Konner Eaton — OGILVIE

Konner Eaton P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 216 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.7 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%19.9%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL—45

CMD4050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$7M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$11M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	11	44	16	3	0	0%	1.2	36.4%	6.8%	29.5%	0.0%	0.82	0.89	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	11	44	16	3	0	0%	1.2	36.4%	6.8%	29.5%	0.0%	0.82	0.89	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	11	44	16	3	0	0%	1.2	36.4%	6.8%	29.5%	0.0%	0.82	1.01	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	140	592	149	51	14	100%	5.2	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	2.9%	3.79	4.29	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	140	592	149	51	14	100%	5.2	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	2.9%	3.79	4.29	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	140	592	149	51	14	100%	5.2	25.2%	8.6%	16.6%	2.4%	3.79	3.36	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	23	23	107	472	103	61	19	100%	4.7	17.7%	14.2%	3.5%	4.8%	4.46	6.06	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	23	23	107	472	103	61	19	100%	4.7	17.7%	14.2%	3.5%	4.8%	4.46	6.06	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	COL	23	23	107	472	103	61	19	100%	4.7	21.8%	12.9%	8.9%	4.0%	4.46	5.10	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	COL	2	2	13	55	11	6	2	100%	6.6	19.9%	10.0%	9.8%	2.9%	4.68	4.68	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	120	527	114	67	21	—	—	21.6%	12.6%	9.0%	3.9%	4.48	5.91	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	29	29	164	692	144	65	20	100%	5.7	20.8%	9.3%	11.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.50	+0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	28	28	166	701	149	63	20	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	2.9%	4.46	4.41	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	28	28	166	701	151	62	20	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.9%	12.7%	2.9%	4.41	4.38	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	27	27	164	690	149	62	20	100%	6.1	21.5%	8.9%	12.6%	3.0%	4.41	4.41	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	26	26	159	670	143	61	20	100%	6.1	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	3.1%	4.46	4.50	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	25	25	152	640	135	59	21	100%	6.1	21.2%	9.3%	11.9%	3.2%	4.56	4.63	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	24	24	142	601	125	58	20	100%	5.9	20.8%	9.6%	11.2%	3.4%	4.71	4.81	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	133	561	114	56	20	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	3.6%	4.89	5.01	-0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	123	518	103	54	20	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.3%	9.6%	3.9%	5.10	5.23	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	72	304	63	28	10	100%	5.5	20.8%	9.3%	11.5%	3.4%	4.80	4.74	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	111	469	100	42	16	100%	5.8	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.70	4.65	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	22	22	132	557	120	49	19	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.9%	12.7%	3.3%	4.65	4.62	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	23	23	140	591	127	53	20	100%	6.1	21.5%	8.9%	12.6%	3.4%	4.66	4.66	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	24	24	141	595	127	54	21	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	3.5%	4.72	4.76	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	23	23	138	583	123	54	22	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.3%	11.9%	3.7%	4.83	4.90	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	22	22	131	553	115	53	22	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.6%	11.2%	3.9%	5.00	5.10	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	COL	21	21	124	524	107	52	22	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	4.2%	5.19	5.31	-0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	115	486	97	50	22	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.3%	9.6%	4.5%	5.42	5.55	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		185	185	1104	4662	980	436	172	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	3.7%	4.88	4.54	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	178	79	31	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	3.7%	4.88	4.54	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		59	50	258	1108	215	128	40	85%	4.4	19.4%	11.6%	7.8%	3.6%	3.94	4.91	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	39	200	859	167	99	31	85%	4.4	19.4%	11.6%	7.8%	3.6%	3.94	4.91	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Konner Eaton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	19.9%	10.0%	2.9%	—	4.43	21.2%	12.2%	496	-0.25	—	—	—
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	85
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	85
Anthony Banda L 2017 · 4.09 FIP	23	SP	4.09	19.7%	9.7%	2.6%	.315	4.19	21.5%	12.1%	85	+0.10	2.89	876	85
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	85
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	84
Mitch Horacek L 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP	4.75	17.1%	9.1%	3.5%	.306	3.97	17.9%	8.6%	248	-0.78	3.21	466	83
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	83
Tyler DeLoach L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	19.0%	10.1%	2.6%	.332	2.96	21.7%	12.4%	63	-1.26	2.96	202	82
Matthew Boyd L 2015 · 4.53 FIP	24	SP	4.53	19.4%	7.2%	3.9%	.252	4.27	20.5%	13.1%	518	-0.26	2.22	1,440	81
Eric Lauer L 2018 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	20.2%	9.1%	2.7%	.311	3.90	22.3%	14.4%	279	-0.10	3.75	1,097	81
David Parkinson L 2019 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	19.6%	8.8%	2.1%	.303	5.44	16.0%	8.2%	78	+1.74	3.07	517	80
Yohander Méndez L 2018 · 5.20 FIP	23	SP	5.20	17.0%	9.1%	4.3%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	477	80
Roenis Elías L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SP	4.32	17.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.299	3.98	17.7%	8.3%	251	-0.34	3.15	564	80
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	80
Matthew Crownover L 2016 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP-	4.35	15.2%	8.6%	2.6%	.300	4.58	12.4%	4.3%	248	+0.23	4.35	377	79
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	79
Nick Raquet L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	16.8%	8.9%	2.7%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.66	434	79
Scott Moss L 2018 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	15.3%	8.4%	2.7%	.307	3.97	24.1%	9.8%	151	-0.39	3.83	457	79
Aaron Leasher L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	17.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.301	4.15	19.8%	9.5%	152	-0.16	4.04	477	79
D.J. Snelten L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	23	SP	3.49	18.5%	7.8%	1.8%	.349	3.34	17.3%	8.4%	217	-0.15	3.25	373	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.6	153	20.9%	9.4%	1.22	4.61
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75