Troy Guthrie

P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.5 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#341ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKTOR	11	3	43	2.28	2.22	21.6%	4.2%	—	K 14.7% · BB 5.2% · FIP 2.95
2026	20	MIX2 levels	26	24	121	4.83	3.65	20.6%	5.3%	—	K 15.4% · BB 6.2% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	21	MLBTOR	—	—	0	4.86	4.86	13.8%	6.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTOR	8	8	45	4.67	4.59	16.2%	6.2%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBTOR	12	12	67	4.51	4.42	17.6%	6.0%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 8.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 86%

CompsNick Gardewine (age 21) · Brock Dykxhoorn (age 21) · J.D. Busfield (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%13.8%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%7.4%

Proj IP85

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$48M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$21M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	3	43	167	36	7	1	27%	3.9	14.7%	5.2%	9.4%	0.8%	2.28	2.95	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	3	43	167	36	7	1	27%	3.9	14.7%	5.2%	9.4%	0.8%	2.28	2.95	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	11	3	43	167	36	7	1	27%	3.9	21.6%	4.2%	17.4%	0.6%	2.28	2.22	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	121	510	105	27	15	92%	4.7	15.4%	6.2%	9.2%	3.8%	4.83	4.65	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	121	510	105	27	15	92%	4.7	15.4%	6.2%	9.2%	3.8%	4.83	4.65	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	121	510	105	27	15	92%	4.7	20.6%	5.3%	15.3%	2.9%	4.83	3.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.8%	6.4%	7.4%	3.2%	4.86	4.86	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	92	388	63	24	12	100%	5.7	16.2%	6.2%	10.0%	3.1%	4.67	4.59	+0.9
2029	23	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	92	388	68	23	12	100%	5.7	17.6%	6.0%	11.6%	3.0%	4.51	4.42	+1.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	92	388	71	23	12	100%	5.7	18.4%	5.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.32	+1.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	83	352	66	20	11	100%	6.0	18.9%	5.8%	13.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.26	+1.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	84	353	67	20	11	100%	6.0	19.1%	5.7%	13.3%	3.0%	4.27	4.24	+1.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	82	345	66	20	10	100%	5.8	19.0%	5.8%	13.2%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+1.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	78	328	62	20	10	100%	6.0	18.9%	5.9%	13.0%	3.1%	4.32	4.36	+0.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	72	306	57	19	10	100%	6.0	18.7%	6.2%	12.5%	3.3%	4.42	4.49	+0.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	66	277	51	18	10	100%	6.0	18.3%	6.5%	11.9%	3.5%	4.57	4.67	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	59	249	45	17	9	100%	5.9	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	3.7%	4.75	4.87	+0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	52	222	39	16	9	100%	5.8	17.5%	7.2%	10.3%	4.0%	4.96	5.09	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	45	190	31	12	6	100%	5.6	16.2%	6.2%	10.0%	3.1%	4.67	4.59	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	67	283	50	17	9	100%	5.6	17.6%	6.0%	11.6%	3.0%	4.51	4.42	+0.8
2030	24	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	76	321	59	19	10	100%	5.8	18.4%	5.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.32	+1.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	74	312	59	18	9	100%	5.7	18.9%	5.8%	13.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.26	+1.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	76	321	61	18	10	100%	5.8	19.1%	5.7%	13.3%	3.0%	4.27	4.24	+1.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	76	321	61	19	10	100%	5.8	19.0%	5.8%	13.2%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+1.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	73	308	58	18	10	100%	6.1	18.9%	5.9%	13.0%	3.1%	4.32	4.36	+0.9
2035	29	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	69	291	54	18	10	100%	5.8	18.7%	6.2%	12.5%	3.3%	4.42	4.49	+0.7
