Troy Guthrie — OGILVIE

Troy Guthrie P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 3.1 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%15.7%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$59M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Arb-1	$5M	+1.5	$7M	+$5M
2034	Arb-2	$7M	+1.3	$6M	+$2M
2035	Arb-3	$9M	+1.1	$4M	+$0.8M
Totals		$25M		$41M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	3	43	167	36	7	1	27%	3.9	14.7%	5.2%	9.4%	0.8%	2.28	2.95	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	3	43	167	36	7	1	27%	3.9	14.7%	5.2%	9.4%	0.8%	2.28	2.95	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	11	3	43	167	36	7	1	27%	3.9	21.6%	4.2%	17.4%	0.6%	2.28	2.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	26	24	121	510	105	27	15	92%	4.7	15.4%	6.2%	9.2%	3.8%	4.83	4.65	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	26	24	121	510	105	27	15	92%	4.7	15.4%	6.2%	9.2%	3.8%	4.83	4.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	TOR	17	15	79	321	72	16	9	88%	4.7	22.4%	5.0%	17.4%	2.8%	3.97	3.38	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	TOR	9	9	42	189	33	11	6	100%	4.6	17.5%	5.8%	11.6%	3.2%	6.48	4.11	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	124	525	90	33	15	100%	5.9	17.0%	6.2%	10.8%	2.8%	4.44	4.39	+0.7
2028	22	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	131	551	102	33	15	100%	5.7	18.4%	5.9%	12.5%	2.8%	4.30	4.21	+1.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	136	572	111	32	16	100%	5.9	19.3%	5.7%	13.6%	2.8%	4.17	4.09	+1.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	139	586	117	32	16	100%	5.8	19.9%	5.5%	14.4%	2.7%	4.07	4.00	+1.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	141	594	121	32	16	100%	5.9	20.3%	5.4%	14.9%	2.7%	3.99	3.94	+1.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	141	594	122	32	16	100%	6.1	20.5%	5.3%	15.2%	2.7%	3.95	3.92	+1.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	138	585	120	32	16	100%	6.0	20.5%	5.4%	15.1%	2.8%	3.96	3.96	+1.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	134	567	116	32	16	100%	6.1	20.4%	5.6%	14.8%	2.9%	4.01	4.04	+1.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	128	542	109	31	16	100%	6.1	20.1%	5.8%	14.3%	3.0%	4.11	4.17	+1.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	121	509	101	31	16	100%	6.0	19.8%	6.1%	13.7%	3.2%	4.26	4.35	+0.8
2037	31	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	112	475	92	31	16	100%	5.9	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	3.5%	4.44	4.55	+0.5
2038	32	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	104	440	83	30	16	100%	6.1	18.9%	6.9%	12.1%	3.7%	4.64	4.78	+0.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	96	403	74	29	16	100%	6.0	18.4%	7.3%	11.1%	4.0%	4.87	5.03	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	61	258	44	16	7	100%	5.5	17.0%	6.2%	10.8%	2.8%	4.44	4.39	+0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	95	401	74	24	11	100%	5.9	18.4%	5.9%	12.5%	2.8%	4.30	4.21	+0.8
2029	23	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	114	481	93	27	13	100%	5.7	19.3%	5.7%	13.6%	2.8%	4.17	4.09	+1.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	TOR	21	21	124	524	104	29	14	100%	5.9	19.9%	5.5%	14.4%	2.7%	4.07	4.00	+1.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	129	545	111	29	15	100%	5.9	20.3%	5.4%	14.9%	2.7%	3.99	3.94	+1.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	131	553	113	30	15	100%	6.0	20.5%	5.3%	15.2%	2.7%	3.95	3.92	+1.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	132	557	114	30	15	100%	6.0	20.5%	5.4%	15.1%	2.8%	3.96	3.96	+1.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	TOR	21	21	128	540	110	30	16	100%	6.1	20.4%	5.6%	14.8%	2.9%	4.01	4.04	+1.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	122	515	104	30	16	100%	6.1	20.1%	5.8%	14.3%	3.0%	4.11	4.17	+1.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	115	486	96	30	16	100%	6.1	19.8%	6.1%	13.7%	3.2%	4.26	4.35	+0.7
2037	31	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	107	452	88	29	16	100%	5.9	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	3.5%	4.44	4.55	+0.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	99	418	79	29	15	100%	6.2	18.9%	6.9%	12.1%	3.7%	4.64	4.78	+0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	91	384	71	28	15	100%	6.1	18.4%	7.3%	11.1%	4.0%	4.87	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		244	244	1447	6108	1200	360	185	100%	5.9	19.6%	5.9%	13.7%	3.0%	4.21	3.85	+18.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	166	50	26	100%	5.9	19.6%	5.9%	13.7%	3.0%	4.21	3.85	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		37	27	164	677	103	40	20	73%	4.4	15.2%	5.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.16	4.23	+13.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	33	200	824	126	49	25	73%	4.4	15.2%	5.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.16	4.23	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Troy Guthrie (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	15.7%	6.2%	2.9%	—	4.23	18.3%	12.4%	390	-0.30	—	—	—
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	90
Pedro Barrios R 2018 · 4.31 FIP	19	SP	4.31	14.7%	6.7%	2.9%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	159	85
Elieser Hernández R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	20	SP-	3.52	17.1%	6.5%	1.9%	.302	4.53	17.9%	9.2%	237	+1.01	3.52	787	85
Jose Vasquez R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP	4.11	13.5%	6.0%	2.5%	.287	4.68	15.2%	1.6%	68	+0.57	3.60	162	85
Brad Case R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP-	3.78	12.7%	4.9%	2.1%	.316	4.91	14.8%	9.1%	204	+1.13	3.78	393	85
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	84
Heribert Garcia R 2019 · 4.60 FIP	19	SP-	4.60	13.1%	6.0%	3.4%	.301	5.14	16.5%	9.8%	123	+0.54	2.72	243	84
Geoffrey Bramblett R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	21	SP	3.75	15.1%	5.8%	2.2%	.223	5.35	11.3%	1.5%	81	+1.60	3.75	130	83
Pedro Garcia R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	20	SP-	4.69	15.5%	6.8%	3.7%	.221	5.80	13.9%	0.2%	139	+1.11	4.69	247	83
Adam Oller R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP-	4.86	13.3%	4.8%	4.2%	.322	4.53	17.4%	9.0%	160	-0.33	3.47	670	83
Luis Tejeda R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	18	SP-	3.65	14.3%	6.1%	1.8%	.295	6.07	11.9%	-4.6%	45	+2.42	3.65	131	83
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	83
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	82
Francys Peguero R 2016 · 3.38 FIP	20	SP-	3.38	17.0%	4.6%	2.1%	.305	4.93	15.6%	9.0%	116	+1.55	2.85	293	82
Osman Gutierrez R 2015 · 4.23 FIP	20	SP-	4.23	13.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.322	5.15	14.6%	1.7%	143	+0.92	4.23	189	82
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	82
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	82
Ryan Mason R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	10.4%	4.8%	3.3%	.321	2.93	17.5%	12.5%	142	-1.73	1.66	245	82
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	81
Jesus Lugo R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.08	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.29	3.79	113	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.4	119	19.5%	5.9%	1.16	4.22
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17