Cesar Hernandez — OGILVIE

Cesar HernandezOF Asheville Tourists

Age 23 L/L 6'0" / 195 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION171 act + 22 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .227 / .238

PA22

HR0

K%27

BB%5

BABIP292

ISO48

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	382	335	77	15	2	2	30	85	12	34	7	230	316	304	620	75	296	22	8	285	79	-10	+4	—	—	+8	0.3
2025	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	274	227	53	7	1	9	36	56	6	24	11	233	353	392	745	159	263	20	13	334	112	+4	+0	—	—	+6	1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	382	347	65	11	2	2	18	118	12	34	7	187	252	248	500	61	262	31	5	221	36	-29	+4	—	—	+8	-1.7
2025	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	274	242	49	6	1	8	21	80	6	24	11	202	283	335	617	132	245	29	8	269	68	-10	+0	—	—	+6	-0.4
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	382	347	65	11	2	2	18	118	12	34	7	187	252	248	500	61	272	31	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	382	335	77	15	2	2	30	85	12	34	7	230	316	304	620	75	296	22	8	285	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	274	242	49	6	1	8	21	80	6	24	11	202	283	335	617	132	258	29	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	274	227	53	7	1	9	36	56	6	24	11	233	353	392	745	159	263	20	13	334	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	382	349	65	11	2	2	18	118	12	34	7	186	252	246	498	60	262	31	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	274	245	49	6	1	8	21	80	6	24	11	200	283	331	613	131	245	29	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	382	349	65	11	2	2	18	118	12	34	7	186	252	246	498	60	262	31	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	274	245	49	6	1	8	21	80	6	24	11	200	283	331	613	131	245	29	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	HOU	—	171	155	37	5	1	2	12	53	2	11	5	239	302	323	624	84	343	31	7	282	77	-5	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	ROK RAW	HOU	—	21	18	4	0	0	1	3	4	0	2	0	222	333	389	722	167	231	19	14	328	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ RAW	HOU	—	150	130	38	6	1	2	16	35	2	9	5	292	378	400	778	108	379	23	11	349	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	HOU	0%	22	21	4	1	0	0	1	6	0	1	0	190	227	238	465	48	290	27	5	267	67	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	A+ MLE	HOU	—	193	176	41	6	1	2	13	59	2	12	5	233	293	312	606	80	333	31	7	280	76	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	30%	305	276	60	9	1	6	21	85	5	10	4	217	285	322	607	105	291	28	7	277	74	-10	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	44%	370	335	75	12	2	8	26	101	6	11	4	224	292	343	635	119	291	27	7	283	77	-10	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	51%	412	372	83	13	2	9	30	111	7	12	5	223	293	341	635	118	291	27	7	286	79	-10	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	430	388	87	14	2	9	32	116	7	12	5	224	295	340	635	116	291	27	7	287	80	-10	+0	+0	-3	+9	-0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	439	396	88	14	2	9	33	119	7	11	4	222	294	336	629	114	290	27	8	286	79	-11	+1	-1	-3	+10	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	30%	92	84	18	3	0	2	6	26	2	3	1	214	283	321	604	107	293	28	7	265	74	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	44%	164	148	33	5	1	3	12	45	3	5	2	223	294	331	626	108	293	27	7	271	77	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	51%	209	189	42	7	1	4	15	56	3	6	2	222	290	333	623	111	293	27	7	274	79	-5	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	225	202	45	7	1	5	17	61	4	6	2	223	296	342	638	119	293	27	8	275	80	-5	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	234	210	48	8	1	5	18	63	4	6	2	229	302	348	649	119	292	27	8	274	79	-6	+0	-0	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	924	833	186	30	4	19	68	251	16	26	9	223	294	337	632	114	295	27	7	273	71	-23	+2	-0	-6	+20	-0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	131	21	3	13	48	177	11	18	6	224	295	336	631	113	296	27	7	273	71	-16	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2634	2377	511	80	12	51	182	736	50	115	40	215	285	323	608	108	286	28	7	273	71	-51	+3	-1	-12	+43	-1.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	127	20	3	13	45	182	12	28	10	216	286	327	613	111	287	28	7	273	71	-17	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Hernán Pérezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,811 PA	2.7	1,811	45	69	252	281	387	-0	+12	3.7	3.7