2036	30	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	62	262	48	17	9	100%	6.2	18.3%	6.5%	11.9%	3.5%	4.57	4.67	+0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	56	236	42	16	9	100%	6.2	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	3.7%	4.75	4.87	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	50	211	37	15	8	100%	6.2	17.5%	7.2%	10.3%	4.0%	4.96	5.09	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	123	724	3055	560	187	98	100%	5.9	18.3%	6.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.46	4.09	+11.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	155	52	27	100%	5.9	18.3%	6.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.46	4.09	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		37	27	164	677	103	40	20	73%	4.4	15.2%	5.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.16	4.23	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	33	200	824	126	49	25	73%	4.4	15.2%	5.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.16	4.23	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 79 IPFIP 3.38 → 4.44 (+1.07)K% 22.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.43%	—	×0.740	16.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.98%	—	×1.180	5.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.80%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.64%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.38 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 42 IPFIP 4.11 → 4.99 (+0.89)K% 17.5% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.46%	—	×0.770	13.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.82%	—	×1.150	6.69%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.97%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.11 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 43 IPFIP 2.14 → 2.95 (+0.81)K% 21.6% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.56%	—	×0.680	14.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.19%	—	×1.250	5.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.60%	÷1.077	×1.400	0.78%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.14 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Troy Guthrie (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	13.8%	6.4%	3.2%	—	4.44	17.4%	11.4%	275	-0.42	—	—	—
Nick Gardewine R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	21	SP-	4.24	14.4%	6.3%	2.8%	.334	3.18	24.5%	16.4%	104	-1.06	2.62	200	93
Brock Dykxhoorn R 2015 · 3.89 FIP	21	SP-	3.89	15.5%	6.8%	2.2%	.287	4.48	16.4%	8.3%	350	+0.59	3.89	459	88
J.D. Busfield R 2017 · 4.62 FIP	22	SP	4.62	12.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.293	4.82	11.5%	6.4%	68	+0.20	4.62	177	87
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	86
Tommy Parsons R 2018 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	12.6%	5.4%	4.2%	.302	5.28	18.0%	12.5%	234	+0.24	4.82	501	85
Derek Diamond R 2023 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	14.4%	6.9%	3.6%	.307	4.52	16.1%	10.5%	153	-0.21	3.38	272	85
Ryan Mason R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	10.4%	4.8%	3.3%	.321	2.93	17.5%	12.5%	142	-1.73	1.66	245	84
Starlyn Suriel R 2015 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	10.7%	7.4%	3.1%	.303	4.22	17.0%	8.0%	62	-0.65	4.22	176	84
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	84
Carson LaRue R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	16.0%	7.3%	2.1%	.283	5.03	15.4%	6.3%	224	+1.19	3.84	360	84
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	84
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	84
Pedro Barrios R 2018 · 4.31 FIP	19	SP	4.31	14.7%	6.7%	2.9%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	159	84
Austin Chrismon R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	11.6%	5.2%	3.2%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	122	84
Brad Case R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP-	3.78	12.7%	4.9%	2.1%	.316	4.91	14.8%	9.1%	204	+1.13	3.78	393	84
Adam Oller R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP-	4.86	13.3%	4.8%	4.2%	.322	4.53	17.4%	9.0%	160	-0.33	3.47	670	84
Kyle Dowdy R 2016 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	14.2%	6.3%	2.3%	.311	3.90	17.5%	8.6%	323	-0.04	2.98	606	84
Rafael Soriano R 2002 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP-	4.88	15.8%	7.4%	4.0%	.252	1.48	33.8%	28.3%	53	-3.40	1.48	620	83
Ubert Mejias R 2023 · 3.74 FIP	22	SP-	3.74	14.2%	7.9%	1.5%	.326	4.43	14.0%	8.0%	264	+0.69	3.74	326	83
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	78	17.8%	6.1%	1.24	4.51
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Tommy Hunter ('23)	4.6	71	16.7%	5.4%	1.27	4.07
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Dave Schmidt ('81-'92, 8 WAR*)	4.5	90	17.4%*	6.1%*	1.04*	4.13*
Paul Lindblad ('65-'78, 6 WAR*)	6.1	93	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.22*	4.07*
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31