Connor McGinnis — OGILVIE

Connor McGinnis2B Somerset Patriots

Age 23 L/R 6'1" / 185 lbs AA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION237 act + 158 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .280 / .333

PA158

HR3

K%28

BB%6

BABIP289

ISO118

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 33 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT33

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.4M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	64	59	10	1	1	0	5	23	0	0	0	169	234	220	455	51	278	36	8	199	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	64	56	11	1	1	0	8	17	0	0	0	196	297	250	547	54	282	27	12	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	NYY	—	237	214	47	11	1	4	14	77	9	5	0	220	295	336	632	117	323	32	6	279	72	-8	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.1
YTD	23	AA	NYY	—	237	208	55	14	1	5	20	59	9	5	0	264	354	413	768	149	347	25	8	347	124	+6	+1	+0	+1	+7	1.5
ROS	23	AA	NYY	2%	158	144	31	6	1	3	10	45	3	3	0	215	280	333	614	118	291	28	6	276	69	-5	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.0
ROS	23	MLB	NYY	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						292	33	0	262	59	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	NYY	—	240	217	47	11	1	4	14	78	9	5	0	217	292	332	623	115	319	32	6	279	71	-8	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.1
TOT	23	AA	NYY	—	395	358	78	17	2	7	24	122	12	8	0	218	289	335	625	117	309	31	6	278	71	-13	+2	+0	+1	+11	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	NYY	31%	319	288	64	13	2	6	22	89	6	6	1	222	291	344	635	122	291	28	7	282	74	-9	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.2
2028	25	MLB	NYY	45%	376	340	75	15	2	8	26	103	7	7	1	221	290	347	637	126	291	27	7	287	78	-10	+1	+0	+1	+11	0.4
2029	26	MLB	NYY	51%	411	372	83	17	2	9	29	111	7	8	1	223	292	352	644	129	291	27	7	289	79	-10	+1	+0	+1	+12	0.5
2030	27	MLB	NYY	53%	422	381	85	17	2	9	31	114	7	8	1	223	294	349	643	126	291	27	7	290	80	-9	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.5
2031	28	MLB	NYY	53%	426	385	85	17	2	9	31	116	7	8	1	221	291	345	636	125	291	27	7	289	79	-10	+1	-1	+2	+12	0.4
2032	29	MLB	NYY	57%	420	379	84	17	2	9	31	115	7	8	1	222	293	348	641	127	290	27	7	287	78	-10	+1	-1	+1	+12	0.3
2027	24	MLB	NYY	31%	99	90	20	4	1	2	7	27	2	2	0	222	293	356	648	133	293	27	7	271	66	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.0
2028	25	MLB	NYY	45%	168	151	35	7	1	4	12	46	3	3	1	232	301	371	672	139	293	27	7	276	69	-6	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.0
2029	26	MLB	NYY	51%	209	188	43	9	1	5	15	56	4	4	1	229	300	367	667	138	293	27	7	279	72	-7	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.0
2030	27	MLB	NYY	53%	222	200	45	9	1	5	16	60	4	4	1	225	295	355	650	130	293	27	7	280	72	-7	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2031	28	MLB	NYY	53%	227	204	45	9	1	5	17	62	4	4	1	221	293	348	641	127	292	27	7	279	72	-7	+0	-0	+1	+6	-0.0
2032	29	MLB	NYY	57%	239	215	48	10	1	5	18	65	4	5	1	223	295	349	644	126	291	27	8	277	70	-8	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1167	1051	236	48	6	26	85	317	21	22	5	225	296	356	651	131	295	27	7	278	71	-39	+2	-1	+4	+33	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	131	27	3	14	47	177	12	12	3	224	295	352	647	128	295	27	7	278	71	-22	+1	-1	+2	+18	-0.0
Career	—			—	2596	2348	517	103	14	53	185	716	44	48	6	220	289	344	633	124	291	28	7	285	76	-70	+7	-2	+9	+74	1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	130	26	4	13	46	179	11	12	2	221	290	345	635	124	293	28	7	285	76	-18	+2	-1	+2	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	64	56	11	1	1	0	8	17	0	0	0	196	297	250	547	54	282	27	12	260	57	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,167	24	23	223	290	349	+4	+3	1.1	1.1
