Enderson Mercado

Enderson Mercado P Wilson Warbirds

Age 19 LHP 5'11" / 177 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.0 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116125vR 133

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%16.3%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%4.4%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$26M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	11	8	42	194	51	19	1	73%	3.8	17.9%	12.2%	5.6%	0.9%	5.95	3.63	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	11	8	42	194	51	19	1	73%	3.8	17.9%	12.2%	5.6%	0.9%	5.95	3.63	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	11	8	42	194	51	19	1	73%	3.8	26.3%	9.8%	16.5%	0.5%	5.95	2.34	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	16	73	318	77	28	8	84%	3.8	16.9%	10.8%	6.1%	3.3%	4.71	4.84	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	16	73	318	77	28	8	84%	3.8	16.9%	10.8%	6.1%	3.3%	4.71	4.84	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	16	73	318	77	28	8	84%	3.8	24.2%	8.8%	15.4%	2.5%	4.71	3.57	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	26	10	96	484	84	72	11	38%	3.7	12.8%	17.6%	-4.7%	3.0%	8.13	5.86	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	26	10	96	484	84	72	11	38%	3.7	12.8%	17.6%	-4.7%	3.0%	8.13	5.86	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A RAW	MIL	26	10	96	484	84	72	11	38%	3.7	17.4%	14.9%	2.5%	2.3%	8.13	4.77	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	99	418	73	46	12	100%	6.6	17.5%	10.9%	6.6%	2.9%	5.04	4.98	-0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	104	439	80	45	13	100%	6.9	18.2%	10.2%	8.1%	2.9%	4.87	4.80	+0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	109	461	89	44	13	100%	6.8	19.3%	9.5%	9.8%	2.8%	4.69	4.59	+0.4
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	113	478	96	44	13	100%	6.7	20.1%	9.1%	11.0%	2.8%	4.55	4.45	+0.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	116	490	101	44	13	100%	6.8	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	2.7%	4.44	4.36	+0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	118	497	105	44	13	100%	6.9	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	2.7%	4.36	4.31	+0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	118	497	106	43	13	100%	6.9	21.3%	8.7%	12.5%	2.7%	4.31	4.28	+0.9
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	116	489	104	43	14	100%	6.8	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	2.8%	4.32	4.32	+0.8
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	112	474	100	43	14	100%	6.6	21.1%	9.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.41	+0.6
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	107	453	95	42	14	100%	6.7	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.47	4.54	+0.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	101	426	87	40	14	100%	6.7	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.62	4.72	+0.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	94	397	80	39	14	100%	6.7	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	3.4%	4.80	4.92	-0.0
2039	32	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	87	367	72	38	14	100%	6.7	19.7%	10.2%	9.4%	3.7%	5.01	5.14	-0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	49	207	36	23	6	100%	7.0	17.5%	10.9%	6.6%	3.1%	5.12	5.06	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	76	321	59	33	10	100%	6.9	18.2%	10.2%	8.1%	3.0%	4.95	4.88	+0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	92	388	75	37	11	100%	6.6	19.3%	9.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.67	+0.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	102	431	87	39	12	100%	6.8	20.1%	9.1%	11.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.53	+0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	107	452	93	40	13	100%	6.7	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.52	4.44	+0.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	110	464	98	41	13	100%	6.9	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	2.9%	4.43	4.38	+0.8
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	112	473	101	41	13	100%	6.6	21.3%	8.7%	12.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.35	+0.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	110	464	99	41	13	100%	6.9	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	2.9%	4.40	4.40	+0.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	107	452	95	41	14	100%	6.7	21.1%	9.0%	12.2%	3.0%	4.45	4.49	+0.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	102	431	90	40	14	100%	6.8	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	3.2%	4.55	4.62	+0.4
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	96	405	83	39	14	100%	6.9	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.4%	4.71	4.81	+0.2
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	89	376	76	37	14	100%	6.8	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	3.6%	4.89	5.01	-0.0
2039	32	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	83	350	69	36	14	100%	6.9	19.7%	10.2%	9.4%	3.9%	5.11	5.24	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	183	1233	5207	1059	486	161	100%	6.7	20.3%	9.3%	11.0%	3.1%	4.64	4.26	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	172	79	26	100%	6.7	20.3%	9.3%	11.0%	3.1%	4.64	4.26	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		56	34	211	996	151	143	26	61%	3.8	15.1%	14.4%	0.7%	2.7%	6.52	5.10	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	32	200	943	142	135	25	61%	3.8	15.1%	14.4%	0.7%	2.7%	6.52	5.10	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Enderson Mercado (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	16.3%	11.9%	3.0%	—	4.78	18.4%	8.2%	312	-0.46	—	—	—
Gabriel Agostini L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	13.5%	12.4%	2.9%	.246	5.63	9.5%	-16.8%	12	+0.49	1.97	122	85
Colin Schmid L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SP-	4.81	11.8%	9.7%	2.7%	.298	4.10	15.2%	5.7%	125	-0.71	3.24	191	84
Juan Sanchez L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	18	SP-	4.49	14.2%	13.3%	1.7%	.333	3.36	24.3%	13.2%	103	-1.13	3.07	345	84
Wilker Reyes L 2021 · 4.23 FIP	19	SP-	4.23	13.4%	11.3%	1.5%	.341	4.32	18.0%	4.2%	120	+0.09	3.76	237	83
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	81
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	81
Sonny Vargas L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	18	SW	4.31	15.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.370	4.54	21.0%	10.9%	54	+0.23	3.20	165	81
Luis Rico L 2015 · 4.61 FIP	21	SP-	4.61	17.2%	13.0%	2.4%	.303	5.03	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.42	4.30	199	80
Wilgenis Alvarado L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	19	SP-	4.88	10.5%	11.0%	2.3%	.289	5.43	14.8%	-3.3%	80	+0.55	4.70	122	80
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	79
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	79
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	79
Rafael Monsion L 2019 · 4.13 FIP	19	SP-	4.13	16.1%	7.2%	2.7%	.252	5.19	16.2%	6.4%	22	+1.06	4.01	159	78
Luis Viloria L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	19	SW	4.18	14.2%	8.7%	2.1%	.255	4.83	22.6%	4.3%	39	+0.65	3.16	101	78
Conner Menez L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	21	SP-	4.10	16.0%	8.5%	2.3%	.282	3.83	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.27	2.03	503	78
Yeury Gervacio L 2018 · 4.88 FIP	19	SW	4.88	13.9%	13.8%	2.2%	.376	4.70	17.8%	4.2%	65	-0.18	4.10	184	78
Luis Guzman L 2015 · 4.81 FIP	19	SP-	4.81	11.7%	14.0%	1.7%	.307	4.41	14.7%	8.8%	59	-0.40	4.41	116	78
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	77
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	77
Sam Hentges L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP-	4.34	18.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.333	3.99	18.9%	7.4%	192	-0.35	2.22	609	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.2	103	20.1%	9.5%	1.14	4.61
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32