Jesus Oliveira

P ACL Royals

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL Royals Ve…	11	0	22	4.91	5.19	17.7%	18.8%	—	K 12.0% · BB 23.4% · FIP 6.66
2025	20	ROKKC	12	0	21	7.40	6.29	16.7%	11.5%	—	K 11.3% · BB 14.3% · FIP 8.22
2026	21	MIX2 levels	20	2	45	6.65	4.73	31.5%	20.2%	—	K 21.8% · BB 24.6% · FIP 6.52
2027PROJ	22	MLBKC	20	0	21	5.93	5.93	21.1%	20.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBKC	20	0	21	5.55	5.41	22.1%	16.7%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJosé Mesa Jr. (age 22) · Hudson Leach (age 22) · Will Varmette (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.93

FIP5.93

K%21.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.1%

Proj IP21

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	2	0	3	12	1	4	0	0%	1.3	8.3%	33.3%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.62	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	2	0	3	12	1	4	0	0%	1.3	8.3%	33.3%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.85	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	22	96	17	18	2	0%	2.0	12.0%	23.4%	-11.4%	2.9%	4.91	6.66	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	22	96	17	18	2	0%	2.0	12.0%	23.4%	-11.4%	2.9%	4.91	6.66	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	22	96	17	18	2	0%	2.0	17.7%	18.8%	-1.0%	2.1%	4.91	5.19	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	0	21	96	16	11	5	0%	1.7	11.3%	14.3%	-3.0%	7.8%	7.40	8.22	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	0	21	96	16	11	5	0%	1.7	11.3%	14.3%	-3.0%	7.8%	7.40	8.22	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	12	0	21	96	16	11	5	0%	1.7	16.7%	11.5%	5.2%	5.2%	7.40	6.29	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	2	45	213	67	43	6	10%	2.2	21.8%	24.6%	-2.8%	3.9%	6.65	6.52	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	2	45	213	67	43	6	10%	2.2	21.8%	24.6%	-2.8%	3.9%	6.65	6.52	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	2	45	213	67	43	6	10%	2.2	31.5%	20.2%	11.3%	2.8%	6.65	4.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	KC	20	0	21	89	19	18	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	20.0%	1.1%	3.1%	5.93	5.93	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	40	0	42	176	39	29	5	0%	1.0	22.1%	16.7%	5.3%	3.0%	5.55	5.41	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	20	0	21	89	20	15	3	0%	1.1	22.1%	16.7%	5.3%	3.0%	5.55	5.41	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	0	21	87	19	14	3	0%	1.0	22.1%	16.7%	5.3%	3.0%	5.55	5.03	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	137	29	0%	1.1	22.1%	16.7%	5.3%	3.0%	5.55	5.03	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		45	2	90	417	70	93	19	4%	2.0	16.8%	22.2%	-5.5%	4.5%	6.20	6.94	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	4	200	927	155	206	41	4%	2.0	16.8%	22.2%	-5.5%	4.5%	6.20	6.94	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Oliveira (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.93	21.1%	20.0%	3.1%	—	5.41	22.1%	5.3%	42	-0.52	—	—	—
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	88
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	87
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	87
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	86
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	86
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	85
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	85
Connor Walsh R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	22	SU	4.76	23.3%	20.7%	1.8%	.288	3.98	21.3%	6.8%	151	-0.78	3.36	266	84
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	84
Miguel Alfonseca R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	20.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.354	5.73	11.6%	-3.8%	56	+0.95	4.19	123	84
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	83
Adilson Peralta R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	21	SU	5.29	20.9%	17.5%	3.2%	.316	5.11	18.7%	3.0%	83	-0.18	3.79	181	83
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	83
Frank Martinez R 2024 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	20.0%	21.5%	3.2%	.268	5.08	16.8%	3.7%	77	-0.82	3.30	135	83
Saul Teran R 2024 · 5.21 FIP	22	SU	5.21	22.4%	18.8%	2.9%	.279	4.40	20.1%	10.7%	84	-0.81	2.28	166	82
Audry Lugo R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	22	SU	4.82	17.6%	15.8%	2.2%	.333	5.76	13.7%	-2.6%	39	+0.94	4.05	113	82
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	82
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	82
Carlos Contreras R 2014 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	20.2%	18.1%	2.0%	.304	4.35	18.4%	5.0%	107	-0.42	4.29	127	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	21.7%	17.8%	1.18	5.68
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*