Justin Capellan

C FCL Yankees
Age 21 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1463ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKDSL NYY Bombe…156.242/.370/.35911128—.143/.260/.195
202519ROKDSL NYY Yanke…186.255/.390/.44361637—.146/.258/.241
202620ROKNYY173.221/.306/.3904522—.145/.214/.258
2027PROJMLE21MLBNYY283.200/.267/.29746600.0
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBNYY47.206/.273/.31611650.0
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBNYY106.210/.277/.32822700.0
Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
Z-Con%80
ISO73
Whiff%47
Speed37
K%34
wOBA19
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%
CompsBrandon Dailey (age 21) · Juan Mora (age 21) · Jhostynxon Garcia (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj PA
wRC+†60
AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .264 / .295
PA90
HR1
K%28
BB%7
ISO97
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: -0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +2.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.20.30.30.30.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER45
scouting grade only
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2036Arb-1$0.2M———
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $1M +$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202418 ROKDSL NYY Bombers — 156128 311201 17339 112 242370359730 117312 2111 335 28 — — — — — —
202519 ROKDSL NYY Yankees — 186149 381006 26347 164 255390443833 188283 1814 368 37 — — — — — —
202620 ROKFCL Yankees — 173154 341214 12437 55 221306390696 169280 257 314 22 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202418 ROK MLEDSL NYY Bombers — 156133 19700 12409 112 143260195455 53189 268 210 28 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL NYY Yankees — 186158 23603 17427 164 146258241499 95163 239 223 37 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Yankees — 173159 23713 7627 55 145214258472 113204 364 200 22 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL NYY Bombers — 156133 19700 12409 112 143260195455 53200 268 210 28 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWDSL NYY Bombers — 156128 311201 17339 112 242370359730 117312 2111 335 28 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL NYY Yankees — 186158 23603 17427 164 146258241499 95171 239 223 37 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAWDSL NYY Yankees — 186149 381006 26347 164 255390443833 188283 1814 368 37 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Yankees — 173159 23713 7627 55 145214258472 113213 364 200 22 — — — — — —
202620 ROK RAWFCL Yankees — 173154 341214 12437 55 221306390696 169280 257 314 22 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL NYY Bombers — 156134 19700 12409 112 142260194454 52189 268 210 28 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL NYY Yankees — 186160 23603 17427 164 144258237496 94163 239 223 37 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Yankees — 173157 23713 7627 55 146214261475 115204 364 200 22 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEDSL NYY Bombers — 156134 19700 12409 112 142260194454 52189 268 210 28 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL NYY Yankees — 186160 23603 17427 164 144258237496 94163 239 223 37 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Yankees — 173157 23713 7627 55 146214261475 115204 364 200 22 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLENYY 0% 283257 521124 19805 62 200267297564 97273 287 257 60 -14 +0 +0 +5 +6 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLENYY 34% 136124 25512 9382 31 205272312584 107275 287 265 65 -6 +0 +0 +2 +3 -0.0
202923 MLB MLENYY 48% 218197 42914 15604 51 209277324600 114276 287 271 70 -8 +1 +0 +4 +5 0.1
203024 MLB MLENYY 53% 302273 591226 21825 72 213280333613 120278 277 276 73 -10 +1 +0 +5 +7 0.3
203125 MLB MLENYY 55% 357323 691427 25966 92 215283339622 124279 277 280 76 -10 +1 +0 +6 +8 0.5
203226 MLB MLENYY 56% 390353 761528 281046 93 216285343628 126279 277 282 77 -11 +1 +0 +7 +8 0.6
203327 MLB MLENYY 55% 403365 781628 291086 103 215284340624 125279 277 281 76 -11 +1 +0 +7 +9 0.5
203428 MLB MLENYY 55% 406368 781628 291106 93 213282336617 122278 277 278 74 -12 +1 -1 +7 +9 0.4
203529 MLB MLENYY 53% 399362 761528 281096 83 211279329608 118276 277 274 72 -13 +0 -1 +7 +9 0.1
203630 MLB MLENYY 53% 390354 741527 271086 73 208275321597 114274 287 270 69 -15 +0 -2 +7 +8 -0.1
202822 MLB CTXNYY 34% 4743 9201 3131 10 206273316589 110274 286 266 65 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.0
202923 MLB CTXNYY 48% 10696 21412 7292 21 210277328605 118276 277 273 70 -4 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.0
203024 MLB CTXNYY 53% 159144 30613 11433 41 214281337619 124278 277 278 73 -5 +0 +0 +3 +3 0.2
203125 MLB CTXNYY 55% 195176 38814 14533 51 216284344628 128279 277 282 76 -6 +1 +0 +3 +4 0.3
203226 MLB CTXNYY 56% 217197 42815 15583 51 218286348634 131279 277 285 77 -6 +1 +0 +4 +5 0.3
203327 MLB CTXNYY 55% 222201 44915 16603 52 216285346630 129279 277 283 76 -6 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.3
203428 MLB CTXNYY 55% 222201 44915 16603 52 214283341623 126278 277 280 74 -7 +0 -0 +4 +5 0.2
203529 MLB CTXNYY 53% 213193 40814 15583 41 212280334614 122276 277 277 72 -7 +0 -1 +4 +5 0.1
203630 MLB CTXNYY 53% 205186 39814 14573 41 209276326602 117274 287 272 69 -8 +0 -1 +4 +4 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 15861437 30762833 11143124 3510 214281337618 123279 277 279 67 -50 +3 -2 +28 +34 1.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650589 12625314 4517710 144 214281338618 124279 277 279 67 -21 +1 -1 +12 +14 0.6
Career— MLE — 36063251 6581401865 25398572 10133 202275317591 114267 277 267 67 -100 +5 -4 +55 +67 2.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650586 11825312 4617813 186 201274316590 114265 277 267 67 -21 +1 -1 +12 +14 0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Yankees · 173 PAwOBA .305 → .200 (−106)K% 24.9% → 35.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.86%÷1.000×1.440——35.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.94%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9954.28%
HBP% /PA4.05%—×0.720—×0.9952.90%
Singles /BIP15.32%÷1.000×0.820×0.950×0.99511.87%
Doubles /BIP10.81%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×0.9957.36%
Triples /BIP0.90%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×0.9950.61%
Home runs /BIP3.60%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9952.80%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .305 → .200; ISO .169 → .109; BABIP .280 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL NYY Yankees · 186 PAwOBA .367 → .223 (−144)K% 18.3% → 22.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.28%÷0.988×1.220——22.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.98%÷1.066×0.700—×0.9959.14%
HBP% /PA3.76%—×0.700—×0.9952.62%
Singles /BIP19.13%÷1.113×0.680×0.998×0.99511.61%
Doubles /BIP8.70%÷1.069×0.600×0.998×0.9954.85%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.943×0.600×0.998×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP5.22%÷1.093×0.470—×0.9952.23%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 123, 2B 114, 3B 89, K 98, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .367 → .223; ISO .188 → .095; BABIP .283 → .163. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 156 PAwOBA .331 → .210 (−121)K% 21.2% → 25.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.15%÷1.003×1.220——25.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.90%÷1.005×0.700—×1.0087.65%
HBP% /PA5.77%—×0.700—×1.0084.07%
Singles /BIP18.95%÷1.008×0.680×0.950×1.00812.24%
Doubles /BIP12.63%÷1.038×0.600×0.950×1.0086.99%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.600×0.950×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP1.05%÷1.658×0.470—×1.0080.30%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 232, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .331 → .210; ISO .117 → .060; BABIP .312 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).