T.J. Schofield-Sam
3B Lansing Lugnuts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A+/AOAK | 478 | .248/.315/.371 | 6 | 3 | 53 | — | .208/.264/.302 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+/A/ROKOAK | 432 | .277/.341/.390 | 6 | 6 | 63 | — | .232/.290/.325 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA/A+OAK | 508 | .271/.355/.374 | 5 | 4 | 54 | — | .206/.282/.275 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBOAK | 1 | .215/.273/.298 | 0 | 0 | 58 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ26% MLB | 27 | MLBOAK | 44 | .216/.274/.302 | 0 | 0 | 59 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Athletics Green | — | 85 | 74 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 306 | 230 | 536 | 27 | 268 | 21 | 13 | 259 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 446 | 391 | 96 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 35 | 105 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 246 | 328 | 391 | 719 | 146 | 306 | 24 | 8 | 320 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 454 | 409 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 79 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 259 | 325 | 374 | 699 | 115 | 304 | 17 | 5 | 314 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 172 | 157 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 204 | 265 | 306 | 570 | 102 | 257 | 25 | 4 | 258 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 306 | 271 | 74 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 62 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 273 | 343 | 410 | 753 | 137 | 335 | 20 | 7 | 332 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 124 | 108 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 331 | 343 | 673 | 111 | 264 | 15 | 7 | 312 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 277 | 254 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 47 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 280 | 330 | 386 | 715 | 106 | 324 | 17 | 3 | 319 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 31 | 28 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 429 | 484 | 607 | 1.091 | 179 | 480 | 10 | 10 | 477 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 66 | 62 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 210 | 258 | 210 | 467 | 265 | 20 | 6 | 221 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 442 | 384 | 108 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 94 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 281 | 370 | 401 | 771 | 120 | 356 | 21 | 5 | 348 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics Green | — | 85 | 78 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 141 | 212 | 154 | 366 | 13 | 221 | 31 | 8 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 446 | 402 | 84 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 140 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 209 | 276 | 318 | 594 | 109 | 287 | 31 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 454 | 417 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 103 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 235 | 290 | 329 | 618 | 94 | 287 | 23 | 3 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 172 | 159 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 58 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 170 | 224 | 245 | 469 | 75 | 234 | 34 | 3 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 306 | 278 | 64 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 85 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 230 | 287 | 335 | 621 | 104 | 301 | 28 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 124 | 110 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 290 | 300 | 590 | 100 | 229 | 20 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 277 | 256 | 61 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 63 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 238 | 286 | 324 | 610 | 86 | 288 | 23 | 2 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 31 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 300 | 323 | 433 | 756 | 133 | 351 | 13 | 3 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 66 | 63 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 190 | 227 | 190 | 418 | 253 | 24 | 5 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 442 | 393 | 82 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 123 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 290 | 288 | 577 | 79 | 281 | 28 | 3 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics Green | — | 85 | 78 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 141 | 212 | 154 | 366 | 13 | 212 | 31 | 8 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Athletics Green | — | 85 | 74 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 306 | 230 | 536 | 27 | 268 | 21 | 13 | 259 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 446 | 402 | 84 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 140 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 209 | 276 | 318 | 594 | 109 | 297 | 31 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 446 | 391 | 96 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 35 | 105 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 246 | 328 | 391 | 719 | 146 | 306 | 24 | 8 | 320 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 454 | 417 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 103 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 235 | 290 | 329 | 618 | 94 | 296 | 23 | 3 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 454 | 409 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 79 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 259 | 325 | 374 | 699 | 115 | 304 | 17 | 5 | 314 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 478 | 437 | 90 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 143 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 206 | 262 | 300 | 561 | 94 | 289 | 30 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 478 | 428 | 106 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 105 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 248 | 315 | 371 | 686 | 124 | 308 | 22 | 6 | 305 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 432 | 397 | 91 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 92 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 229 | 285 | 315 | 600 | 86 | 285 | 21 | 3 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 432 | 390 | 108 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 69 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 277 | 341 | 390 | 731 | 113 | 320 | 16 | 4 | 328 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 508 | 456 | 94 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 139 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 206 | 282 | 274 | 556 | 68 | 284 | 27 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 508 | 446 | 121 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 107 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 271 | 355 | 374 | 730 | 103 | 343 | 21 | 6 | 332 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics Green | — | 85 | 78 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 141 | 212 | 154 | 366 | 13 | 221 | 31 | 8 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 446 | 406 | 84 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 140 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 207 | 276 | 315 | 591 | 108 | 287 | 31 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 454 | 419 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 103 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 234 | 290 | 327 | 617 | 93 | 287 | 23 | 3 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 478 | 442 | 90 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 143 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 204 | 262 | 296 | 558 | 93 | 277 | 30 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 432 | 398 | 91 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 92 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 229 | 285 | 314 | 599 | 85 | 276 | 21 | 3 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 508 | 455 | 94 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 139 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 282 | 275 | 556 | 68 | 277 | 27 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 432 | 398 | 91 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 92 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 229 | 285 | 314 | 599 | 85 | 276 | 21 | 3 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 508 | 455 | 94 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 139 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 282 | 275 | 556 | 68 | 277 | 27 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | OAK | 0% | 380 | 349 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 95 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 209 | 267 | 288 | 555 | 79 | 274 | 25 | 3 | 254 | 58 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | OAK | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 273 | 298 | 571 | 83 | 282 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 58 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | OAK | 26% | 167 | 153 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 269 | 291 | 560 | 81 | 274 | 25 | 4 | 256 | 59 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | OAK | 26% | 44 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 274 | 302 | 576 | 86 | 283 | 25 | 5 | 262 | 59 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 44 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 250 | 523 | 50 | 276 | 25 | 5 | 262 | 58 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 119 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 162 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 275 | 252 | 527 | 51 | 277 | 25 | 5 | 262 | 58 | -32 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2725 | 2483 | 529 | 97 | 19 | 26 | 105 | 724 | 106 | 30 | 16 | 213 | 275 | 299 | 574 | 86 | 285 | 27 | 4 | 254 | 58 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 126 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 173 | 25 | 7 | 4 | 213 | 274 | 299 | 573 | 86 | 286 | 27 | 4 | 254 | 58 | -32 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 442 PAwOBA .342 → .257 (−85)K% 21.3% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.27% | ÷0.969 | ×1.270 | — | — | 27.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.20% | ÷1.048 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 3.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.79% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 5.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.55% | ÷1.078 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 22.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.24% | ÷1.199 | ×0.810 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 1.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.921 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.48% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 116, 2B 140, 3B 130, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .342 → .257; ISO .120 → .085; BABIP .356 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 66 PAwOBA .215 → .187 (−28)K% 19.7% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.70% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.06% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.53% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×1.038 | ×1.012 | 25.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | ×1.038 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.038 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.043 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 102, 2B 126, 3B 130, K 98, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .215 → .187; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .265 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AStockton Ports · 277 PAwOBA .315 → .259 (−55)K% 17.0% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.97% | ÷1.015 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.53% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 1.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.33% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 3.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×0.990 | 23.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.31% | ÷0.979 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×0.990 | 4.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.996 | ×0.990 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.93% | ÷1.164 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 1.31% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 101, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .315 → .259; ISO .106 → .081; BABIP .324 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 124 PAwOBA .304 → .250 (−54)K% 15.3% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.32% | ÷0.974 | ×1.270 | — | — | 19.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.26% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.65% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 4.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.10% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 16.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.74% | ÷0.992 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.25% | ÷0.867 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.07% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .304 → .250; ISO .111 → .094; BABIP .264 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Athletics · 31 PAwOBA .457 → .331 (−126)K% 9.7% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.68% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 13.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.45% | ÷0.986 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 3.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 24.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 7.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.907 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 3.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.852 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 125, 3B 81, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .457 → .331; ISO .179 → .123; BABIP .480 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AStockton Ports · 306 PAwOBA .330 → .272 (−58)K% 20.3% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.26% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.86% | ÷1.004 | ×0.690 | — | — | 4.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.61% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.01% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | — | 20.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.026 | ×0.830 | ×1.000 | — | 8.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷0.945 | ×0.910 | ×1.000 | — | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.44% | ÷0.945 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.22% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 89, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .330 → .272; ISO .137 → .111; BABIP .335 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 172 PAwOBA .254 → .200 (−55)K% 25.0% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.938 | ×1.270 | — | — | 33.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.07% | ÷1.036 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 2.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.49% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 2.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.30% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 18.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.14% | ÷0.946 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 5.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.209 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.76% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 88, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .254 → .200; ISO .102 → .070; BABIP .257 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AStockton Ports · 454 PAwOBA .308 → .267 (−41)K% 17.4% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.40% | ÷1.049 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.63% | ÷1.029 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 3.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.96% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 3.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.42% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×1.015 | 22.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.97% | ÷1.092 | ×0.830 | ×1.030 | ×1.015 | 5.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.030 | ×0.910 | ×1.030 | ×1.015 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.003 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.47% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 106, K 110, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .308 → .267; ISO .115 → .092; BABIP .304 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).