Enderson Mercado

Enderson Mercado P Wilson Warbirds

Age 19 LHP 5'11" / 177 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 44 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117126vR 135

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%16.3%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%5.1%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 2	11	8	42	194	51	19	1	73%	3.8	17.9%	12.2%	5.6%	1.2%	5.95	3.78	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 2	11	8	42	194	51	19	1	73%	3.8	26.3%	9.8%	16.5%	0.5%	5.95	2.34	—
2025	18	MIX	2 levels	19	16	73	318	77	28	8	84%	3.8	16.9%	10.8%	6.1%	3.2%	4.71	4.80	—
2025	18	MIX	2 levels	19	16	73	318	77	28	8	84%	3.8	24.2%	8.8%	15.4%	2.5%	4.71	3.57	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	A	Wilson Warbirds	17	7	63	326	58	55	7	41%	3.7	13.2%	19.9%	-6.7%	2.8%	8.29	6.04	-1.1
ROS	19	MLB	MIL	42	0	44	185	30	21	5	0%	1.0	16.3%	11.2%	5.1%	3.0%	5.15	5.15	-0.3
ROS	19	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.3%	11.2%	5.1%	2.9%	5.12	5.12	—
2026 TOT	19	MLB	MIL	—	—	107	511	88	76	12	—	—	17.3%	14.8%	2.4%	2.4%	7.00	5.68	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	MIL	8	8	46	194	34	20	6	100%	5.8	17.6%	10.5%	7.1%	2.9%	4.98	4.92	-0.2
2028	21	MLB	MIL	8	8	48	204	38	20	6	100%	6.0	18.4%	10.0%	8.4%	2.8%	4.82	4.75	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	MIL	8	8	51	214	42	20	6	100%	6.3	19.6%	9.4%	10.2%	2.8%	4.65	4.55	0.0
2030	23	MLB	MIL	9	9	53	222	45	20	6	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.1%	11.3%	2.8%	4.51	4.42	+0.1
2031	24	MLB	MIL	9	9	54	228	48	20	6	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	2.7%	4.40	4.33	+0.1
2032	25	MLB	MIL	9	9	55	231	49	20	6	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	2.7%	4.32	4.27	+0.2
2033	26	MLB	MIL	9	9	55	231	50	20	6	100%	6.1	21.5%	8.7%	12.8%	2.7%	4.28	4.25	+0.2
2034	27	MLB	MIL	9	9	54	227	49	20	6	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.8%	12.8%	2.8%	4.28	4.29	+0.2
2035	28	MLB	MIL	9	9	52	220	47	20	6	100%	5.8	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	2.9%	4.33	4.37	+0.1
2036	29	MLB	MIL	8	8	50	211	45	19	6	100%	6.2	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	3.0%	4.43	4.50	+0.0
2037	30	MLB	MIL	8	8	47	198	41	19	6	100%	5.9	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	3.2%	4.58	4.68	-0.1
2027	20	MLB	MIL	4	4	23	97	17	10	3	100%	5.8	17.6%	10.5%	7.1%	2.8%	4.95	4.89	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	MIL	6	6	35	148	27	15	4	100%	5.8	18.4%	10.0%	8.4%	2.8%	4.79	4.72	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	MIL	7	7	43	182	36	17	5	100%	6.1	19.6%	9.4%	10.2%	2.7%	4.62	4.52	+0.0
2030	23	MLB	MIL	8	8	47	198	41	18	5	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.1%	11.3%	2.7%	4.48	4.39	+0.1
2031	24	MLB	MIL	8	8	50	211	44	19	6	100%	6.2	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	2.7%	4.37	4.30	+0.1
2032	25	MLB	MIL	8	8	51	215	46	19	6	100%	6.4	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	2.7%	4.29	4.24	+0.2
2033	26	MLB	MIL	9	9	52	220	47	19	6	100%	5.8	21.5%	8.7%	12.8%	2.7%	4.25	4.22	+0.2
2034	27	MLB	MIL	8	8	51	215	46	19	6	100%	6.4	21.5%	8.8%	12.8%	2.7%	4.25	4.26	+0.2
2035	28	MLB	MIL	8	8	50	211	45	19	6	100%	6.2	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	2.8%	4.30	4.34	+0.1
2036	29	MLB	MIL	8	8	47	198	42	18	6	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	2.9%	4.40	4.47	+0.0
2037	30	MLB	MIL	7	7	45	190	40	18	6	100%	6.4	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	3.1%	4.54	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			81	81	493	2082	430	190	58	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.1%	11.5%	2.8%	4.44	4.04	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	174	77	24	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.1%	11.5%	2.8%	4.44	4.04	+3.2
Career	—			47	31	178	838	131	123	22	66%	3.8	15.7%	14.7%	1.0%	2.6%	6.27	5.05	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—			53	35	200	942	148	138	24	66%	3.8	15.7%	14.7%	1.0%	2.6%	6.27	5.05	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Enderson Mercado (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	16.3%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.73	18.6%	8.6%	145	-0.42	—	—	—
Gabriel Agostini L 2026 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	13.5%	12.4%	2.9%	.246	5.63	9.5%	-16.8%	12	+0.49	1.97	122	85
Colin Schmid L 2027 · 4.81 FIP	20	SP-	4.81	11.8%	9.7%	2.7%	.298	4.01	15.2%	5.7%	125	-0.80	3.24	191	85
Zuher Yousuf L 2026 · 3.98 FIP	19	SP-	3.98	19.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.256	4.24	15.6%	3.4%	50	+0.26	3.02	137	83
Juan Sanchez L 2025 · 4.49 FIP	18	SP-	4.49	14.2%	13.3%	1.7%	.333	3.31	24.3%	13.2%	103	-1.18	3.07	345	83
Wilker Reyes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP	19	SP-	4.25	13.4%	11.3%	1.5%	.341	4.31	18.0%	4.2%	120	+0.06	3.55	237	83
Thomas Ireland L 2028 · 4.50 FIP	21	SP-	4.50	16.7%	8.7%	3.1%	.286	3.55	17.3%	8.3%	177	-0.95	2.94	221	82
Wilkin Paredes L 2026 · 4.23 FIP	19	SP	4.23	16.2%	9.1%	2.4%	.353	4.88	11.8%	3.1%	248	+0.65	4.23	294	81
Kyle Twomey L 2029 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP-	4.08	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.89	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.19	3.89	141	81
Sam Hentges L 2026 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP-	4.34	18.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.333	3.91	18.9%	7.4%	192	-0.43	2.22	594	81
Wilgenis Alvarado L 2026 · 4.88 FIP	19	SP-	4.88	10.5%	11.0%	2.3%	.289	5.49	14.8%	-3.3%	80	+0.61	4.81	122	80
Bodi Rascon L 2027 · 4.55 FIP	20	SP-	4.55	15.4%	8.8%	3.0%	.271	5.56	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.01	4.55	218	80
Luis Rico L 2028 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	17.2%	13.0%	3.4%	.303	5.16	17.8%	5.9%	105	-0.01	4.43	199	80
Gabriel Reyes L 2026 · 4.04 FIP	19	SP-	4.04	14.0%	8.0%	2.0%	.347	4.02	19.3%	9.7%	144	-0.02	1.74	233	79
Rafael Monsion L 2026 · 4.13 FIP	19	SP-	4.13	16.1%	7.2%	2.7%	.252	5.17	16.2%	6.4%	22	+1.04	4.01	159	79
Sonny Vargas L 2025 · 4.31 FIP	18	SW	4.31	15.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.370	4.43	21.0%	10.9%	54	+0.12	3.20	165	78
Daritzon Feliz L 2026 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	15.5%	9.3%	2.9%	.356	6.46	16.5%	2.6%	53	+1.89	4.42	186	78
Conner Menez L 2028 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP-	4.05	16.0%	8.5%	2.2%	.282	3.87	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.18	2.03	503	78
Luis Guzman L 2026 · 4.81 FIP	19	SP-	4.81	11.7%	14.0%	1.7%	.307	4.41	14.7%	8.8%	59	-0.40	4.41	116	78
Deyer Zapata L 2025 · 4.37 FIP	18	SP	4.37	18.8%	14.3%	1.9%	.309	5.40	17.5%	4.0%	50	+1.03	3.61	130	78
Jacob Heatherly L 2026 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	11.6%	13.8%	2.3%	.315	6.27	18.1%	-9.1%	39	+1.13	4.49	192	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	12	51	20.2%	9.4%	1.10	4.54
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Daniel Hudson ('24)	9	52	25.5%	8.9%	1.13	3.75