Billy Carlson

SS Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 185 lbs A HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

APROSPECTFG #176MiLBFA 2036

Scout OFP56ETA2028FG ETA2030MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	20	ACWS	257	.256/.391/.338	0	13	72	—	.219/.324/.288
2027PROJ10% MLB	21	MLBCWS	24	.216/.299/.319	0	0	76	0.0
2028PROJ53% MLB	22	MLBCWS	164	.220/.303/.333	3	4	81	0.4
2029PROJ68% MLB	23	MLBCWS	268	.224/.306/.345	5	6	85	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$5M2034Arb-2$8M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Whiff%82

BB%79

Z-Con%76

Speed75

Chase%66

wOBA59

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 89%

CompsCody Freeman (age 21) · Cayden Wallace (age 21) · Nacho Alvarez Jr. (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .299 / .319

PA24

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP290

ISO45

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$49M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 49

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER49

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

DEFENSE68

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$8M
2033	Arb-1	$5M	+1.5	$8M	+$5M
2034	Arb-2	$8M	+1.3	$6M	+$2M
2035	Arb-3	$10M	+1.2	$5M	+$1.0M
Totals		$25M		$42M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	20	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	257	207	53	13	2	0	41	58	5	13	2	256	391	338	729	82	351	23	16	337	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	257	219	48	11	2	0	29	79	5	13	2	219	324	288	612	68	322	31	11	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	257	219	48	11	2	0	29	79	5	13	2	219	324	288	612	68	338	31	11	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	257	207	53	13	2	0	41	58	5	13	2	256	391	338	729	82	351	23	16	337	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	257	221	48	11	2	0	29	79	5	13	2	217	324	285	609	68	322	31	11	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	257	221	48	11	2	0	29	79	5	13	2	217	324	285	609	68	322	31	11	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CWS	10%	367	326	70	13	3	5	34	99	4	8	2	215	298	317	615	102	289	27	9	281	76	-10	+1	+4	+4	+8	0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	21	MLB CTX	CWS	10%	24	22	4	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	216	299	319	618	104	290	25	8	282	76	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CWS	53%	309	273	60	11	2	5	29	82	4	7	1	219	302	331	634	112	290	27	9	288	81	-7	+1	+4	+3	+7	0.8
2029	23	MLB MLE	CWS	68%	396	351	79	15	3	7	37	104	5	9	2	223	306	343	648	120	291	26	9	293	85	-7	+1	+5	+4	+9	1.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	CWS	71%	454	403	91	17	3	9	43	117	5	10	2	226	308	352	660	126	292	26	9	298	88	-7	+1	+7	+5	+10	1.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	CWS	72%	486	431	97	18	3	10	46	125	6	11	2	228	310	358	668	130	293	26	9	301	90	-6	+1	+8	+5	+11	1.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	CWS	73%	504	446	102	19	3	11	47	129	6	11	2	229	310	363	673	134	292	26	9	303	91	-5	+1	+8	+5	+11	2.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	CWS	72%	510	451	102	19	3	11	48	131	6	11	2	228	309	360	669	132	292	26	9	301	90	-6	+1	+8	+5	+11	2.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	CWS	71%	510	451	102	19	3	11	48	132	6	10	2	226	308	355	663	129	291	26	9	299	88	-7	+1	+7	+5	+11	1.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	CWS	75%	503	446	100	19	3	10	47	132	5	9	2	224	305	349	654	126	290	26	9	295	86	-8	+1	+7	+5	+11	1.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	CWS	78%	494	440	97	18	3	10	46	131	5	9	3	221	302	342	644	121	288	27	9	291	83	-10	+1	+6	+5	+11	1.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	CWS	79%	481	429	93	17	3	9	44	129	5	7	3	217	297	333	629	116	286	27	9	285	79	-12	+0	+5	+5	+10	0.9
