Caden Ferraro

OF Peoria Chiefs

Age 22 L/L A+ HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2268ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	21	A+STL	85	.216/.310/.405	3	0	55	—	.169/.238/.299
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBSTL	195	.227/.293/.361	4	2	84	0.0
2028PROJ25% MLB	23	MLBSTL	24	.229/.295/.363	1	0	86	-0.0
2029PROJ36% MLB	24	MLBSTL	61	.231/.298/.367	1	1	88	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Chase%87

Whiff%87

Z-Con%70

ISO68

K%58

BB%41

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 93%

CompsAndrew Pullin (age 22) · Austin Gallagher (age 22) · Chris Marrero (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj PA

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .290 / .358

PA48

HR1

K%27

BB%8

ISO134

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	85	74	16	3	1	3	9	19	1	0	1	216	310	405	715	189	245	22	11	316	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	85	77	13	2	1	2	6	24	1	0	1	169	238	299	537	130	213	28	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	85	77	13	2	1	2	6	24	1	0	1	169	238	299	537	130	212	28	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	85	74	16	3	1	3	9	19	1	0	1	216	310	405	715	189	245	22	11	316	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	85	78	13	2	1	2	6	24	1	0	1	167	238	295	533	128	213	28	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	85	78	13	2	1	2	6	24	1	0	1	167	238	295	533	128	213	28	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	STL	0%	195	176	40	7	2	4	15	53	2	2	1	227	293	361	654	134	293	27	8	292	84	-4	+0	-1	-1	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	STL	25%	94	86	20	4	1	2	7	25	1	1	0	229	295	366	662	137	294	27	7	296	86	-2	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	STL	36%	167	150	34	6	1	4	13	44	2	1	1	231	298	371	669	140	295	26	8	298	88	-2	-0	-1	-1	+4	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	STL	43%	235	213	50	9	2	6	18	61	2	2	1	232	299	374	673	142	295	26	8	300	89	-3	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	STL	47%	291	263	60	11	2	7	23	75	3	2	1	232	300	376	676	143	294	26	8	301	90	-3	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	STL	48%	321	290	67	12	2	8	25	83	3	2	1	232	300	375	675	143	294	26	8	301	90	-4	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	STL	48%	337	305	70	13	2	8	26	88	3	2	1	230	298	370	668	140	293	26	8	298	88	-5	+0	-2	-2	+7	-0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	STL	48%	337	305	69	13	2	8	26	89	3	2	2	228	295	364	659	136	291	26	8	295	86	-6	-0	-3	-2	+7	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	STL	25%	24	22	5	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	229	295	363	658	134	296	25	8	294	86	-0	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	STL	36%	61	55	11	2	0	1	5	16	1	1	0	231	298	367	665	136	297	26	8	297	88	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	STL	43%	101	91	21	4	1	2	8	26	1	1	0	232	299	370	669	138	297	26	8	299	89	-1	+0	-0	-1	+2	0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	STL	47%	136	123	28	5	1	3	11	35	1	1	0	232	300	372	672	139	296	26	8	300	90	-2	+0	-0	-1	+3	0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	STL	48%	153	139	32	6	1	4	12	40	1	1	1	232	300	371	671	139	295	26	8	300	90	-2	-0	-1	-1	+3	-0.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	STL	48%	163	147	34	6	1	4	13	43	2	1	1	230	298	366	664	136	294	26	8	297	88	-2	-0	-1	-1	+4	-0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	STL	48%	160	146	33	6	1	4	12	42	1	1	1	228	295	360	655	132	293	26	8	293	86	-3	-0	-1	-1	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	798	723	164	30	5	19	63	208	7	6	3	227	295	361	656	134	289	26	8	297	87	-11	+0	-4	-5	+17	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	133	24	4	15	51	169	6	5	2	226	294	357	651	131	289	26	8	297	87	-9	+0	-3	-4	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	1915	1733	393	72	13	46	148	502	18	12	8	227	294	363	657	136	290	26	8	296	87	-26	-0	-9	-11	+40	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	133	24	4	16	50	170	6	4	3	226	293	362	655	136	289	26	8	296	87	-9	-0	-3	-4	+14	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 85 PAwOBA .312 → .250 (−62)K% 22.4% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.35%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	28.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.59%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	7.61%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.94%
Singles /BIP	16.36%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.977	×1.012	14.88%
Doubles /BIP	5.45%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.977	×1.012	4.37%
Triples /BIP	1.82%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.977	×1.012	1.53%
Home runs /BIP	5.45%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	4.42%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .312 → .250; ISO .189 → .150; BABIP .245 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.2	796	20	5	232	296	373	-5	-12	0.6	0.6
/162	664	16	4	-4.0	-10.0	0.5	pk7: 1
#5Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#6Jolbert Cabrera'98-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	18	38	247*	295*	354*	-3	-9	-1.1	-0.7
/162	664	8	16	-1.4	-4.0	-0.5	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Caden Ferraro (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	225/290/358	133	293	1	0	27%	8%	84	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrew Pullin 2016 · A	22	47→49	42→50	38→40	41	232/272/335	103	284	11	3	22%	4%	70	-0.8	239/278/375	136	293	13	4	23%	4%	82	+0.0	238/278/389	151	291	15	3	23%	4%	82	+0.0
✕Austin Gallagher 2011 · A	22	48→49	41→45	38→30	42	233/277/331	98	298	8	2	24%	6%	71	-0.8	235/300/364	129	294	14	3	23%	8%	88	+0.5	234/309/375	141	286	16	1	23%	9%	91	+0.5
✕Chris Marrero 2010 · AA	22	47→55	49→55	38→30	41	238/290/385	147	307	17	2	28%	6%	89	+0.5	255/304/377	122	321	13	3	24%	6%	93	+0.8	261/311/376	114	324	12	1	22%	6%	92	+0.6
✕Josh Ockimey 2018 · AA	22	44→46	47→50	39→30	44	212/286/347	135	317	15	3	36%	9%	80	-0.2	206/292/365	159	310	19	3	37%	10%	86	+0.3	185/284/338	154	274	19	0	37%	12%	76	-0.3
✕Robbie Tenerowicz 2017 · A	22	43→51	43→50	37→45	38	214/263/326	111	293	10	4	30%	5%	65	-1.2	226/279/334	108	290	10	6	24%	6%	74	-0.6	229/315/373	145	282	17	2	24%	7%	95	+0.7
✕Cal Mitchell 2022 · AAA	23	47→54	45→50	40→50	39	234/276/357	123	299	14	6	26%	4%	78	-0.3	242/294/377	135	307	14	11	25%	6%	88	+0.5	236/294/376	140	302	15	12	26%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Rhyne Hughes 2008 · AA	24	49→57	43→55	36→45	41	238/287/354	116	319	10	3	28%	6%	80	-0.1	232/285/373	141	328	14	4	32%	6%	84	+0.2	211/274/368	157	303	17	4	34%	7%	77	-0.2
●Stephen Parker 2010 · A	22	44→53	41→45	40	41	213/262/311	98	287	8	4	28%	6%	61	-1.5	241/301/367	126	310	12	3	25%	7%	89	+0.5	242/305/366	124	312	12	3	25%	7%	89	+0.5
●Tommy Joseph 2013 · AA	22	45→48	47→60	36→30	40	228/273/360	133	290	15	2	27%	5%	77	-0.3	218/263/340	122	274	14	3	25%	5%	69	-0.9	242/293/442	200	276	27	1	23%	6%	104	+1.2
●John Bowker 2006 · A	23	45→55	45→55	37→45	40	226/270/346	120	298	13	4	28%	5%	72	-0.7	245/288/378	133	312	13	5	25%	5%	86	+0.3	266/325/436	170	315	19	6	21%	7%	114	+2.0
✕J.T. Hall 2007 · A	23	48→50	42→45	38→45	39	231/277/344	113	308	8	6	27%	5%	74	-0.5	228/279/350	122	317	11	6	30%	6%	77	-0.3	222/279/345	123	309	11	4	30%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Beau Mills 2010 · AA	23	48→49	47→50	40→30	41	240/281/378	138	293	15	2	24%	5%	84	+0.2	233/277/369	136	274	15	3	21%	5%	81	-0.1	226/273/366	139	262	16	1	20%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Xavier Paul 2006 · A	21	46→56	43→50	39→55	41	219/282/336	117	328	10	4	34%	7%	75	-0.5	253/302/371	118	354	11	14	30%	6%	90	+0.6	277/328/399	122	368	10	18	26%	6%	104	+1.0
✕John Drennen 2009 · A	22	45→55	40→45	40→45	44	216/272/306	90	273	7	5	23%	6%	64	-1.3	239/288/350	111	289	8	3	19%	6%	80	-0.2	250/301/374	124	298	8	1	18%	6%	88	+0.3
●Brian Dopirak 2006 · A	22	40→50	45→55	37→30	39	206/249/327	121	264	14	3	28%	5%	61	-1.5	223/267/355	132	296	15	3	29%	5%	74	-0.6	246/289/419	173	315	21	1	28%	5%	95	+0.9
✕Brock Peterson 2006 · A	22	46→53	45→50	41→40	43	223/290/347	124	303	12	3	29%	7%	81	-0.1	240/300/389	149	310	16	4	27%	6%	94	+0.9	241/301/396	154	308	17	2	26%	6%	93	+0.7
✕Chris McGuiness 2011 · A	23	46→49	46→50	41→30	51	226/309/353	127	289	13	4	26%	10%	89	+0.5	213/286/333	120	281	13	3	27%	9%	76	-0.4	221/297/360	139	273	14	0	23%	9%	84	+0.2
✕Aaron Baker 2011 · A	23	40→49	49→50	39→40	41	208/267/356	147	268	16	4	28%	6%	74	-0.5	219/270/360	141	293	15	4	29%	6%	76	-0.4	215/265/353	139	286	15	3	30%	6%	71	-0.5
✕Tyler Neslony 2018 · AA	24	48	39→55	34→55	44	228/283/316	88	294	7	3	24%	6%	70	-0.8	222/269/318	96	296	7	8	26%	6%	65	-1.2	252/308/418	166	323	14	14	25%	7%	99	+0.6
✕Drew Ward 2017 · AA	22	46→48	43→50	40→30	39	216/276/326	109	328	11	2	36%	7%	70	-0.8	219/285/342	123	330	13	2	35%	8%	78	-0.3	206/273/357	151	318	18	1	39%	7%	74	-0.3

Caden Ferraro

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps