Samuel Carmona — OGILVIE

Samuel Carmona P DSL Royals Fortuna

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 16 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%19.5%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	3	0	3	12	4	2	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	3.00	2.40	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	3	0	3	12	4	2	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	3.00	2.43	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	3	27	119	26	8	1	27%	2.5	14.9%	8.4%	6.5%	1.2%	7.24	3.56	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	3	27	119	26	8	1	27%	2.5	14.9%	8.4%	6.5%	1.2%	7.24	3.56	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	3	27	119	26	8	1	27%	2.5	21.8%	6.7%	15.1%	0.8%	7.24	2.55	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	2	24	110	12	16	1	18%	2.2	7.4%	18.2%	-10.8%	1.4%	4.81	5.52	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	2	24	110	12	16	1	18%	2.2	7.4%	18.2%	-10.8%	1.4%	4.81	5.52	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	2	24	110	12	16	1	18%	2.2	10.9%	14.5%	-3.6%	0.9%	4.81	4.62	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	10	7	29	126	33	12	1	70%	2.9	17.8%	11.9%	5.9%	1.1%	3.07	3.71	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	10	7	29	126	33	12	1	70%	2.9	17.8%	11.9%	5.9%	1.1%	3.07	3.71	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	10	7	29	126	33	12	1	70%	2.9	26.2%	9.5%	16.7%	0.8%	3.07	2.52	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	KC	15	0	16	68	13	8	2	0%	1.1	19.5%	12.5%	7.0%	2.9%	5.01	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	26	0	27	116	24	13	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	2.9%	4.80	4.71	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	12	0	13	55	11	6	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	2.9%	4.80	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	57	12	6	2	0%	1.0	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	2.9%	4.80	4.33	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	89	30	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	2.9%	4.80	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		35	12	84	367	52	47	4	34%	2.4	14.2%	12.8%	1.4%	1.2%	4.93	4.16	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	29	200	874	124	112	10	34%	2.4	14.2%	12.8%	1.4%	1.2%	4.93	4.16	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Carmona (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	19.5%	12.5%	2.9%	—	4.71	20.8%	9.6%	27	-0.30	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	91
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	82
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	81
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	81
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	81
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	80
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SW	4.25	18.3%	14.1%	1.7%	.359	4.06	20.9%	10.6%	251	-0.19	3.67	386	79
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	79
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	79
Daniel Hudson R 2009 · 5.06 FIP	22	SW	5.06	17.1%	11.0%	3.7%	.232	3.42	19.4%	13.6%	363	-1.64	1.68	850	79
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	79
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	78
Adam Bernero R 2000 · 4.15 FIP	23	SW	4.15	14.2%	8.5%	2.1%	.283	4.88	14.2%	6.3%	247	+0.73	3.45	376	78
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	78
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	78
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	78
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	78
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	78
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	77