2038	32	MLB MLE	CWS	80%	463	414	87	16	2	8	42	126	4	6	4	212	291	321	612	109	282	27	9	278	74	-14	-0	+4	+5	+10	0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	CWS	53%	164	146	32	6	1	3	15	43	2	4	1	220	303	333	636	113	291	26	9	289	81	-4	+0	+2	+2	+4	0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	CWS	68%	268	238	53	10	2	5	25	70	3	6	1	224	306	345	651	121	292	26	9	295	85	-5	+1	+3	+3	+6	0.8
2030	24	MLB CTX	CWS	71%	322	285	65	12	2	7	30	83	4	7	2	227	309	354	663	127	293	26	9	299	88	-5	+1	+5	+3	+7	1.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	CWS	72%	352	312	71	13	2	8	33	90	4	8	2	229	310	361	671	132	293	26	9	302	90	-4	+1	+6	+4	+8	1.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	CWS	73%	367	326	74	14	2	8	34	94	4	8	2	230	311	365	676	135	293	26	9	304	91	-4	+1	+6	+4	+8	1.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	CWS	72%	365	324	74	14	2	8	34	94	4	8	2	229	310	363	673	134	293	26	9	303	90	-4	+1	+6	+4	+8	1.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	CWS	71%	362	321	73	14	2	8	34	94	4	7	2	227	308	358	666	131	292	26	9	300	88	-5	+1	+5	+4	+8	1.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	CWS	75%	377	335	75	14	2	8	35	99	4	7	2	225	306	352	658	127	291	26	9	297	86	-6	+1	+5	+4	+8	1.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	CWS	78%	383	341	76	14	2	8	35	101	4	7	2	222	302	344	647	123	289	26	9	292	83	-8	+1	+5	+4	+8	1.0
2037	31	MLB CTX	CWS	79%	381	339	74	14	2	7	35	102	4	6	2	218	298	335	632	117	286	27	9	287	79	-9	+0	+4	+4	+8	0.7
2038	32	MLB CTX	CWS	80%	371	332	71	13	2	7	33	101	3	5	3	213	292	323	614	110	283	27	9	279	74	-11	-0	+3	+4	+8	0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3712	3299	738	138	21	77	343	971	40	73	21	224	304	348	653	125	291	26	9	295	84	-65	+6	+49	+40	+80	11.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	129	24	4	13	60	170	7	13	4	223	304	346	650	123	291	26	9	295	84	-11	+1	+9	+7	+14	2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5611	4970	1105	208	35	104	529	1483	65	118	28	222	305	341	646	119	293	26	9	293	84	-96	+11	+71	+57	+116	16.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	128	24	4	12	61	172	8	14	3	222	305	340	646	118	294	26	9	293	84	-12	+1	+9	+7	+14	2.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Buddy Kerr'43-'51 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,056 PA	6.1	4,056	31	38	239*	299*	352*	+43	+83	14.7	16.2
/162	664	5	6	+7.0	+13.7	2.4	pk7: 18
#2George McBride'01-'20 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,235 PA	9.4	6,235	7	133	217*	281*	328*	+66	+88	13.6	15.6
/162	664	1	14	+7.0	+9.4	1.4	pk7: 18
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.6	3,739	75	71	224	302	348	+40	+60	8.1	7.4
/162	664	13	13	+7.1	+10.7	1.4	pk7: 7
#6Jackie Tavener'21-'29 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,432 PA	3.7	2,432	13	46	226*	289*	370*	+26	+48	6.7	6.7
/162	664	4	13	+7.1	+13.1	1.8	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Billy Carlson (OGILVIE)	21	37→50	40→49	55	60	213/296/314	101	289	3	5	27%	9%	76	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Cody Freeman 2022 · A	21	44→54	41→50	53→50	48	212/289/312	100	263	9	11	22%	8%	73	-0.6	206/260/326	120	247	14	9	22%	6%	65	-1.2	257/301/394	137	287	15	10	16%	5%	94	+0.6
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	46→49	42→50	57→50	43	224/279/341	116	300	8	15	27%	6%	74	-0.5	220/277/337	117	289	10	12	26%	6%	73	-0.6	232/281/372	140	285	16	15	24%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2024 · A	21	51→54	40	50	50	241/318/332	91	306	7	13	22%	9%	88	+0.4	240/315/330	90	307	8	14	22%	8%	86	+0.3	238/317/323	85	303	7	15	22%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→48	45→55	51→55	44	213/272/340	128	284	12	11	29%	7%	72	-0.7	233/294/390	157	279	18	13	23%	7%	93	+0.8	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Colin Walsh 2011 · A	21	44→52	40→45	53→50	52	213/295/309	95	271	8	10	23%	10%	74	-0.6	224/297/348	124	275	11	8	21%	9%	84	+0.1	214/321/331	117	302	10	7	29%	13%	87	+0.3
✕Sam McWilliams 2019 · A	21	46→52	39→50	54→50	43	214/280/306	92	310	5	15	31%	7%	67	-1.1	212/271/315	103	332	8	9	36%	7%	66	-1.1	236/300/388	152	376	15	10	38%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2024 · A	21	49→51	43→50	50→55	46	237/307/351	113	309	11	15	26%	8%	88	+0.4	250/313/394	144	313	14	16	23%	7%	100	+1.3	253/317/409	156	313	15	15	23%	7%	103	+1.2
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	45→46	40→45	55→50	53	211/302/310	100	290	7	16	27%	11%	77	-0.3	227/287/348	121	312	12	11	29%	8%	80	-0.2	232/274/365	133	311	17	8	30%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Evan Van Hoosier 2015 · A	21	47	44→50	56→50	44	229/282/358	129	287	10	10	23%	6%	80	-0.2	230/274/338	108	308	6	9	26%	5%	72	-0.7	232/275/343	110	324	5	10	28%	4%	70	-0.3
✕Luis Torrens 2017 · A	21	45→49	41→50	46→40	49	217/293/309	93	272	8	6	23%	8%	74	-0.6	218/269/313	95	273	7	3	22%	6%	64	-1.3	233/290/382	149	292	18	0	26%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Blaze Alexander 2021 · A	22	46→50	42→50	51→50	42	219/286/327	109	306	9	11	30%	7%	74	-0.5	211/283/339	128	327	14	12	37%	7%	77	-0.3	246/324/371	124	344	12	15	29%	8%	98	+0.8
✕James Triantos 2024 · A	21	51→59	40→45	53→60	46	244/297/337	93	292	7	14	19%	6%	80	-0.2	260/304/360	100	303	7	30	16%	5%	88	+0.4	270/312/373	104	312	8	35	15%	5%	91	+0.6
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	48→58	41→45	50	50	229/297/339	109	271	7	12	18%	8%	81	-0.1	253/311/365	112	307	10	14	20%	7%	92	+0.7	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Aidan Miller 2024 · A	20	49→50	38→50	52→65	47	228/303/310	83	316	4	12	27%	8%	77	-0.3	227/310/359	132	312	11	28	28%	9%	91	+0.7	224/315/364	140	306	12	36	28%	10%	91	+0.5
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Jonathan Galvez 2010 · A	19	43→51	42→50	50→55	51	209/299/315	106	278	8	12	26%	10%	77	-0.3	225/289/347	122	328	11	16	32%	7%	80	-0.1	244/294/364	120	343	10	23	30%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	44→54	39→45	50	42	209/270/300	91	293	6	11	29%	7%	62	-1.4	235/286/340	105	319	10	10	28%	6%	77	-0.3	251/312/338	87	342	8	12	27%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Gavin Cecchini 2015 · A	21	44→54	41→45	48→45	46	213/270/318	105	266	7	7	22%	7%	65	-1.2	256/307/355	99	303	7	5	17%	7%	88	+0.4	265/315/356	91	309	6	4	16%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Corey Toups 2015 · A	22	49→50	40→45	54→50	51	231/309/335	104	297	6	8	23%	9%	85	+0.2	226/287/340	114	308	8	16	28%	7%	78	-0.3	219/280/337	118	305	9	18	29%	6%	72	-0.6

Billy Carlson

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps