Brian Fernandez — OGILVIE

Brian Fernandez P DSL Colorado

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 176 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 9 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%21.4%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	7	0	7	38	5	8	1	0%	1.0	13.2%	21.1%	-7.9%	2.6%	11.05	6.10	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	7	0	7	38	5	8	1	0%	1.0	13.2%	21.1%	-7.9%	2.6%	11.05	6.10	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	7	0	7	38	5	8	1	0%	1.0	13.2%	21.1%	-7.9%	2.6%	11.05	6.78	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	12	0	16	76	9	8	0	0%	1.3	8.1%	13.2%	-5.1%	0.0%	6.89	4.09	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	12	0	16	76	9	8	0	0%	1.3	8.1%	13.2%	-5.1%	0.0%	6.89	4.09	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	12	0	16	76	9	8	0	0%	1.3	11.8%	10.5%	1.3%	0.0%	6.89	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	—	9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	19	0	20	84	19	9	2	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.2%	11.8%	2.9%	4.57	4.51	+0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	10	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	10.2%	11.8%	2.9%	4.57	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.2%	11.8%	2.9%	4.57	4.13	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	81	20	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.2%	11.8%	2.9%	4.57	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		19	0	23	114	11	18	1	0%	1.2	9.8%	15.8%	-6.0%	0.9%	8.22	4.76	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	0	200	991	97	157	9	0%	1.2	9.8%	15.8%	-6.0%	0.9%	8.22	4.76	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brian Fernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	21.4%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.51	22.0%	11.8%	20	-0.18	—	—	—
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	89
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	88
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	87
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	87
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	87
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	87
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	86
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	85
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	85
Cam Bedrosian R 2014 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	21.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.350	2.72	26.8%	17.8%	154	-1.22	1.79	363	85
Kendeglys Virguez R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	20	SU	4.45	22.5%	10.8%	3.4%	.260	4.10	23.8%	8.8%	41	-0.35	4.10	142	85
Andrew Bash R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	18.0%	9.2%	2.1%	.273	4.21	14.9%	4.8%	146	+0.34	3.46	483	84
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	84
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	84
Augusto Calderon R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	20	SU	4.24	21.2%	12.6%	2.4%	.226	4.35	18.2%	5.9%	126	+0.11	3.58	208	84
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	84
Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2023 · 3.57 FIP	20	SU	3.57	23.5%	13.2%	1.4%	.286	4.64	18.0%	7.8%	180	+1.07	3.57	204	84
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	84
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	84
Enmanuel Marcano R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	20	SU	4.32	21.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	138	84