Christopher Alvarado

SS FCL Red Sox

Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 162 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	149	.281/.434/.430	1	13	73	—	.190/.324/.281
2026	19	ROKBOS	154	.243/.431/.330	1	28	65	—	.188/.320/.258
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBBOS	264	.209/.295/.291	2	8	69	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBBOS	73	.220/.305/.315	1	2	75	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBBOS	162	.224/.309/.328	2	5	79	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

BB%90

Speed90

wRC+59

wOBA58

K%53

Whiff%46

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 94%

CompsAdrian Pinto (age 20) · Nacho Alvarez Jr. (age 20) · Jared Serna (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 128 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .293 / .289

PA128

HR1

K%26

BB%10

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 36

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT49

scouting grade only

POWER36

scouting grade only

EYE74

scouting grade only

SPEED72

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	176	146	38	5	0	0	24	27	4	16	8	260	379	295	674	34	314	15	14	318	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	149	114	32	10	2	1	27	25	4	13	2	281	434	430	864	149	337	17	18	383	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	154	115	28	3	2	1	35	32	3	28	10	243	431	330	762	87	325	21	23	362	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	176	154	27	3	0	0	16	34	4	16	8	175	270	195	465	19	218	19	9	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	149	121	23	6	1	1	20	31	4	13	2	190	324	281	605	91	230	21	13	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	154	128	24	2	2	1	22	46	3	28	10	188	320	258	578	70	275	30	14	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	176	154	27	3	0	0	16	34	4	16	8	175	270	195	465	19	221	19	9	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	176	146	38	5	0	0	24	27	4	16	8	260	379	295	674	34	314	15	14	318	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	149	121	23	6	1	1	20	31	4	13	2	190	324	281	605	91	237	21	13	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	149	114	32	10	2	1	27	25	4	13	2	281	434	430	864	149	337	17	18	383	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	154	128	24	2	2	1	22	46	3	28	10	188	320	258	578	70	280	30	14	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	154	115	28	3	2	1	35	32	3	28	10	243	431	330	762	87	325	21	23	362	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	176	154	27	3	0	0	16	34	4	16	8	175	270	195	465	19	218	19	9	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	149	124	23	6	1	1	20	31	4	13	2	185	324	274	598	89	230	21	13	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	154	128	24	2	2	1	22	46	3	28	10	188	320	258	578	70	275	30	14	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	176	154	27	3	0	0	16	34	4	16	8	175	270	195	465	19	218	19	9	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	149	124	23	6	1	1	20	31	4	13	2	185	324	274	598	89	230	21	13	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	154	128	24	2	2	1	22	46	3	28	10	188	320	258	578	70	275	30	14	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	264	233	48	8	2	2	26	70	3	8	2	209	295	291	587	82	283	27	10	271	69	-10	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	211	186	40	7	1	3	20	55	3	6	2	214	300	308	608	94	285	26	9	279	75	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	334	295	64	11	2	5	32	85	4	10	2	218	304	320	624	103	286	25	10	285	79	-8	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2030	23	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	417	369	82	14	3	7	40	106	5	13	3	221	306	330	637	109	287	25	10	290	82	-9	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	473	419	93	16	3	8	45	119	6	15	4	224	308	338	646	114	289	25	10	293	85	-9	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.8
2032	25	MLB MLE	BOS	56%	505	446	100	17	3	10	48	126	6	16	4	225	309	343	652	118	289	25	10	296	86	-8	+2	+0	+5	+11	1.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	BOS	56%	523	462	104	18	3	10	50	130	6	16	4	225	309	343	653	118	289	25	10	296	86	-9	+2	+0	+6	+11	1.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	530	468	105	18	3	10	51	133	6	16	4	224	308	341	649	117	288	25	10	294	85	-9	+2	+0	+6	+11	1.0
2035	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	529	467	104	18	3	10	51	134	6	15	4	222	306	336	643	114	287	25	10	292	84	-10	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.8
2036	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	522	461	101	17	3	9	50	134	6	14	4	220	304	330	634	110	286	26	10	288	81	-12	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.5
2037	30	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	513	454	98	17	3	8	49	133	5	13	4	217	300	323	623	106	285	26	10	284	78	-13	+1	-2	+5	+11	0.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	501	444	95	16	3	8	47	132	5	11	4	213	296	313	609	100	282	26	9	278	74	-15	+1	-3	+5	+11	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	73	65	14	3	0	1	7	19	1	2	1	220	305	315	621	96	294	26	10	284	75	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	162	143	32	6	1	2	16	41	2	5	1	224	309	328	637	105	295	25	10	290	79	-4	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	226	199	45	8	1	4	22	57	3	7	2	227	312	338	650	111	296	25	10	295	82	-5	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	262	232	54	10	2	5	25	66	3	8	2	230	314	346	659	116	298	25	10	299	85	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2032	25	MLB CTX	BOS	56%	283	251	58	11	2	5	27	71	3	9	2	231	315	351	665	120	298	25	10	301	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	BOS	56%	294	261	60	11	2	5	28	73	3	9	2	231	315	351	666	120	298	25	10	301	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2034	27	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	293	260	59	11	2	5	28	74	3	9	2	230	314	349	662	119	297	25	10	300	85	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2035	28	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	290	257	59	11	2	5	28	73	3	8	2	228	312	344	656	116	296	25	10	297	84	-6	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.4
2036	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	279	247	56	10	2	5	27	71	3	7	2	226	309	338	647	112	295	25	10	294	81	-6	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	270	239	53	10	1	4	26	70	3	7	2	223	306	331	636	108	293	26	10	289	78	-7	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	261	232	50	9	1	4	24	69	3	6	2	219	301	321	622	102	291	26	9	284	74	-8	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2693	2386	540	100	16	45	258	684	30	77	20	226	310	338	648	112	297	25	10	295	80	-57	+7	-4	+29	+58	3.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	130	24	4	11	62	165	7	19	5	226	308	339	647	113	296	25	10	295	80	-14	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5665	4988	1084	184	34	91	553	1432	70	206	60	217	304	323	627	105	284	25	10	286	80	-113	+14	-7	+56	+112	6.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	124	21	4	10	63	164	8	24	7	217	303	320	623	103	284	25	10	286	80	-14	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.2	2,821	48	82	221	302	332	+30	+21	5.5	5.0
/162	664	11	19	+7.1	+4.9	1.3	pk7: 5
#6Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Christopher Alvarado (OGILVIE)	20	44→49	31→36	67→72	74	207/293/289	82	283	1	4	26%	10%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	47	40→45	60→65	53	222/313/322	100	267	5	29	18%	9%	84	+0.1	234/309/354	120	293	11	18	23%	8%	90	+0.6	231/312/342	111	292	7	11	21%	9%	84	+0.0
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→54	39→40	55→50	58	237/332/330	93	293	6	14	20%	12%	93	+0.8	243/319/335	92	311	8	14	23%	8%	88	+0.5	244/321/332	88	312	8	14	22%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Jared Serna 2022 · A	20	40→48	38→45	56→50	56	186/292/266	79	230	4	22	19%	11%	65	-1.2	214/282/332	118	267	11	17	23%	7%	74	-0.5	217/275/346	129	264	14	15	23%	6%	72	-0.5
✕Cristofer Torin 2024 · A	19	46→55	38→40	54→50	54	219/299/292	73	262	5	19	18%	9%	72	-0.7	235/310/323	88	290	7	11	20%	9%	82	+0.0	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Derrik Gibson 2010 · A	20	48→56	37→40	56→55	45	224/290/300	76	303	3	16	26%	7%	70	-0.9	206/266/261	55	280	1	18	25%	7%	51	-2.3	246/312/318	73	319	3	11	22%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Abiatal Avelino 2014 · A	19	50→54	36→45	60→55	50	229/296/300	71	270	2	24	15%	7%	72	-0.7	231/278/311	80	292	4	22	21%	5%	67	-1.1	253/294/359	106	312	9	19	21%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Ryan Brett 2012 · A	20	48→58	40→45	57→60	47	227/276/330	103	266	5	18	16%	6%	70	-0.8	251/295/355	104	308	7	26	20%	5%	83	+0.1	266/307/374	108	325	8	30	20%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2016 · A	20	50	39→45	60→65	52	228/315/331	103	312	4	16	26%	10%	86	+0.3	205/273/295	90	330	6	26	36%	7%	62	-1.4	220/296/327	107	310	12	41	30%	9%	75	-0.2
✕Jett Williams 2024 · AA	20	44→48	45→50	60→55	54	209/324/338	129	296	11	25	30%	12%	93	+0.8	216/310/345	129	299	10	23	28%	11%	88	+0.4	214/300/348	134	288	11	26	27%	10%	82	+0.0
✕Che-Hsuan Lin 2009 · A	20	44→54	41→40	58→55	45	214/276/316	101	271	7	21	23%	6%	68	-1.0	239/308/317	78	289	5	20	18%	8%	80	-0.2	245/318/310	65	292	4	22	16%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	43→53	40→50	57→55	43	207/267/301	93	294	6	22	30%	7%	61	-1.5	237/294/369	132	297	12	21	23%	7%	86	+0.3	245/302/388	143	293	14	19	20%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→51	39→45	59→55	46	195/272/287	91	280	4	17	30%	9%	60	-1.6	220/296/307	87	294	6	17	25%	9%	74	-0.6	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Leo Rivas 2018 · A	20	47→56	37→40	56→65	55	217/314/292	75	284	3	19	23%	11%	78	-0.3	191/275/274	83	293	5	10	33%	10%	59	-1.7	244/357/336	92	322	8	44	24%	14%	103	+1.0
✕Ricardo Ferreira 2016 · A	21	52	35→30	60	58	235/338/301	66	307	2	25	21%	12%	88	+0.5	219/281/293	74	322	4	19	30%	7%	64	-1.3	223/263/298	74	316	6	25	30%	5%	55	-0.6
✕Nick Morabito 2024 · A	21	48→58	37→40	55→65	44	217/297/293	76	324	4	18	32%	8%	71	-0.8	250/316/335	85	345	6	36	27%	7%	87	+0.4	255/322/343	88	346	7	42	26%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Charlie Culberson 2008 · A	19	45→54	38→45	60→50	41	212/274/296	84	304	4	18	30%	6%	63	-1.4	218/263/298	80	292	5	11	26%	5%	58	-1.7	253/299/420	167	321	18	9	26%	5%	101	+0.6
✕Brandon Dailey 2012 · A	20	47	37→45	58→55	44	219/280/295	76	302	3	17	27%	7%	64	-1.3	195/243/292	97	286	8	8	33%	5%	50	-2.3	171/212/271	100	247	8	5	33%	4%	31	-1.3
✕Jorge Mateo 2015 · A	20	40→50	38→50	60→65	46	194/261/276	83	257	5	30	26%	8%	53	-2.1	213/260/315	102	302	6	37	30%	6%	61	-1.5	217/266/353	136	277	13	42	26%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Luisangel Acuña 2022 · A	20	46→56	43→45	55→60	44	224/285/329	105	303	11	25	29%	7%	74	-0.5	247/299/356	109	328	10	34	26%	7%	85	+0.2	257/304/361	104	328	9	39	23%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Enmanuel Tejeda 2024 · A	19	45→36	39→40	55→60	56	209/320/298	89	285	6	19	26%	12%	82	-0.0	221/297/305	84	297	7	25	26%	9%	74	-0.6	206/283/289	83	268	8	31	25%	8%	63	-0.7

Christopher Alvarado

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps