Justin Capellan — OGILVIE

Justin CapellanC FCL Yankees

Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION173 act + 17 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .235 / .250

PA17

HR0

K%29

BB%6

BABIP260

ISO62

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	156	128	31	12	0	1	17	33	9	11	2	242	370	359	730	117	312	21	11	335	113	+2	+1	—	—	+3	0.7
2025	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	186	149	38	10	0	6	26	34	7	16	4	255	390	443	833	188	283	18	14	368	135	+8	+2	—	—	+4	1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	156	135	21	8	0	0	10	47	9	11	2	156	260	215	475	59	226	30	6	222	36	-12	+1	—	—	+3	-0.7
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	186	160	27	7	0	4	15	49	7	16	4	169	269	287	557	119	200	26	8	251	56	-10	+2	—	—	+4	-0.4
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	156	135	21	8	0	0	10	47	9	11	2	156	260	215	475	59	233	30	6	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	156	128	31	12	0	1	17	33	9	11	2	242	370	359	730	117	312	21	11	335	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	186	160	27	7	0	4	15	49	7	16	4	169	269	287	557	119	207	26	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	—	186	149	38	10	0	6	26	34	7	16	4	255	390	443	833	188	283	18	14	368	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	156	136	21	8	0	0	10	47	9	11	2	154	260	213	473	59	226	30	6	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	186	162	27	7	0	4	15	49	7	16	4	167	269	284	553	117	200	26	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	156	136	21	8	0	0	10	47	9	11	2	154	260	213	473	59	226	30	6	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	186	162	27	7	0	4	15	49	7	16	4	167	269	284	553	117	200	26	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	NYY	—	173	159	23	7	1	3	7	62	7	5	5	145	214	258	472	113	213	36	4	201	22	-16	-1	+0	+3	+4	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	NYY	—	173	154	34	12	1	4	12	43	7	5	5	221	306	390	696	169	280	25	7	314	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	ROK MLE	NYY	0%	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	188	235	250	485	62	259	29	6	253	58	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	ROK MLE	NYY	—	190	175	26	8	1	3	8	67	7	5	5	149	216	257	473	109	219	35	4	206	25	-17	-1	+0	+3	+4	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	236	214	43	10	1	5	15	68	5	5	2	201	269	327	596	126	261	29	6	263	64	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	354	320	66	15	2	8	24	99	7	8	3	206	276	341	617	134	264	28	7	271	70	-13	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	432	392	81	18	2	10	29	119	8	10	4	207	275	339	614	133	267	28	7	276	73	-14	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	484	439	90	20	2	11	33	132	9	12	5	205	274	335	609	130	268	27	7	279	75	-14	+0	+0	+9	+10	0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	514	463	97	21	3	12	36	140	10	12	5	210	281	346	627	136	268	27	7	280	76	-15	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	520	469	99	22	3	12	36	142	10	13	5	211	282	348	629	136	268	27	7	280	76	-15	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	520	468	96	21	2	12	37	142	10	13	5	205	278	335	613	130	268	27	7	280	76	-15	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	520	468	96	21	2	12	37	143	10	12	5	205	278	335	613	130	267	28	7	279	75	-15	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	NYY	58%	520	467	96	21	2	12	38	144	10	12	5	206	280	336	616	131	266	28	7	278	74	-16	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	NYY	60%	519	466	95	21	2	12	38	145	10	12	5	204	278	335	613	131	265	28	7	275	72	-17	+0	-2	+9	+11	0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	81	74	14	3	0	2	5	23	2	2	1	189	259	311	570	122	263	28	6	251	64	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	172	156	32	7	1	4	11	48	3	4	2	205	271	340	610	135	266	28	6	260	70	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	234	211	44	10	1	6	16	65	5	5	2	209	280	351	631	142	269	28	7	266	73	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	268	243	51	11	1	7	18	73	5	6	3	210	278	350	628	140	270	27	7	269	75	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	288	260	54	12	1	7	20	79	6	7	3	208	280	342	622	135	270	27	7	270	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	292	264	55	12	1	7	20	80	6	7	3	208	279	341	620	133	270	27	7	270	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	288	260	54	12	1	7	20	79	6	7	3	208	280	342	622	135	270	27	7	270	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	285	257	53	12	1	7	20	78	6	7	3	206	279	342	622	136	269	27	7	269	75	-8	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	NYY	58%	302	271	56	13	1	7	22	84	6	7	3	207	281	339	620	133	268	28	7	267	74	-9	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	NYY	60%	313	281	57	13	1	7	23	87	6	7	3	203	277	331	608	128	267	28	7	265	72	-10	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2523	2277	470	105	9	61	175	696	51	59	26	206	278	341	619	134	267	28	7	267	72	-78	+1	-2	+45	+55	2.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	121	27	2	16	45	179	13	15	7	206	278	341	618	135	266	28	7	267	72	-20	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4978	4477	910	206	21	110	349	1375	105	136	50	203	277	332	609	129	265	28	7	274	72	-145	+4	-4	+83	+100	3.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	119	27	3	14	46	180	14	18	7	203	278	332	610	128	266	28	7	274	72	-20	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.0	2,679	60	62	207	276	339	+48	+24	4.2	3.8
/162	664	15	15	+11.9	+5.9	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Capellan (OGILVIE)	20	40	45	60	50	188/256/296	109	259	3	4	30%	6%	58	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→44	41→45	56→55	44	216/286/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	206/315/327	121	297	9	23	30%	12%	86	+0.3	203/309/335	132	285	10	26	29%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	43	42→45	53→55	49	209/289/317	108	255	9	14	21%	8%	74	-0.5	227/292/341	114	308	10	10	28%	6%	80	-0.1	222/278/328	106	295	10	8	27%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Evan Van Hoosier 2015 · A	21	46→47	44→50	56→50	44	227/279/354	127	284	10	10	23%	6%	78	-0.3	229/273/336	107	306	6	9	26%	5%	70	-0.8	232/274/341	110	322	5	10	28%	4%	70	-0.3
✕Jeferson Quero 2023 · A	20	46→45	44→50	49→45	41	225/274/342	117	290	12	9	26%	6%	73	-0.6	226/282/358	132	276	15	7	23%	7%	80	-0.1	215/277/344	129	257	16	4	23%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Adan Velazquez 2010 · A	20	44→52	43→45	54→50	43	215/277/331	116	278	9	11	25%	6%	72	-0.7	207/259/299	92	291	6	10	29%	5%	58	-1.7	232/277/328	96	293	7	7	23%	5%	68	-0.4
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	46→48	42→50	56→50	42	223/275/338	115	301	9	15	28%	6%	72	-0.7	214/270/329	115	284	10	12	27%	6%	69	-0.9	226/275/366	139	277	16	14	24%	5%	77	-0.3
✕Bryan Rincon 2023 · A	19	42→44	45	53→55	45	210/278/331	121	275	12	11	28%	8%	73	-0.6	192/286/292	100	274	9	22	30%	11%	68	-1.0	183/281/318	135	255	15	31	32%	11%	70	-0.5
✕Jeter Downs 2019 · A	21	41→40	43→50	52→55	43	204/269/311	107	264	11	18	26%	6%	65	-1.2	205/270/351	146	270	17	18	29%	7%	75	-0.5	171/263/306	134	238	15	26	33%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Jorge Vega-Rosado 2012 · A	20	47	41→45	55	41	224/275/324	100	304	8	19	28%	6%	69	-0.9	205/261/286	81	310	6	14	33%	6%	55	-1.9	175/234/232	57	275	4	15	36%	6%	31	-1.4
✕Jared Serna 2023 · A	21	41→48	43→45	54→50	49	203/292/313	110	263	10	21	26%	9%	75	-0.5	220/278/337	117	273	11	15	23%	6%	74	-0.6	216/272/322	106	264	10	16	22%	6%	65	-1.1
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→40	40→45	57→60	43	221/278/318	97	302	7	17	28%	7%	69	-0.9	212/274/310	98	290	7	22	27%	7%	65	-1.2	203/265/310	108	257	10	33	24%	7%	60	-0.9
✕Kenedy Corona 2021 · A	21	45→42	42→50	53→55	46	220/282/327	107	269	8	14	21%	6%	73	-0.6	210/266/328	118	295	12	21	31%	6%	68	-1.0	203/262/336	133	281	15	26	32%	6%	65	-0.8
✕Yu Chang 2015 · A	19	48→44	45→50	53→45	44	237/291/367	130	295	12	8	24%	6%	85	+0.2	198/251/325	127	276	12	7	32%	6%	61	-1.5	212/267/370	158	271	20	6	29%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	42	40→45	54→60	47	195/295/296	102	308	7	8	35%	10%	72	-0.7	202/299/283	81	274	6	17	26%	10%	71	-0.8	180/307/230	50	224	5	30	19%	12%	61	-0.5
✕Jose Ramos 2023 · A	20	41	41→40	57→55	48	202/276/307	105	263	8	20	26%	8%	66	-1.1	187/267/266	79	277	4	22	31%	8%	54	-2.0	193/287/265	72	281	6	28	30%	11%	59	-0.6
✕Christian Lopes 2013 · A	20	42→51	42→45	53→50	42	207/256/324	117	265	8	8	25%	5%	62	-1.4	207/261/285	78	263	4	4	22%	6%	55	-2.0	214/297/334	120	267	12	13	23%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Jorge Alcantara 2012 · A	20	45	40→45	52→50	42	210/275/309	99	310	7	12	33%	7%	66	-1.1	192/263/287	95	292	7	14	34%	8%	57	-1.8	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	33	-1.0
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2016 · A	21	42	46→50	53→40	46	204/288/342	137	301	13	8	34%	9%	80	-0.2	198/259/320	122	275	14	4	32%	7%	63	-1.4	189/248/298	109	256	13	1	31%	6%	52	-0.8
✕Jonathan Galvez 2010 · A	19	44→48	42→45	50→55	49	212/297/322	110	288	9	12	28%	10%	78	-0.3	220/281/338	118	321	11	16	33%	7%	75	-0.5	235/283/350	115	329	10	23	30%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Christian Cerda 2023 · A	20	41→37	39→45	50→40	51	195/281/288	93	256	6	9	25%	10%	65	-1.2	193/287/297	104	256	11	4	27%	11%	69	-0.9	180/276/283	102	231	12	2	26%	11%	61	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps