Victor Hurtado

OF FCL Nationals
Age 20 L/L 6'3" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKWSH155.218/.316/.3313314—.137/.211/.187
202518ROKWSH168.236/.359/.3142620—.151/.257/.199
202619ROKWSH105.259/.417/.4073871—.182/.301/.273
2027PROJMLE20MLBWSH215.204/.275/.2852360-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBWSH38.209/.280/.2970165-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
Chase%78
wRC+69
BB%69
ISO65
K%62
wOBA60
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%
CompsMichael De La Cruz (age 20) · Alain Camou (age 20) · Jaden Rudd (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj PA
wRC+†60
AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .272 / .282
PA56
HR1
K%26
BB%7
ISO80
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-0POSREP: +1.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER25
scouting grade only
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Nationals — 155133 29603 17332 31 218316331647 113260 2111 293 14 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL Nationals — 168140 33312 19238 63 236359314674 79270 1411 317 20 — — — — — —
202619 ROKFCL Nationals — 10581 21303 19203 84 259417407825 148300 1918 373 71 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Nationals — 155139 19401 11392 31 137211187398 50172 257 189 14 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Nationals — 168146 22211 13298 63 151257199456 48167 178 198 20 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 10588 16202 12293 84 182301273574 91236 2811 273 71 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Nationals — 155139 19401 11392 31 137211187398 50176 257 189 14 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Nationals — 155133 29603 17332 31 218316331647 113260 2111 293 14 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Nationals — 168146 22211 13298 63 151257199456 48181 178 198 20 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWDSL Nationals — 168140 33312 19238 63 236359314674 79270 1411 317 20 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 10588 16202 12293 84 182301273574 91237 2811 273 71 — — — — — —
202619 ROK RAWFCL Nationals — 10581 21303 19203 84 259417407825 148300 1918 373 71 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Nationals — 155141 19401 11392 31 135211184395 50172 257 189 14 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Nationals — 168145 22211 13298 63 152257200457 48167 178 198 20 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 10589 16202 12293 84 180301270571 90236 2811 273 71 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Nationals — 155141 19401 11392 31 135211184395 50172 257 189 14 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Nationals — 168145 22211 13298 63 152257200457 48167 178 198 20 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 10589 16202 12293 84 180301270571 90236 2811 273 71 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEWSH 0% 215194 40712 16563 31 204275285559 80273 267 256 60 -10 +0 +0 -1 +5 -0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEWSH 34% 11099 20311 8282 21 209280299580 90275 257 265 65 -5 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.3
202821 MLB CTXWSH 34% 3834 6100 3101 10 209280297577 89274 268 264 65 -2 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 3834 6100 3101 10 176263206469 29250 268 264 40 -2 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650582 1031700 5117117 170 177263206469 29251 268 264 40 -27 +3 +0 -4 +14 -1.3
Career— MLE — 594523 881326 4814016 209 168259235494 67214 248 227 40 -7 +0 +0 -1 +4 -0.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650572 961427 5315318 2210 168260236496 68212 248 227 40 -28 +1 +0 -4 +14 -1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Nationals · 105 PAwOBA .371 → .273 (−98)K% 19.0% → 27.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.05%÷1.000×1.440——27.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.10%÷1.000×0.620—×1.00811.30%
HBP% /PA2.86%—×0.720—×1.0082.07%
Singles /BIP24.59%÷1.000×0.820×0.980×1.00819.91%
Doubles /BIP4.92%÷1.000×0.720×0.980×1.0083.50%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720×0.980×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP4.92%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0083.86%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .371 → .273; ISO .148 → .116; BABIP .300 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Nationals · 168 PAwOBA .309 → .198 (−111)K% 13.7% → 17.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.69%÷0.975×1.220——17.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.31%÷1.026×0.700—×1.0087.78%
HBP% /PA4.76%—×0.700—×1.0083.36%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷1.025×0.680×0.950×1.00814.65%
Doubles /BIP2.56%÷0.999×0.600×0.950×1.0081.47%
Triples /BIP0.85%÷0.999×0.600×0.950×1.0080.49%
Home runs /BIP1.71%÷1.300×0.470—×1.0080.62%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 100, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .309 → .198; ISO .079 → .037; BABIP .270 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Nationals · 155 PAwOBA .289 → .189 (−100)K% 21.3% → 24.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.29%÷1.043×1.220——24.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.32%÷1.053×0.700—×1.0227.02%
HBP% /PA1.29%—×0.700—×1.0220.92%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.018×0.680×1.002×1.02213.70%
Doubles /BIP6.00%÷0.970×0.600×1.002×1.0223.80%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.600×1.002×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP3.00%÷1.207×0.470—×1.0221.19%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 104, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 109, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .289 → .189; ISO .113 → .058; BABIP .260 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).