Merphy Hernandez

OF Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 20 L/L 5'11" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKMIN	54	.163/.333/.256	0	8	18	—	.109/.241/.174
2026	19	AMIN	242	.267/.364/.376	4	51	71	—	.226/.306/.313
2026	19	ROKMIN	36	.269/.472/.462	1	6	92	—	.207/.361/.379
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBMIN	388	.209/.282/.307	5	16	68	-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBMIN	115	.214/.289/.322	2	5	74	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBMIN	207	.218/.293/.333	4	9	78	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed97

Max EV63

K%60

Whiff%60

Z-Con%52

BB%38

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 86%

CompsCarlos Jorge (age 19) · Jonatan Clase (age 20) · Billy Hamilton (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 267 proj PA

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .280 / .304

PA267

HR4

SB11

K%26

BB%8

ISO98

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 34 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT34

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED80

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	190	156	43	4	6	2	28	30	3	36	2	276	396	417	812	141	323	16	15	362	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	54	43	7	2	1	0	8	13	3	8	5	163	333	256	589	93	233	24	15	289	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	242	210	56	7	2	4	25	57	7	51	11	267	364	376	740	110	349	24	10	339	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Twins	—	36	26	7	0	1	1	9	6	1	6	0	269	472	462	934	192	316	17	25	423	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	190	164	27	2	3	1	20	37	3	36	2	165	267	232	499	67	201	19	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	54	46	5	1	1	0	5	19	3	8	5	109	241	174	415	65	181	35	9	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	242	217	49	6	2	3	18	77	7	51	11	226	306	313	619	88	332	32	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	36	29	6	0	1	1	6	9	1	6	0	207	361	379	740	172	249	25	17	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	190	164	27	2	3	1	20	37	3	36	2	165	267	232	499	67	202	19	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	190	156	43	4	6	2	28	30	3	36	2	276	396	417	812	141	323	16	15	362	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	54	46	5	1	1	0	5	19	3	8	5	109	241	174	415	65	185	35	9	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	54	43	7	2	1	0	8	13	3	8	5	163	333	256	589	93	233	24	15	289	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	278	247	56	6	3	4	23	86	8	57	11	227	313	324	637	97	331	31	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	278	236	63	7	3	5	34	63	8	57	11	267	378	386	763	119	345	23	12	350	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	190	165	27	2	3	1	20	37	3	36	2	164	267	230	498	67	201	19	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	54	46	5	1	1	0	5	19	3	8	5	109	241	174	415	65	181	35	9	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	278	245	56	6	3	4	23	86	8	57	11	229	313	327	639	98	321	31	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	190	165	27	2	3	1	20	37	3	36	2	164	267	230	498	67	201	19	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	54	46	5	1	1	0	5	19	3	8	5	109	241	174	415	65	181	35	9	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	278	245	56	6	3	4	23	86	8	57	11	229	313	327	639	98	321	31	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	388	349	73	13	3	5	30	99	6	16	3	209	282	307	589	98	272	26	8	269	68	-15	+2	+0	-2	+8	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	335	301	64	11	2	6	26	84	5	14	3	214	288	322	610	108	274	25	8	277	74	-10	+2	+0	-2	+7	-0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	428	384	83	14	3	8	34	106	7	18	4	218	293	333	626	115	276	25	8	283	78	-11	+2	+0	-3	+9	-0.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	487	438	96	17	3	10	39	119	7	21	5	221	296	341	637	120	277	24	8	288	81	-11	+2	+0	-3	+11	-0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	526	470	104	18	3	11	43	127	8	22	5	223	298	347	645	124	279	24	8	291	83	-11	+2	+0	-3	+11	0.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIN	56%	548	490	110	19	4	12	45	132	8	23	5	224	300	351	651	127	280	24	8	293	85	-10	+3	+0	-3	+12	0.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIN	56%	559	500	113	20	4	12	46	135	8	23	5	224	300	351	650	126	279	24	8	293	84	-10	+3	+0	-3	+12	0.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	562	503	113	20	4	12	46	136	8	23	5	223	299	348	646	125	279	24	8	292	83	-11	+3	+0	-3	+12	0.0
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	558	499	110	19	3	12	46	136	8	20	5	221	297	343	640	122	278	24	8	289	82	-12	+2	-1	-3	+12	-0.2
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	549	491	108	19	3	11	45	136	8	17	4	219	294	337	630	118	276	25	8	285	79	-14	+2	-1	-3	+12	-0.5
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	115	103	23	4	1	2	9	29	2	5	1	214	289	322	611	109	274	25	8	277	74	-4	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	207	185	40	7	1	4	17	51	3	9	2	218	293	333	626	116	276	25	8	283	78	-5	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	264	237	52	9	2	5	21	64	4	11	3	221	296	341	637	121	277	24	8	288	81	-6	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	292	262	58	10	2	6	24	71	4	12	3	223	298	347	646	124	279	24	8	291	83	-6	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIN	56%	307	274	62	11	2	7	25	74	5	13	3	225	300	352	651	127	280	24	8	293	85	-6	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIN	56%	314	280	63	11	2	7	26	76	5	13	3	224	300	351	651	127	279	24	8	293	84	-6	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	311	278	63	11	2	7	26	75	4	13	3	223	299	348	647	125	279	24	8	292	83	-6	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.0
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	306	274	61	11	2	6	25	75	4	11	3	221	297	344	640	122	278	25	8	289	82	-7	+1	-0	-2	+7	-0.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	293	263	58	10	2	6	24	72	4	9	2	219	294	337	631	118	276	25	8	285	79	-7	+1	-1	-2	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2409	2156	480	84	16	50	197	587	35	96	23	223	298	346	644	123	281	24	8	289	78	-53	+10	-1	-14	+52	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	129	23	4	13	53	158	9	26	6	222	297	342	639	120	280	24	8	289	78	-14	+3	-0	-4	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5341	4773	1040	175	38	103	439	1321	85	293	61	218	295	335	630	117	277	25	8	284	78	-111	+21	-2	-29	+104	-1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	127	21	5	13	53	161	10	36	7	219	295	339	634	120	278	25	8	284	78	-15	+3	-0	-4	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Jake Powell'30-'45 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,767 PA	4.2	2,767	22	65	248*	294*	373*	-14	-2	0.2	2.0
/162	664	5	16	-3.3	-0.5	0.0	pk7: 4
#4Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	2.9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.6
/162	664	4	56	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.0	2,676	53	108	221	293	341	-16	+0	0.8	1.0
/162	664	13	27	-4.0	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 1
#5Greg Briley'88-'93 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,670 PA	2.5	1,670	29	65	251*	309*	399*	-17	-4	0.9	0.9
/162	664	12	26	-6.8	-1.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Eric Owens'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,576 PA	3.9	2,576	26	126	253*	303*	334*	-18	+1	-0.9	0.4
/162	664	7	32	-4.5	+0.2	-0.2	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Merphy Hernandez (OGILVIE)	20	29→34	35→40	80	53	207/280/304	97	272	4	11	26%	8%	68	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Jorge 2023 · A	19	42→52	46→45	63→60	47	208/291/343	136	289	12	30	31%	9%	81	-0.1	208/277/327	119	299	11	25	32%	8%	71	-0.8	221/282/318	97	305	9	33	29%	7%	67	-0.8
✕Jonatan Clase 2022 · A	20	43→48	40→50	59→65	47	205/283/296	91	289	7	26	30%	9%	66	-1.1	211/287/356	145	315	14	39	35%	9%	82	-0.0	210/288/361	151	303	15	47	33%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Billy Hamilton 2011 · A	20	44→54	37→40	62→70	39	206/251/284	77	291	3	28	29%	5%	50	-2.3	240/292/314	74	335	3	63	27%	7%	72	-0.7	252/305/341	89	324	4	80	22%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Tyler James 2018 · A	21	44	36→30	64→65	42	203/264/279	76	291	2	27	29%	7%	55	-2.0	217/280/291	74	327	4	27	32%	7%	63	-1.3	224/290/283	58	344	4	45	33%	7%	61	-0.6
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	47	40→45	60→65	53	222/313/322	100	267	5	29	18%	9%	84	+0.1	234/309/354	120	293	11	18	23%	8%	90	+0.6	231/312/342	111	292	7	11	21%	9%	84	+0.0
✕Ty Morrison 2011 · A	21	45→54	40	63→55	38	211/268/312	101	323	6	28	35%	6%	63	-1.3	233/281/314	81	331	3	22	29%	5%	69	-0.9	248/295/320	72	341	1	23	26%	4%	71	-0.6
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2016 · A	20	50	39→45	60→65	52	228/315/331	103	312	4	16	26%	10%	86	+0.3	205/273/295	90	330	6	26	36%	7%	62	-1.4	220/296/327	107	310	12	41	30%	9%	75	-0.2
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→51	39→45	59→55	46	195/272/287	91	280	4	17	30%	9%	60	-1.6	220/296/307	87	294	6	17	25%	9%	74	-0.6	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Jay Allen II 2023 · A	20	44→47	40→45	60→55	44	207/294/300	93	300	7	32	30%	8%	72	-0.7	192/283/280	88	280	8	28	32%	8%	64	-1.3	202/286/304	103	275	11	24	29%	7%	68	-0.8
✕Jorge Mateo 2016 · A	21	46→50	38→50	67→65	42	219/269/307	88	300	3	44	27%	6%	63	-1.4	207/252/319	112	299	7	32	32%	5%	59	-1.7	217/266/353	136	277	13	42	26%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	39→33	39→55	59→50	45	191/248/281	90	242	5	22	23%	6%	49	-2.4	195/243/347	152	271	18	8	34%	5%	63	-1.3	192/268/358	166	237	23	7	30%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Wes Rogers 2016 · A	22	47→51	39→40	65	44	225/283/314	88	297	6	35	25%	6%	70	-0.9	223/278/313	90	298	6	34	25%	6%	68	-1.0	218/272/304	87	291	6	36	26%	6%	61	-1.2
✕Delino DeShields 2013 · A	20	47→56	42→45	61→65	45	227/292/330	103	308	9	36	28%	8%	77	-0.3	238/310/344	106	319	7	37	26%	8%	87	+0.4	239/317/344	105	318	6	38	24%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Forrest Wall 2016 · A	20	48→55	42→45	58→70	46	229/285/342	114	291	8	18	24%	7%	77	-0.3	223/277/319	96	299	8	18	26%	6%	69	-0.9	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Yhoswar Garcia 2023 · A	21	42	38→30	63→70	39	197/261/279	82	301	5	38	34%	6%	54	-2.0	204/255/271	67	276	3	38	26%	5%	49	-2.4	200/248/252	52	262	1	51	23%	5%	40	-1.4
✕Johan Rojas 2023 · AA	22	44→54	41→45	63→65	42	216/263/320	104	271	8	35	23%	5%	63	-1.3	248/290/352	104	312	8	37	22%	5%	81	-0.1	260/302/359	100	326	7	41	21%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	41→40	37→40	61→60	53	189/277/271	82	239	2	21	21%	10%	59	-1.7	193/264/265	72	284	2	16	30%	8%	52	-2.2	211/282/288	76	323	2	26	32%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Cameron Cauley 2023 · A	20	40→48	37→50	60	39	187/249/260	73	305	4	28	38%	7%	45	-2.7	196/252/317	121	310	12	26	38%	7%	59	-1.6	212/268/359	147	288	15	31	31%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Jett Williams 2024 · AA	20	44→48	45→50	60→55	54	209/324/338	129	296	11	25	30%	12%	93	+0.8	216/310/345	129	299	10	23	28%	11%	88	+0.4	214/300/348	134	288	11	26	27%	10%	82	+0.0
✕Taylor Trammell 2018 · A	20	46→48	42→55	57→55	44	221/281/328	107	312	8	21	30%	8%	72	-0.7	211/286/306	95	305	8	18	31%	9%	70	-0.8	213/300/386	173	283	21	17	31%	10%	93	+0.5

Merphy Hernandez

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps