Enderson Mercado

P Wilson Warbirds

Age 20 LHP 5'11" / 177 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1161ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Brewers 2	11	8	42	5.95	2.34	26.3%	9.8%	—	K 17.9% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.63
2025	18	MIX2 levels	19	16	73	4.71	3.57	24.2%	8.8%	—	K 16.9% · BB 10.8% · FIP 4.84
2026	19	AMIL	26	10	96	8.13	5.08	17.4%	14.9%	—	K 12.8% · BB 17.6% · FIP 5.86
2027PROJ	20	MLBMIL	—	—	0	6.07	6.07	13.1%	16.3%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBMIL	5	5	32	5.79	5.67	15.1%	14.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBMIL	7	7	48	5.44	5.28	17.0%	12.4%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsSalvador Montano (age 21) · Gregory Reinoso (age 20) · Victor Payano (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132140vR 148

ERA6.07

FIP6.07

K%13.1%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%-3.1%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.2M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	11	8	42	194	51	19	1	73%	3.8	17.9%	12.2%	5.6%	0.9%	5.95	3.63	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	11	8	42	194	51	19	1	73%	3.8	17.9%	12.2%	5.6%	0.9%	5.95	3.63	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	11	8	42	194	51	19	1	73%	3.8	26.3%	9.8%	16.5%	0.5%	5.95	2.34	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	16	73	318	77	28	8	84%	3.8	16.9%	10.8%	6.1%	3.3%	4.71	4.84	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	16	73	318	77	28	8	84%	3.8	16.9%	10.8%	6.1%	3.3%	4.71	4.84	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	16	73	318	77	28	8	84%	3.8	24.2%	8.8%	15.4%	2.5%	4.71	3.57	—
2026	19	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	26	10	96	484	84	72	11	38%	3.7	12.8%	17.6%	-4.7%	3.0%	8.13	5.86	—
2026	19	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	26	10	96	484	84	72	11	38%	3.7	12.8%	17.6%	-4.7%	3.0%	8.13	5.86	—
2026	19	A RAW	Wilson Warbirds	26	10	96	484	84	72	11	38%	3.7	17.4%	14.9%	2.5%	2.3%	8.13	5.08	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.1%	16.3%	-3.1%	3.0%	6.07	6.07	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	65	276	42	39	8	100%	6.5	15.1%	14.1%	1.0%	2.9%	5.71	5.59	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	65	276	47	34	8	100%	6.5	17.0%	12.4%	4.5%	2.9%	5.36	5.20	+0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	65	276	50	31	8	100%	6.5	18.1%	11.3%	6.7%	2.8%	5.09	4.95	+0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	65	276	52	29	8	100%	6.5	18.7%	10.7%	8.1%	2.8%	4.90	4.79	+0.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	61	259	50	27	7	100%	6.8	19.1%	10.3%	8.8%	2.8%	4.78	4.70	+0.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	62	260	50	27	7	100%	6.8	19.3%	10.2%	9.1%	2.8%	4.72	4.68	+0.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	60	254	49	26	7	100%	6.7	19.3%	10.3%	9.0%	2.8%	4.72	4.72	+0.5
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	58	243	47	25	7	100%	7.2	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	2.9%	4.77	4.80	+0.4
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	54	228	43	24	7	100%	6.8	18.9%	10.7%	8.2%	3.1%	4.87	4.93	+0.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	50	209	39	23	7	100%	7.1	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	3.3%	5.01	5.11	+0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	32	135	20	19	4	100%	6.4	15.1%	14.1%	1.0%	3.1%	5.79	5.67	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	48	203	34	25	6	100%	6.9	17.0%	12.4%	4.5%	3.0%	5.44	5.28	+0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	55	232	42	26	7	100%	6.9	18.1%	11.3%	6.7%	3.0%	5.17	5.03	+0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	58	245	46	26	7	100%	7.2	18.7%	10.7%	8.1%	2.9%	4.98	4.87	+0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	56	236	45	24	7	100%	7.0	19.1%	10.3%	8.8%	2.9%	4.86	4.78	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	57	241	46	25	7	100%	7.1	19.3%	10.2%	9.1%	2.9%	4.80	4.76	+0.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	57	241	46	25	7	100%	7.1	19.3%	10.3%	9.0%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	+0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	55	232	45	24	7	100%	6.9	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	3.1%	4.85	4.88	+0.4
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	51	215	41	23	7	100%	7.3	18.9%	10.7%	8.2%	3.2%	4.95	5.01	+0.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	47	198	37	22	7	100%	6.7	18.6%	11.0%	7.6%	3.5%	5.10	5.20	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	76	517	2184	404	240	67	100%	6.8	18.5%	11.0%	7.5%	3.1%	5.03	4.61	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	156	93	26	100%	6.8	18.5%	11.0%	7.5%	3.1%	5.03	4.61	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		56	34	211	996	151	143	26	61%	3.8	15.1%	14.4%	0.7%	2.7%	6.52	5.10	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	32	200	943	142	135	25	61%	3.8	15.1%	14.4%	0.7%	2.7%	6.52	5.10	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AWilson Warbirds · 96 IPFIP 4.77 → 5.86 (+1.09)K% 17.4% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.36%	—	×0.740	12.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.88%	—	×1.180	17.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.95%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.77 → 5.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Brewers · 46 IPFIP 3.35 → 4.98 (+1.63)K% 27.1% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.09%	—	×0.680	18.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.36%	—	×1.250	11.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷0.971	×1.400	3.55%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 26 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.61 (+0.70)K% 19.1% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.13%	—	×0.740	14.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.83%	—	×1.180	9.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷1.214	×1.300	2.79%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Brewers 2 · 42 IPFIP 2.40 → 3.63 (+1.23)K% 26.3% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.29%	—	×0.680	17.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.79%	—	×1.250	12.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.52%	÷0.808	×1.400	0.89%

Result: FIP 2.40 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Enderson Mercado (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.07	13.1%	16.3%	3.0%	—	5.25	16.7%	4.1%	196	-0.82	—	—	—
Salvador Montano L 2015 · 5.23 FIP	21	SP-	5.23	11.5%	15.9%	2.0%	.301	4.65	21.3%	-0.0%	71	-0.58	4.44	116	88
Gregory Reinoso L 2016 · 5.11 FIP	20	SP-	5.11	12.3%	15.6%	1.9%	.299	6.70	11.3%	-7.8%	29	+1.59	4.18	105	83
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	81
Gabriel Agostini L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	13.5%	12.4%	2.9%	.246	5.63	9.5%	-16.8%	12	+0.49	1.97	122	79
McKenzie Mills L 2015 · 7.06 FIP	19	SP-	7.06	9.8%	21.4%	3.8%	.288	4.17	18.2%	11.0%	227	-2.89	4.12	334	78
Carlos Meza L 2021 · 5.03 FIP	20	SP-	5.03	15.5%	12.2%	3.1%	.325	4.67	20.6%	4.4%	138	-0.36	3.72	229	77
Wilgenis Alvarado L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	19	SP-	4.88	10.5%	11.0%	2.3%	.289	5.43	14.8%	-3.3%	80	+0.55	4.70	122	77
Miguel Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.58 FIP	20	SP-	5.58	14.3%	21.8%	1.7%	.240	4.24	14.9%	-4.1%	64	-1.34	3.91	103	76
Joseph Herrera L 2024 · 5.50 FIP	18	SW	5.50	13.0%	20.5%	1.6%	.325	5.55	13.6%	-4.1%	67	+0.05	4.67	105	76
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	76
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	76
Wander Cabrera L 2018 · 6.97 FIP	20	SP-	6.97	11.9%	16.7%	5.0%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	135	76
Brandon Herbold L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP-	6.27	17.2%	17.6%	4.3%	.296	5.06	19.8%	-3.9%	44	-1.21	3.72	105	75
Julio Mendez L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	19	SP-	5.34	14.0%	13.7%	3.1%	.302	4.05	21.3%	8.0%	202	-1.29	3.83	290	74
Lucas Gilbreath L 2017 · 5.60 FIP	21	SP	5.60	11.5%	17.8%	2.2%	.281	4.37	16.9%	7.4%	260	-1.23	3.17	431	74
Luis Cesar L 2024 · 6.24 FIP	20	SP	6.24	13.2%	19.8%	3.2%	.163	5.28	15.6%	-9.7%	44	-0.96	4.84	131	74
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	74
Josue Arias L 2024 · 6.86 FIP	19	SP	6.86	13.8%	28.1%	2.5%	.250	7.30	9.3%	-30.1%	13	+0.44	4.73	114	74
Roberth Fernandez L 2015 · 5.66 FIP	20	SW	5.66	11.4%	16.2%	2.7%	.356	4.92	14.7%	6.3%	60	-0.74	4.92	103	74
Marlin Willis L 2018 · 6.72 FIP	20	SW	6.72	10.7%	20.8%	3.4%	.331	4.51	23.4%	-0.9%	36	-2.21	3.15	201	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	60	17.8%	11.6%	1.13	5.10
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Scott Eyre ('09)	3.2	59	18.6%	11.5%	1.15	4.23
Doug Henry ('01)	3.3	61	18.6%	11.7%	1.12	4.19
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*