Troy Guthrie
P
Dunedin Blue Jays
Age 20
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
A
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
K%15.7%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%7.6%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 11 | 3 | 43 | 167 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 27% | 3.9 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 9.4% | 0.7% | 2.28 | 2.92 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 11 | 3 | 43 | 167 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 27% | 3.9 | 21.6% | 4.2% | 17.4% | 0.6% | 2.28 | 2.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 17 | 15 | 79 | 321 | 72 | 16 | 9 | 88% | 4.7 | 16.6% | 5.9% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 3.97 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TOR | 5 | 5 | 27 | 113 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.77 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 106 | 434 | 90 | 25 | 12 | — | — | 20.7% | 5.8% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TOR | 4 | 4 | 28 | 119 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 7.0 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TOR | 2 | 2 | 14 | 59 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 7.0 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 14 | 58 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.9 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.23 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 31 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 145 | 72 | 29 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 28 | 18 | 123 | 488 | 78 | 28 | 13 | 64% | 4.4 | 15.9% | 5.7% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 3.38 | 3.92 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 29 | 200 | 796 | 127 | 45 | 21 | 64% | 4.4 | 15.9% | 5.7% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 3.38 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Troy Guthrie (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.61 | 17.2% | 9.1% | 28 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Manzano R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.12 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .347 | 4.69 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 199 | -0.43 | 4.15 | 269 | 86 |
| Tanner Jones R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.8% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .317 | 4.83 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 68 | +1.03 | 3.80 | 108 | 85 |
| Jack Perkins R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.44 | 13.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.73 | 16.4% | 7.5% | 156 | +0.29 | 4.29 | 176 | 85 |
| Osman Gutierrez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.23 | 13.6% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .322 | 5.29 | 14.6% | 1.7% | 143 | +1.06 | 4.23 | 189 | 85 |
| Heribert Garcia R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.60 | 13.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .301 | 4.87 | 16.5% | 9.8% | 123 | +0.27 | 2.72 | 243 | 85 |
| Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.46 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .312 | 3.70 | 21.5% | 12.7% | 111 | -0.76 | 3.25 | 266 | 84 |
| Adrian Ardines R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.08 | 18.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 114 | 84 |
| Abel Duarte R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.84 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.93 | 13.9% | 6.7% | 79 | -0.91 | 3.19 | 127 | 83 |
| Peyton Remy R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .280 | 4.82 | 16.3% | 5.2% | 140 | +1.25 | 3.57 | 286 | 83 |
| Andrew Cabezas R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .210 | 4.78 | 16.7% | 6.9% | 185 | +0.19 | 4.23 | 300 | 83 |
| Zach Lewis R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.57 | 14.3% | 7.6% | 1.3% | .286 | 4.10 | 16.3% | 5.2% | 213 | +0.53 | 3.57 | 266 | 83 |
| Winston Nicacio R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.62 | 11.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.33 | 14.4% | 7.0% | 64 | -0.29 | 1.96 | 170 | 82 |
| Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 82 |
| Pedro Barrios R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.31 | 14.7% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 159 | 82 |
| Jeremiah Burke R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.88 | 11.9% | 9.3% | 2.9% | .330 | 3.83 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 34 | -1.05 | 3.83 | 137 | 82 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.85 | 15.5% | 6.8% | 4.0% | .221 | 6.02 | 13.9% | 0.2% | 139 | +1.17 | 4.85 | 226 | 82 |
| Luis Cohen R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.14 | 17.2% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .263 | 4.99 | 13.7% | 3.4% | 225 | +0.85 | 3.00 | 310 | 82 |
| Logan Gragg R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 82 |
| Nick Belzer R 2029 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.55 | 12.8% | 4.2% | 63 | +0.32 | 4.23 | 112 | 81 |
| Brian Rapp R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.68 | 14.7% | 7.3% | 1.6% | .361 | 6.21 | 13.7% | -2.0% | 84 | +2.53 | 3.68 | 123 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 16.4% | 8.1% | 1.11 | 4.71 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |