISO78
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.40.40.40.327282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2033Arb-1$2M+0.4$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2034Arb-2$3M+0.4$0.9M+$0.0M (cut)
2035Arb-3$4M+0.3$0.7M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $2M $5M +$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Tigers 2 — 10889 26011 18151 53 292417348765 56342 1417 358 57 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL Tigers 2 — 9583 21320 10100 52 253333337671 84280 1111 300 32 — — — — — —
202619 ROKFCL Tigers — 118105 29120 11142 41 276356324680 48319 129 315 45 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 10894 19010 13191 53 202306223529 21247 1812 253 57 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 9586 15210 7120 52 174237221457 47198 137 216 32 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Tigers — 118109 23110 7202 41 211271239510 28263 176 235 45 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 10894 19010 13191 53 202306223529 21253 1812 253 57 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Tigers 2 — 10889 26011 18151 53 292417348765 56342 1417 358 57 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 9586 15210 7120 52 174237221457 47197 137 216 32 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWDSL Tigers 2 — 9583 21320 10100 52 253333337671 84280 1111 300 32 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Tigers — 118109 23110 7202 41 211271239510 28258 176 235 45 — — — — — —
202619 ROK RAWFCL Tigers — 118105 29120 11142 41 276356324680 48319 129 315 45 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 10893 19010 13191 53 204306226531 22247 1812 253 57 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 9588 15210 7120 52 170237216452 45198 137 216 32 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Tigers — 118108 23110 7202 41 213271241512 28263 176 235 45 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 10893 19010 13191 53 204306226531 22247 1812 253 57 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Tigers 2 — 9588 15210 7120 52 170237216452 45198 137 216 32 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Tigers — 118108 23110 7202 41 213271241512 28263 176 235 45 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEDET 0% 228208 47622 16532 41 224287303589 78290 237 268 68 -9 +0 -1 +2 +5 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEDET 34% 115105 23311 8271 21 228292316607 88291 237 275 73 -4 +0 -1 +1 +2 -0.1
202922 MLB MLEDET 48% 205186 44623 15472 41 231295327622 96292 237 281 76 -6 +0 -1 +2 +4 0.0
203023 MLB MLEDET 54% 300272 65935 22693 62 233298335633 102293 237 286 80 -7 +0 -1 +3 +6 0.2
203124 MLB MLEDET 55% 374339 791136 28854 82 235300342643 107293 237 290 82 -8 +1 -1 +4 +8 0.5
203225 MLB MLEDET 56% 417378 901347 32954 92 236302347649 111293 238 292 84 -8 +1 +0 +4 +9 0.7
203326 MLB MLEDET 56% 440400 941348 331004 93 236302348650 112293 238 292 84 -8 +1 +0 +5 +10 0.7
203427 MLB MLEDET 55% 450409 971448 341034 93 235301345646 110293 238 291 83 -9 +1 +0 +5 +10 0.6
203528 MLB MLEDET 55% 450409 951348 341044 93 233299341640 107292 238 288 81 -10 +1 -1 +5 +10 0.5
203629 MLB MLEDET 53% 443403 931347 331044 83 231296335632 104291 237 285 79 -11 +0 -1 +5 +10 0.2
203730 MLB MLEDET 57% 432393 891237 321034 73 229293328621 99290 247 281 76 -12 +0 -2 +5 +9 -0.0
202821 MLB CTXDET 34% 4037 7100 390 10 224288310598 85286 228 272 73 -1 +0 -0 +0 +1 -0.0
202922 MLB CTXDET 48% 9991 21311 7231 21 227292320612 93287 237 277 76 -3 +0 -0 +1 +2 0.0
203023 MLB CTXDET 54% 163148 34512 12372 31 230295329623 99288 237 282 80 -4 +0 -0 +2 +4 0.1
203124 MLB CTXDET 55% 207187 43623 16472 41 231297335632 104289 238 285 82 -4 +0 -0 +2 +4 0.2
203225 MLB CTXDET 56% 233211 49724 18532 51 232298340638 108289 238 288 84 -4 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.4
203326 MLB CTXDET 56% 247224 51724 19562 51 232298340639 108289 238 288 84 -5 +1 +0 +3 +5 0.4
203427 MLB CTXDET 55% 249226 52724 19572 51 231297338635 107288 238 287 83 -5 +1 +0 +3 +5 0.4
203528 MLB CTXDET 55% 247224 51724 19572 51 230296334629 104288 238 284 81 -5 +1 -0 +3 +5 0.3
203629 MLB CTXDET 53% 237215 50724 18552 41 228293328621 101287 238 281 79 -6 +0 -1 +3 +5 0.1
203730 MLB CTXDET 57% 247225 51724 18592 42 225290321611 96285 247 277 76 -7 +0 -1 +3 +5 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 19691788 409571630 14945317 3810 229294329623 100289 238 283 78 -45 +4 -4 +21 +43 1.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650590 13519510 491506 133 229295329623 100289 238 283 78 -15 +1 -1 +7 +14 0.6
Career— MLE — 40093640 8401123661 30290338 8629 231296332628 101289 238 283 78 -86 +5 -7 +40 +80 3.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650590 13618610 491466 145 231296332628 102288 228 283 78 -15 +1 -1 +7 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Tigers · 118 PAwOBA .308 → .235 (−72)K% 11.9% → 17.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.86%÷1.000×1.440——17.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.32%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0085.82%
HBP% /PA1.69%—×0.720—×1.0081.23%
Singles /BIP28.57%÷1.000×0.820×1.012×1.00823.88%
Doubles /BIP1.10%÷1.000×0.720×1.012×1.0080.81%
Triples /BIP2.20%÷1.000×0.720×1.012×1.0081.61%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .308 → .235; ISO .048 → .034; BABIP .319 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Tigers 2 · 95 PAwOBA .295 → .216 (−80)K% 10.5% → 13.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.53%÷0.991×1.220——12.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.47%÷0.974×0.700—×1.0086.86%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.700—×1.0080.00%
Singles /BIP21.92%÷0.994×0.680×1.039×1.00815.69%
Doubles /BIP4.11%÷0.962×0.600×1.039×1.0082.68%
Triples /BIP2.74%÷0.900×0.600×1.039×1.0081.91%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.048×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .295 → .216; ISO .084 → .060; BABIP .280 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Tigers 2 · 108 PAwOBA .350 → .253 (−97)K% 13.9% → 17.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.89%÷0.986×1.220——17.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.67%÷0.973×0.700—×1.02212.26%
HBP% /PA0.93%—×0.700—×1.0220.66%
Singles /BIP32.43%÷0.995×0.680×1.050×1.02223.81%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.951×0.600×1.050×1.0220.00%
Triples /BIP1.35%÷1.135×0.600×1.050×1.0220.77%
Home runs /BIP1.35%÷0.995×0.470—×1.0220.65%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 127, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .350 → .253; ISO .056 → .030; BABIP .342 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).