	/162	664	14	13	223	290	349	+2.4	+1.7	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Connor McGinnis (OGILVIE)	23	28→33	37→42	47→52	49	218/289/335	117	309	7	8	31%	6%	71	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrian Del Castillo 2023 · A	23	36→43	44→50	52→40	42	187/249/306	120	252	12	7	30%	7%	51	-1.7	207/278/346	139	286	15	3	31%	8%	73	-0.1	222/289/402	180	281	22	1	28%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→44	42→55	51→45	45	198/266/301	103	259	9	11	26%	7%	56	-1.3	220/277/364	144	296	17	6	30%	6%	78	+0.2	223/282/380	157	291	20	3	30%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	39	45→55	47→45	45	200/277/324	124	256	13	8	27%	7%	68	-0.5	216/273/378	162	292	20	4	32%	6%	80	+0.4	212/264/396	184	278	26	0	33%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Jose Brizuela 2016 · A	23	41→40	43→50	50→45	46	204/274/320	117	274	10	7	28%	8%	65	-0.7	211/268/334	123	297	13	5	32%	7%	66	-0.6	195/247/325	130	268	17	1	33%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Austin Davidson 2016 · A	23	37→40	43→45	41→45	43	188/254/291	103	226	11	8	22%	5%	50	-1.8	219/283/334	115	270	10	7	22%	7%	72	-0.2	227/291/351	124	279	11	6	22%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Raynel Delgado 2023 · AA	23	40→50	39→40	49→60	43	195/265/283	88	276	7	15	30%	7%	51	-1.7	229/292/326	97	319	8	23	29%	7%	73	-0.1	242/304/336	94	333	8	32	28%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Livan Soto 2022 · AA	22	36→46	40	50	41	181/235/274	93	246	8	11	29%	6%	36	-2.7	225/291/315	90	302	7	9	26%	8%	70	-0.3	236/307/320	84	310	7	8	24%	9%	76	+0.0
✕Chris Pieters 2018 · A	23	45	41→45	51→55	44	215/279/319	105	286	7	13	26%	7%	66	-0.6	207/259/301	94	296	6	11	30%	6%	53	-1.5	165/200/219	54	252	0	15	33%	4%	4	-0.8
✕Caleb Roberts 2023 · AA	23	41→42	43→45	50	43	199/278/313	114	297	11	12	34%	8%	65	-0.7	202/279/326	124	295	11	11	33%	8%	69	-0.4	187/272/303	117	258	12	11	30%	8%	58	-0.7
✕Taylor Grzelakowski 2018 · A	24	43	41→45	50→30	42	210/261/306	96	282	8	8	28%	6%	55	-1.4	214/275/307	93	325	6	3	33%	7%	61	-1.0	207/272/296	89	313	6	1	33%	8%	55	-0.7
✕Jacob Wetzel 2023 · A	23	39→35	44→45	49→50	45	196/278/309	113	276	13	10	32%	9%	64	-0.8	190/263/303	113	285	10	13	34%	8%	56	-1.3	175/248/290	115	270	9	16	36%	8%	43	-1.1
✕Randy Florentino 2023 · A	23	37	40→50	47→45	41	183/247/269	86	275	9	6	35%	8%	40	-2.4	197/245/284	87	262	8	6	27%	6%	42	-2.3	183/224/259	76	232	7	4	24%	5%	25	-1.0
✕Dallas Poulk 2011 · A	23	42	40→30	50	44	204/263/298	94	276	7	8	28%	7%	53	-1.5	210/276/281	71	300	3	9	28%	8%	54	-1.4	203/274/265	61	294	1	8	29%	8%	47	-1.3
✕Pratt Maynard 2013 · A	23	44	38→45	47→45	44	211/263/284	74	271	5	7	24%	6%	50	-1.8	223/287/330	107	281	9	5	22%	8%	72	-0.2	224/298/346	122	275	10	2	21%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	39	42→45	47→50	39	198/255/299	101	269	10	10	30%	5%	51	-1.7	211/272/334	123	278	13	9	28%	6%	67	-0.5	201/263/321	120	259	14	7	27%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Matthew Sweeney 2011 · AA	23	41→40	43→50	48→45	40	201/261/311	110	293	10	4	34%	7%	56	-1.3	186/249/296	110	271	10	4	33%	7%	47	-1.9	155/224/269	113	219	10	1	33%	7%	27	-1.2
✕Alvaro Ramirez 2009 · A	23	45	38→40	49→55	46	213/277/299	86	263	5	15	20%	6%	60	-1.0	238/293/315	77	287	5	16	18%	5%	70	-0.3	298/358/375	77	330	4	27	10%	5%	111	+1.0
✕Anthony Seigler 2022 · A	23	41→39	42→50	44→55	44	196/272/305	109	295	9	6	34%	9%	60	-1.0	191/297/306	115	253	10	15	26%	13%	72	-0.2	226/317/363	137	277	12	28	21%	11%	91	+0.6
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	39→36	44→40	55→50	44	196/275/315	119	256	11	15	27%	7%	64	-0.8	212/300/304	92	266	8	14	22%	9%	72	-0.2	211/311/283	71	261	6	15	19%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Kameron Misner 2021 · A	23	46→43	39→50	54→55	48	217/293/303	87	305	6	13	29%	9%	68	-0.5	199/283/333	134	317	13	21	38%	10%	72	-0.2	205/283/356	150	291	16	27	33%	9%	75	+0.0