Erlin Aguero prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Erlin Aguero P DSL Rojos

Age 21 RHP 5'10" / 154 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%20.5%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	1	22	103	10	16	1	8%	1.7	6.6%	19.4%	-12.8%	1.4%	3.74	5.75	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	1	22	103	10	16	1	8%	1.7	6.6%	19.4%	-12.8%	1.4%	3.74	5.75	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	13	1	22	103	10	16	1	8%	1.7	9.7%	15.5%	-5.8%	1.0%	3.74	4.99	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	14.5%	6.0%	3.0%	5.22	5.22	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	—	20	0	20	87	19	11	3	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.6%	9.2%	2.9%	4.96	4.84	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	—	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.6%	9.2%	2.9%	4.96	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	12.6%	9.2%	2.9%	4.96	4.46	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	99	20	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.6%	9.2%	2.9%	4.96	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		13	1	22	103	7	20	1	8%	1.7	6.6%	19.4%	-12.8%	1.4%	3.74	5.75	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	9	200	951	63	185	13	8%	1.7	6.6%	19.4%	-12.8%	1.4%	3.74	5.75	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erlin Aguero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	20.5%	14.5%	3.0%	—	4.84	21.8%	9.2%	20	-0.38	—	—	—
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	89
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	88
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	87
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	87
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	87
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	87
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	87
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	86
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	86
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	86
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	86
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	85
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	85
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	85
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	476	84
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	525	84
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	84
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	84