/162	664	16	25	-0.0	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.4	926	19	27	223	290	339	-6	+0	-0.2	-0.1
/162	664	14	19	-4.0	+0.0	-0.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cesar Hernandez (OGILVIE)	23	35	40	60	50	211/277/303	92	290	4	12	29%	7%	67	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	45→40	55→50	46	202/283/328	125	257	12	15	26%	8%	75	-0.5	216/303/308	92	269	8	14	21%	9%	78	-0.3	215/312/285	70	264	6	15	19%	9%	74	-0.3
✕Chris Grayson 2013 · A	23	40→38	43→45	56→50	42	200/263/314	115	273	9	20	29%	7%	63	-1.4	197/262/295	98	268	7	15	28%	7%	58	-1.7	187/254/275	87	252	6	15	27%	7%	49	-1.6
✕Michael Siani 2022 · A	23	38→45	39→40	55→60	42	185/255/269	84	272	7	25	33%	8%	50	-2.3	206/277/304	98	273	9	30	26%	8%	65	-1.2	207/279/299	92	270	8	33	25%	8%	63	-1.1
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→45	41→50	51→40	45	197/267/298	101	259	8	11	26%	7%	61	-1.5	220/278/357	137	292	15	6	29%	6%	79	-0.2	222/283/366	144	287	17	3	28%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Tyler Callihan 2023 · A	23	43→41	43→45	53→55	41	211/260/321	109	279	10	14	28%	6%	63	-1.4	215/272/326	111	306	10	21	31%	7%	69	-0.9	206/274/320	114	295	13	23	33%	8%	66	-0.6
✕Brian O'Grady 2016 · A	24	39→38	43→55	54→50	48	196/273/312	116	263	10	14	28%	9%	67	-1.1	193/273/316	123	270	11	13	31%	9%	68	-1.0	208/271/384	177	275	20	15	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Cam Gibson 2017 · A	23	37→41	41→45	53→55	40	183/242/278	94	269	8	17	34%	7%	47	-2.6	198/260/312	114	273	10	17	29%	7%	61	-1.5	194/259/307	113	262	9	19	28%	7%	58	-1.3
✕Chris Pieters 2018 · A	23	45	40→45	51→55	44	215/280/315	101	289	7	13	27%	7%	69	-0.9	208/260/300	92	298	6	11	30%	6%	58	-1.7	173/207/222	50	261	0	15	32%	4%	18	-0.8
✕Cody Rogers 2012 · A	23	39→41	44→45	56→50	41	195/256/313	117	263	11	16	29%	6%	60	-1.6	203/262/296	93	297	7	16	32%	6%	58	-1.7	193/253/268	75	294	4	19	34%	6%	47	-1.8
✕Ramiro Rodriguez 2021 · AA	23	43	40	51→50	49	206/287/303	97	281	7	18	28%	9%	70	-0.9	201/263/300	99	311	9	11	36%	7%	60	-1.6	148/212/219	71	239	8	8	39%	6%	19	-1.1
✕Taylor Lewis 2013 · A	23	43	41→45	58→55	40	211/259/314	102	287	8	19	28%	6%	61	-1.5	192/235/283	91	293	5	18	34%	5%	45	-2.7	172/212/258	86	273	3	21	36%	4%	28	-1.7
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	35→45	44→45	52→60	39	184/241/293	109	256	12	21	32%	6%	50	-2.3	221/288/352	131	295	12	39	28%	8%	81	-0.1	221/289/349	127	292	11	41	26%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2019 · A	23	43	41→45	59→65	38	199/265/302	103	328	9	30	39%	7%	61	-1.5	189/252/286	97	313	10	26	40%	7%	53	-2.1	229/304/333	104	308	11	52	28%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Jason Christian 2010 · A	23	45	41→40	57→55	45	221/276/319	98	289	9	19	26%	7%	68	-1.0	212/261/298	86	300	7	14	30%	6%	57	-1.8	205/253/273	69	294	5	12	30%	6%	48	-1.1
✕Juan Silva 2014 · A	23	46	42→45	51→55	48	222/297/329	107	304	9	21	28%	9%	79	-0.2	224/300/316	92	297	6	22	24%	10%	77	-0.3	221/301/302	81	289	4	24	23%	10%	72	-0.3
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	39→45	58→55	46	205/275/296	91	274	6	17	26%	8%	63	-1.3	223/300/306	83	296	5	16	24%	9%	75	-0.5	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕Willie Abreu 2018 · A	23	45→46	44→45	57→55	39	225/256/349	124	282	10	22	24%	4%	68	-1.0	211/253/310	99	295	8	19	30%	5%	57	-1.8	195/242/288	94	281	9	17	33%	5%	46	-1.0
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	47→50	58→55	46	200/276/339	139	268	15	19	30%	9%	74	-0.5	213/284/345	132	280	14	17	28%	8%	78	-0.3	213/282/342	129	276	14	17	27%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Matt Rudick 2022 · A	24	45→42	39→45	56→50	49	217/284/308	92	271	6	11	22%	8%	69	-0.9	210/297/315	105	263	8	14	22%	9%	76	-0.4	205/296/315	110	257	9	15	22%	9%	74	-0.4
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	44	221/288/339	118	278	11	16	24%	6%	78	-0.3	214/270/297	83	283	6	12	25%	6%	61	-1.5	205/257/264	59	274	3	10	25%	6%	46	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps