Erick Lugo

SS DSL Tampa Bay

Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKTB	52	.318/.423/.409	0	1	51	—	.196/.288/.239
2025	18	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	100	.259/.351/.329	0	0	19	—	.159/.237/.205
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBTB	210	.207/.275/.279	1	1	58	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBTB	41	.214/.282/.294	0	0	63	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBTB	127	.217/.286/.306	1	1	68	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Chase%73

K%58

Whiff%54

wOBA38

wRC+38

ISO32

CompsAndres Melendez (age 20) · Jose Ramos (age 20) · Frank Rodriguez (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .273 / .277

PA59

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	52	44	14	4	0	0	6	15	2	1	0	318	423	409	832	91	483	29	12	382	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	85	22	6	0	0	10	20	2	0	0	259	351	329	680	71	328	20	10	306	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	52	46	9	2	0	0	4	18	2	1	0	196	288	239	528	43	317	35	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	88	14	4	0	0	7	24	2	0	0	159	237	205	442	45	200	24	7	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	52	46	9	2	0	0	4	18	2	1	0	196	288	239	528	43	321	35	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	—	52	44	14	4	0	0	6	15	2	1	0	318	423	409	832	91	483	29	12	382	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	88	14	4	0	0	7	24	2	0	0	159	237	205	442	45	212	24	7	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	85	22	6	0	0	10	20	2	0	0	259	351	329	680	71	328	20	10	306	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	52	46	9	2	0	0	4	18	2	1	0	196	288	239	528	43	317	35	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	91	14	4	0	0	7	24	2	0	0	154	237	198	435	44	200	24	7	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	52	46	9	2	0	0	4	18	2	1	0	196	288	239	528	43	317	35	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	91	14	4	0	0	7	24	2	0	0	154	237	198	435	44	200	24	7	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TB	0%	210	190	39	8	1	1	15	58	3	1	1	207	275	279	554	72	289	28	7	254	58	-10	-0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	TB	34%	118	106	22	4	1	1	9	32	2	1	0	211	280	293	573	82	290	27	8	262	63	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	TB	48%	263	239	51	10	1	3	19	71	3	2	1	215	284	305	589	90	291	27	7	268	68	-10	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	TB	54%	367	332	73	14	2	5	27	98	5	2	1	218	287	315	603	97	292	27	7	274	71	-12	+0	+0	+4	+8	-0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	TB	55%	438	396	87	17	2	6	33	116	6	2	1	221	290	324	615	103	293	26	8	279	75	-13	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.1
2032	25	MLB MLE	TB	56%	480	434	98	19	3	8	37	126	6	3	1	223	293	332	624	109	293	26	8	282	77	-13	+0	+0	+5	+10	0.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	TB	56%	505	456	102	20	3	8	38	133	6	3	1	223	293	334	627	110	293	26	8	283	78	-13	+0	+0	+5	+11	0.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	TB	55%	516	466	104	20	3	8	39	136	6	3	1	222	292	331	623	109	292	26	8	282	77	-14	+0	+0	+6	+11	0.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	TB	55%	519	468	104	20	3	8	40	138	6	2	2	221	290	327	617	106	292	27	8	279	75	-15	-0	-1	+6	+11	0.0
2036	29	MLB MLE	TB	53%	514	464	102	20	2	8	39	138	6	2	5	218	287	321	608	103	291	27	8	276	73	-17	-2	-1	+6	+11	-0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	TB	34%	41	37	8	2	0	0	3	11	1	0	0	214	282	294	576	80	293	27	7	263	63	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	TB	48%	127	115	25	5	1	1	9	34	2	1	0	217	286	306	592	89	294	27	7	270	68	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	TB	54%	199	179	40	8	1	2	15	53	3	1	0	220	289	316	605	96	295	27	8	275	71	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	TB	55%	243	220	48	9	1	3	18	64	3	1	1	223	292	325	617	102	296	26	7	280	75	-7	-0	+0	+3	+5	0.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	TB	56%	269	244	54	10	1	4	20	71	3	1	1	225	294	332	626	107	296	26	7	283	77	-7	-0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	TB	56%	284	256	59	11	2	5	22	75	4	2	1	225	295	334	629	109	296	26	8	284	78	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	TB	55%	285	257	59	11	2	5	22	75	4	1	1	224	294	331	625	107	296	26	8	283	77	-8	-0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	TB	55%	285	258	57	11	1	4	22	76	3	1	1	223	292	327	619	104	295	27	8	280	75	-8	-0	-0	+3	+6	0.0
