Jesús García — OGILVIE

Jesús García P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 141 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%21.7%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	18	0	34	159	38	13	0	0%	1.9	16.3%	10.2%	6.0%	0.0%	5.24	3.02	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	18	0	34	159	38	13	0	0%	1.9	16.3%	10.2%	6.0%	0.0%	5.24	3.02	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	18	0	34	159	38	13	0	0%	1.9	23.9%	8.2%	15.7%	0.0%	5.24	2.02	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	14	0	23	93	30	7	2	0%	1.6	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	2.9%	2.78	4.02	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	14	0	23	93	30	7	2	0%	1.6	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	2.9%	2.78	4.02	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	14	0	23	93	30	7	2	0%	1.6	32.3%	7.5%	24.7%	2.2%	2.78	2.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	32	0	51	206	41	15	6	0%	1.6	13.7%	9.3%	4.4%	4.4%	3.53	5.52	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	32	0	51	206	41	15	6	0%	1.6	13.7%	9.3%	4.4%	4.4%	3.53	5.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	STL	5	0	8	28	8	1	0	0%	1.7	28.6%	3.6%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.14	—
2026	20	A RAW	STL	27	0	43	178	33	14	6	0%	1.6	18.5%	7.9%	10.7%	3.4%	4.22	4.38	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	STL	50	0	52	221	49	20	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	2.9%	4.39	4.34	+0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	STL	52	0	55	232	54	20	7	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.7%	14.6%	2.8%	4.26	4.17	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	STL	54	0	57	241	58	20	7	0%	1.1	24.0%	8.4%	15.7%	2.8%	4.13	4.04	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	STL	56	0	58	247	61	20	7	0%	1.0	24.5%	8.2%	16.4%	2.8%	4.03	3.96	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	STL	56	0	59	250	62	20	7	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.0%	16.9%	2.8%	3.95	3.90	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	STL	56	0	59	250	63	20	7	0%	1.1	25.1%	8.0%	17.1%	2.8%	3.91	3.88	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	STL	56	0	58	246	62	20	7	0%	1.0	25.1%	8.1%	17.0%	2.8%	3.92	3.92	+0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	STL	25	0	26	110	24	10	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.28	4.23	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	STL	38	0	40	169	39	15	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.7%	14.6%	2.6%	4.15	4.06	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	STL	46	0	48	203	49	17	5	0%	1.0	24.0%	8.4%	15.7%	2.6%	4.02	3.93	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	STL	50	0	52	220	54	18	6	0%	1.0	24.5%	8.2%	16.4%	2.6%	3.92	3.85	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	STL	51	0	54	228	57	18	6	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.0%	16.9%	2.6%	3.84	3.79	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	STL	52	0	55	232	58	19	6	0%	1.1	25.1%	8.0%	17.1%	2.6%	3.80	3.77	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	STL	52	0	55	232	58	19	6	0%	1.1	25.1%	8.1%	17.0%	2.6%	3.81	3.81	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		315	0	331	1398	341	116	36	0%	1.1	24.4%	8.3%	16.1%	2.6%	3.94	3.51	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	206	70	22	0%	1.1	24.4%	8.3%	16.1%	2.6%	3.94	3.51	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		64	0	108	458	75	44	12	0%	1.7	16.3%	9.6%	6.6%	2.6%	3.92	4.35	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	0	200	848	138	82	22	0%	1.7	16.3%	9.6%	6.6%	2.6%	3.92	4.35	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesús García (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	21.7%	9.7%	2.9%	—	4.18	23.2%	14.5%	164	-0.30	—	—	—
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	90
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	89
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	88
Enmanuel Marcano R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	20	SU	4.32	21.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	138	88
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	87
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	86
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	86
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	86
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	86
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	86
Osiris German R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	20.6%	8.7%	3.3%	.346	3.15	26.3%	15.5%	59	-1.11	3.11	187	85
Kai Wynyard R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	20	SU	4.27	21.1%	9.1%	3.3%	.269	4.12	16.5%	3.9%	138	-0.15	3.32	257	85
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	85
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	85
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	85
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	85
Victor Castaneda R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	20	SU	3.95	21.1%	8.9%	2.7%	.348	4.99	20.1%	9.2%	230	+1.04	2.90	377	85
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	85
Sean Boyle R 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SU	4.70	21.3%	7.8%	4.4%	.342	2.87	22.6%	15.3%	86	-1.83	2.87	543	85
Scott Williams R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	21	SU	3.39	22.0%	8.6%	1.9%	.238	3.73	19.3%	10.5%	76	+0.34	2.89	119	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	52	24.1%	8.4%	1.08	4.09
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19