Enderson Mercado
P
Wilson Warbirds
+0.2
WAR
Age 19
LHP
5'11" / 177 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.2 · 2033
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.0%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2033
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 194 | 51 | 19 | 1 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 1.1% | 5.95 | 3.75 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 18 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 19 | 16 | 73 | 318 | 77 | 28 | 8 | 16.9% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.88 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A | Wilson Warbirds | 3 | 1 | 12 | 60 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 16.0% | 17.7% | 0.0% | 6.00 | 3.99 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 264 | 57 | 25 | 8 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 19 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 75 | 324 | 70 | 34 | 8 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 4.75 | 4.43 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 61 | 25 | 8 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.37 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 66 | 26 | 8 | 22.7% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.26 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 72 | 26 | 9 | 23.6% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.10 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 77 | 26 | 9 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 3.98 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 81 | 26 | 9 | 24.9% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.89 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 330 | 83 | 26 | 9 | 25.2% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.83 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 330 | 84 | 25 | 9 | 25.4% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.84 | 3.81 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 327 | 83 | 25 | 9 | 25.5% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.83 | 3.82 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 82 | 25 | 9 | 25.4% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 3.84 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 80 | 25 | 9 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.87 | 3.89 | +1.0 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 77 | 24 | 9 | 25.1% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 3.92 | 3.95 | +0.9 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 73 | 24 | 9 | 24.9% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 4.03 | +0.8 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 70 | 23 | 9 | 24.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.06 | 4.11 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 33 | 25 | 127 | 572 | 98 | 69 | 13 | 17.1% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 5.24 | 4.40 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 39 | 200 | 901 | 154 | 109 | 20 | 17.1% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 5.24 | 4.40 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Enderson Mercado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.24 | 22.8% | 14.0% | 207 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.21 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.98 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.77 | 4.21 | 128 | 90 |
| Felix Carvallo L 2028 · 4.57 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.57 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.52 | 17.7% | 4.7% | 67 | -0.05 | 4.52 | 132 | 87 |
| Jacob Bresnahan L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.00 | 20.2% | 14.1% | 3.3% | .292 | 3.02 | 24.1% | 10.8% | 93 | -1.98 | 3.02 | 163 | 86 |
| Jesus Gomez L 2025 · 5.12 FIP | 18 | SW | 5.12 | 19.3% | 12.4% | 3.8% | .275 | 4.32 | 24.3% | 9.8% | 23 | -0.80 | 4.22 | 121 | 86 |
| Dax Fulton L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.49 | 18.6% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .311 | 3.80 | 22.8% | 12.3% | 151 | -0.69 | 3.31 | 346 | 86 |
| Evan Shawver L 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.28 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.49 | 4.09 | 219 | 85 |
| Jackson Humphries L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.39 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .302 | 6.34 | 19.3% | 0.0% | 176 | +1.95 | 4.39 | 233 | 85 |
| Anfernee Benitez L 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.76 | 18.1% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .383 | 3.90 | 17.8% | 1.5% | 71 | -0.86 | 3.82 | 137 | 85 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2029 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 83 |
| Sam Hentges L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.97 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 192 | -0.37 | 2.31 | 576 | 83 |
| Leo Crawford L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.74 | 16.6% | 7.3% | 2.0% | .266 | 3.90 | 15.8% | 8.5% | 372 | +0.16 | 2.05 | 567 | 83 |
| Avery Short L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.62 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .368 | 4.81 | 16.8% | 7.7% | 231 | +0.19 | 4.23 | 387 | 83 |
| Tomas Reyes L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.85 | 15.6% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.56 | 14.1% | 5.1% | 57 | +0.71 | 3.85 | 154 | 83 |
| Kyle Twomey L 2029 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.07 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.95 | 14.8% | 6.9% | 68 | -0.12 | 3.95 | 141 | 83 |
| Kenny Hernandez L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.99 | 15.3% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .330 | 3.17 | 15.2% | 6.2% | 96 | -0.82 | 3.17 | 424 | 83 |
| Packy Naughton L 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.45 | 17.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.61 | 15.9% | 10.0% | 311 | -0.84 | 2.95 | 504 | 82 |
| Kevin Garcia L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.39 | 14.8% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .302 | 4.00 | 19.9% | 8.8% | 80 | -0.39 | 3.11 | 196 | 82 |
| Pablo Aldonis L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.29 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .324 | 2.64 | 21.9% | 13.1% | 68 | -1.65 | 1.89 | 108 | 82 |
| Antonio Pujols L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.72 | 16.3% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .241 | 3.71 | 19.5% | 4.5% | 52 | -0.01 | 3.71 | 106 | 81 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2029 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.1 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.2 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.1 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.1 | $11M | +$8M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $8M | $55M | +$47M | ||