2036	29	MLB CTX	TB	53%	275	249	54	10	1	4	21	74	3	1	3	220	289	321	611	101	294	27	8	277	73	-9	-1	-1	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2008	1815	404	77	10	28	152	533	26	9	8	223	292	322	614	100	298	27	8	279	72	-61	-1	-1	+22	+44	0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	131	25	3	9	49	173	8	3	3	223	291	321	613	99	298	27	8	279	72	-20	-0	-0	+7	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3931	3549	776	152	20	55	296	1046	51	21	13	219	288	319	607	101	292	27	8	275	72	-116	-1	-2	+40	+82	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	128	25	3	9	49	173	8	3	2	218	287	317	604	99	291	27	8	275	72	-20	-0	-0	+7	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3George Strickland'50-'60 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,266 PA	4.9	3,266	36	12	219*	302*	329*	+28	+19	3.8	5.0
/162	664	7	2	+5.7	+3.8	0.8	pk7: 6
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.1	2,066	31	11	221	287	325	+22	+18	1.5	1.6
/162	664	10	3	+7.1	+5.8	0.5	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Erick Lugo (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	205/273/277	71	289	0	0	28%	7%	58	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andres Melendez 2021 · A	20	43	37→50	46→40	46	206/267/283	78	262	4	5	22%	7%	57	-1.8	213/291/333	120	335	11	5	36%	9%	78	-0.3	196/288/335	139	309	13	2	37%	11%	76	-0.2
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	41→44	36→50	48→45	43	194/262/264	70	258	3	9	25%	6%	51	-2.2	218/281/363	145	322	16	4	35%	7%	81	-0.1	210/279/360	150	310	18	4	36%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Frank Rodriguez 2022 · A	20	40	36→45	48→30	44	190/262/257	67	265	4	4	28%	7%	50	-2.3	183/239/269	86	267	8	4	33%	5%	43	-2.8	183/244/267	84	241	9	1	27%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2019 · A	20	34	37→45	47→40	47	164/238/229	66	203	5	3	22%	7%	35	-3.4	205/261/282	77	259	5	4	22%	6%	55	-2.0	227/269/318	92	274	7	1	19%	4%	65	-0.4
✕Christian Cairo 2021 · A	20	39→49	35→40	48→60	44	184/266/243	59	279	2	9	32%	8%	49	-2.4	191/294/274	83	293	6	15	33%	11%	68	-1.0	219/314/286	67	298	3	31	25%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Payton Henry 2017 · A	20	44→32	36→45	45→30	39	207/265/280	74	298	3	5	30%	5%	56	-1.9	186/252/288	102	315	10	3	41%	6%	53	-2.1	244/299/348	104	334	12	0	29%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	39	37→50	47→45	46	188/260/261	73	250	5	9	26%	8%	50	-2.3	207/250/323	116	289	11	6	31%	5%	60	-1.6	192/240/305	113	271	11	8	32%	6%	50	-1.0
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	36→44	40→50	47→50	46	175/264/271	96	263	7	8	34%	10%	55	-2.0	204/267/339	135	290	14	10	33%	7%	70	-0.8	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Marco Guzman 2015 · A	20	38	37→50	44→50	51	181/256/254	72	222	4	7	20%	8%	47	-2.6	202/251/280	78	244	4	7	18%	6%	50	-2.3	218/259/314	97	279	5	8	23%	5%	59	-0.6
✕Emilio Guerrero 2013 · A	20	37→42	37→45	47→45	38	179/229/252	73	261	4	7	32%	5%	35	-3.4	214/260/304	90	295	7	8	28%	5%	59	-1.7	221/259/335	114	296	9	5	28%	4%	63	-0.7
✕Andres Regnault 2018 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	43	175/246/237	62	253	4	6	31%	7%	39	-3.1	208/272/308	100	260	8	7	22%	6%	65	-1.2	204/273/325	121	234	12	6	18%	6%	69	-0.4
✕Emilio King 2010 · A	20	39	37→45	50→40	43	185/269/261	75	247	3	9	25%	6%	55	-2.0	201/250/286	85	299	6	4	33%	4%	51	-2.2	211/248/304	94	307	7	2	33%	3%	51	-1.1
✕Xavier Fernández 2015 · A	20	42	35→45	41→40	45	197/251/259	62	249	2	4	21%	6%	45	-2.7	222/269/313	91	268	8	3	20%	5%	64	-1.3	233/283/351	119	276	13	2	20%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	39→50	45→50	45	198/273/287	89	286	6	8	31%	8%	61	-1.5	229/297/377	148	305	16	5	29%	7%	91	+0.6	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Ricardo Genovés 2019 · A	20	42→43	37→45	45→30	43	199/256/273	73	260	4	4	24%	6%	51	-2.3	221/278/327	106	318	10	4	32%	6%	72	-0.7	199/268/313	114	282	13	0	32%	7%	62	-0.8
✕Denzer Guzman 2024 · A	20	39→49	40→45	48→50	39	191/246/287	96	288	7	7	35%	7%	50	-2.3	209/268/322	113	303	11	10	33%	7%	67	-1.1	217/278/341	124	295	14	11	30%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Darrien Miller 2021 · A	20	42	36→45	47→45	43	198/274/269	70	273	3	8	27%	6%	57	-1.8	204/306/321	117	276	13	6	29%	9%	82	+0.0	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Rayner Contreras 2007 · A	20	45	38→40	48→50	42	215/265/293	78	291	5	6	27%	6%	58	-1.7	233/288/323	90	303	6	10	24%	6%	74	-0.6	245/295/326	81	326	5	11	25%	5%	74	-0.2
✕Ali Sánchez 2017 · A	20	46	35→45	45→40	44	216/269/273	57	275	3	6	22%	6%	55	-1.9	224/262/293	69	271	5	4	18%	5%	57	-1.8	247/298/343	95	318	11	1	25%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	38	36→50	50→45	44	181/261/246	65	268	3	13	31%	8%	47	-2.5	202/271/300	98	303	9	5	34%	6%	63	-1.3	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3

Erick Lugo

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps