Justin Capellan — OGILVIE

Justin CapellanC FCL Yankees

Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION156 act + 104 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .262 / .319

PA104

HR2

K%31

BB%6

BABIP262

ISO128

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.8M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	156	135	20	7	0	0	10	47	9	11	2	148	253	200	453	52	222	30	6	217	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	156	128	31	12	0	1	17	33	9	11	2	242	370	359	730	117	312	21	11	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	186	161	25	6	0	4	14	50	7	16	4	155	253	267	520	112	189	27	8	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	186	149	38	10	0	6	26	34	7	16	4	255	390	443	833	188	283	18	14	368	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	NYY	—	156	142	20	6	1	3	7	59	7	5	5	141	218	261	479	120	212	38	4	204	14	-15	-1	+0	+3	+4	-0.9
YTD	20	ROK	NYY	—	156	137	30	10	1	4	12	41	7	5	5	219	314	394	708	175	283	26	8	320	103	+0	-1	+0	+3	+4	0.7
ROS	20	ROK	NYY	0%	104	94	18	4	1	2	6	32	3	3	1	191	262	319	581	128	260	31	6	253	52	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
ROS	20	MLB	NYY	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		262	—	—	237	40	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	NYY	—	156	143	20	6	1	3	7	59	7	5	5	140	218	259	477	119	210	38	4	204	14	-15	-1	+0	+3	+4	-0.9
TOT	20	ROK	NYY	—	260	236	38	10	2	5	13	91	10	8	6	161	236	284	519	123	234	35	5	224	29	-21	-1	+0	+5	+7	-1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	NYY	34%	279	253	49	11	1	5	18	83	6	6	2	194	264	304	568	111	263	30	6	263	59	-13	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.0
2028	22	MLB	NYY	48%	385	348	70	15	2	8	26	111	8	9	4	201	272	325	597	124	267	29	7	271	65	-15	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.3
2029	23	MLB	NYY	54%	454	410	83	18	2	10	32	129	9	11	4	202	275	329	604	127	269	28	7	276	69	-16	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.6
2030	24	MLB	NYY	55%	499	451	94	20	3	12	35	140	10	12	5	208	280	346	626	137	270	28	7	279	72	-16	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.8
2031	25	MLB	NYY	56%	520	468	98	21	3	12	37	146	10	13	5	209	282	344	626	135	270	28	7	280	72	-16	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.9
2032	26	MLB	NYY	56%	520	468	97	21	3	12	37	146	10	13	5	207	280	342	621	135	270	28	7	280	73	-16	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.9
2033	27	MLB	NYY	55%	520	467	97	21	3	12	38	146	10	13	5	208	282	343	624	135	270	28	7	280	73	-16	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.9
2034	28	MLB	NYY	55%	520	467	96	21	2	12	38	147	10	12	5	206	280	336	616	131	269	28	7	279	72	-17	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.7
2035	29	MLB	NYY	58%	520	467	96	21	2	12	38	148	10	12	5	206	280	336	616	131	268	28	7	277	70	-17	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.6
2036	30	MLB	NYY	60%	520	467	94	20	2	12	38	149	10	12	5	201	276	330	605	128	267	29	7	274	68	-19	+0	-2	+9	+15	0.4
2027	21	MLB	NYY	34%	96	88	17	4	0	2	6	28	2	2	1	193	260	307	567	114	265	29	6	249	49	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	NYY	48%	187	168	35	8	1	4	13	54	4	4	2	208	281	339	620	131	268	29	7	258	56	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
2029	23	MLB	NYY	54%	246	222	46	10	1	6	17	70	5	6	2	207	279	342	621	135	271	28	7	264	60	-11	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2030	24	MLB	NYY	55%	277	249	52	11	1	7	20	78	6	7	3	209	284	345	629	137	272	28	7	267	62	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2031	25	MLB	NYY	56%	291	262	54	12	1	7	21	82	6	7	3	206	280	340	620	134	272	28	7	268	63	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2032	26	MLB	NYY	56%	292	263	54	12	1	7	21	82	6	7	3	205	279	338	618	133	272	28	7	268	63	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2033	27	MLB	NYY	55%	288	259	54	12	1	7	21	81	6	7	3	208	283	344	627	135	272	28	7	268	63	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2034	28	MLB	NYY	55%	285	256	53	12	1	7	21	81	6	7	3	207	283	344	626	137	271	28	7	267	63	-12	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.1
2035	29	MLB	NYY	58%	302	271	55	12	1	7	22	86	6	7	3	203	278	332	610	129	270	28	7	265	61	-13	+0	-1	+5	+9	0.0
2036	30	MLB	NYY	60%	313	281	56	12	1	7	23	90	6	7	3	199	274	324	598	125	269	29	7	263	59	-14	+0	-1	+6	+9	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2577	2320	476	105	9	61	185	732	53	61	26	205	279	337	616	132	270	28	7	265	61	-114	+2	-2	+46	+73	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	119	26	2	15	47	185	13	15	7	203	278	332	609	128	268	28	7	265	61	-29	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	5183	4656	937	206	24	113	367	1474	112	143	52	201	276	329	604	127	266	28	7	273	67	-193	+8	-4	+93	+147	5.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	117	26	3	14	46	185	14	18	7	200	275	327	602	127	265	28	7	273	67	-24	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	156	128	31	12	0	1	17	33	9	11	2	242	370	359	730	117	312	21	11	335	115	+3	+1	—	—	+4	0.9
2025	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	186	149	38	10	0	6	26	34	7	16	4	255	390	443	833	188	283	18	14	368	140	+8	+2	—	—	+5	1.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,761	62	65	206	276	336	+49	+24	3.4	3.1
	/162	664	15	16	206	276	336	+11.9	+5.8	0.8	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Capellan (OGILVIE)	20	40	45	60	50	161/236/284	123	234	5	8	35%	5%	29	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	56→55	43	214/285/313	99	288	7	14	27%	7%	68	-0.5	203/314/320	117	299	9	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	201/310/335	134	289	10	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	45→42	42→50	56→50	40	218/268/331	113	302	8	15	30%	6%	64	-0.8	215/273/337	122	287	11	12	27%	6%	68	-0.5	225/274/377	152	279	18	13	26%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Adan Velazquez 2010 · A	20	44→52	43→45	54→50	43	215/277/331	116	278	9	11	25%	6%	69	-0.4	210/261/303	93	295	7	10	30%	5%	54	-1.4	248/287/342	94	301	8	6	20%	4%	71	-0.2
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	43	42→45	53→55	49	209/289/317	108	255	9	14	21%	8%	71	-0.3	228/292/345	117	310	10	10	28%	6%	79	+0.3	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Jeter Downs 2019 · A	21	41→40	42→50	52→55	42	203/265/309	106	263	10	18	26%	6%	58	-1.2	207/272/357	150	272	17	18	30%	7%	74	-0.1	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Jorge Vega-Rosado 2012 · A	20	47	41→45	55	41	224/275/324	100	304	8	19	28%	6%	65	-0.7	205/261/286	81	311	6	14	34%	6%	50	-1.8	174/233/231	57	275	4	15	36%	6%	21	-1.4
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→41	40→45	57→60	42	218/276/313	95	301	7	17	29%	7%	63	-0.9	213/275/311	98	289	7	22	27%	7%	63	-0.9	205/269/314	109	262	10	34	25%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Jeferson Quero 2023 · A	20	44→42	44→50	49→45	41	219/269/335	116	284	12	9	27%	6%	66	-0.6	226/283/364	138	283	16	7	25%	7%	79	+0.3	225/289/370	145	269	18	4	23%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	42	40→45	54→60	47	195/295/296	102	308	7	8	35%	10%	69	-0.4	201/299/281	80	274	6	17	26%	10%	66	-0.6	179/307/226	46	224	4	30	20%	12%	56	-0.5
✕Kenedy Corona 2021 · A	21	45→40	42→45	53→55	46	220/282/327	107	269	8	14	21%	6%	69	-0.4	206/264/322	116	293	11	21	32%	6%	60	-1.0	198/258/327	129	278	14	26	33%	6%	57	-0.8
✕Jose Ramos 2023 · A	20	41	41→40	57→60	48	201/274/306	105	261	8	20	25%	8%	61	-1.0	183/262/263	80	276	4	22	32%	8%	45	-2.1	166/252/237	72	256	4	27	33%	9%	33	-1.3
✕Jorge Alcantara 2012 · A	20	45	40→45	52→50	42	210/275/309	99	310	7	12	33%	7%	62	-0.9	192/263/287	95	292	7	14	34%	8%	52	-1.6	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
✕Bryan Rincon 2023 · A	19	42	45	53→60	45	210/279/333	123	274	12	11	27%	8%	70	-0.3	194/289/295	101	275	9	22	30%	11%	66	-0.6	172/263/292	120	248	13	35	34%	10%	51	-0.7
✕Tito Polo 2015 · A	20	45→50	40→45	55→60	40	215/275/310	96	298	6	17	29%	6%	62	-0.9	217/271/314	97	290	8	26	27%	5%	61	-1.0	225/280/337	113	299	11	32	28%	5%	68	-0.3
✕Evan Van Hoosier 2015 · A	21	48→49	43→50	56→50	45	232/286/358	126	292	9	10	23%	6%	79	+0.3	228/273/336	108	306	6	9	26%	5%	66	-0.6	227/270/341	114	317	5	10	29%	4%	64	-0.3
✕Christian Lopes 2013 · A	20	42→50	42→45	53→50	42	207/256/324	117	265	8	8	25%	5%	57	-1.2	204/258/280	76	260	4	4	22%	6%	46	-2.0	218/301/343	126	271	13	13	23%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Jared Serna 2023 · A	21	41→49	42→45	54→50	49	201/291/307	106	264	9	21	26%	9%	69	-0.4	217/273/331	114	272	11	15	24%	6%	66	-0.6	211/266/314	103	262	10	16	23%	6%	56	-1.2
✕Wendell Rijo 2016 · A	20	42→41	42→55	49→50	40	204/258/310	106	288	8	12	31%	6%	55	-1.4	194/248/276	82	270	6	10	29%	6%	41	-2.3	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕David Kandilas 2012 · A	21	45→44	42→45	54→55	42	219/266/335	116	281	8	12	24%	5%	63	-0.8	212/270/306	94	282	7	17	26%	7%	59	-1.1	203/266/292	89	268	7	20	26%	7%	51	-1.0
✕Kevin Padlo 2016 · A	20	38→40	45→55	50	46	193/270/323	130	263	12	8	30%	9%	64	-0.8	183/268/311	128	268	12	8	34%	10%	60	-1.0	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1