Keegan Zinn

P Hill City Howlers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKCLE	13	7	33	9.82	4.62	28.1%	15.6%	—	K 19.1% · BB 19.5% · FIP 6.40
2025	20	MIX2 levels	21	7	52	7.10	3.95	21.4%	16.7%	—	K 14.9% · BB 20.5% · FIP 4.88
2026	21	ACLE	33	0	60	7.35	5.15	30.4%	18.0%	—	K 22.5% · BB 21.2% · FIP 6.60
2027PROJ	22	MLBCLE	36	0	38	5.93	5.93	21.4%	19.8%	-0.6
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCLE	27	0	28	5.55	5.41	22.3%	16.6%	-0.3
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBCLE	38	0	40	5.22	5.06	23.0%	14.4%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsWill Varmette (age 21) · James Acuna (age 23) · José Mesa Jr. (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.93

FIP5.93

K%21.4%

BB%19.8%

K-BB%1.6%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	2	2	2	13	1	6	0	100%	0.8	7.7%	46.2%	-38.5%	0.0%	37.80	8.30	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	2	2	2	13	1	6	0	100%	0.8	7.7%	46.2%	-38.5%	0.0%	37.80	12.70	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	13	7	33	160	45	25	5	54%	2.5	19.1%	19.5%	-0.4%	4.4%	9.82	6.40	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	13	7	33	160	45	25	5	54%	2.5	19.1%	19.5%	-0.4%	4.4%	9.82	6.40	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	13	7	33	160	45	25	5	54%	2.5	28.1%	15.6%	12.5%	3.1%	9.82	4.62	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	7	52	252	54	42	2	33%	2.5	14.9%	20.5%	-5.6%	0.8%	7.10	4.88	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	7	52	252	54	42	2	33%	2.5	14.9%	20.5%	-5.6%	0.8%	7.10	4.88	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	7	52	252	54	42	2	33%	2.5	21.4%	16.7%	4.8%	0.8%	7.10	3.95	—
2026	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	33	0	60	289	88	52	11	0%	1.8	22.5%	21.2%	1.3%	4.9%	7.35	6.60	—
2026	21	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	33	0	60	289	88	52	11	0%	1.8	22.5%	21.2%	1.3%	4.9%	7.35	6.60	—
2026	21	A RAW	Hill City Howlers	33	0	60	289	88	52	11	0%	1.8	30.4%	18.0%	12.5%	3.8%	7.35	5.15	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CLE	36	0	38	160	34	32	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	19.8%	1.6%	3.2%	5.93	5.93	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	53	0	56	236	53	39	7	0%	1.1	22.3%	16.6%	5.8%	3.1%	5.55	5.41	-0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	55	0	57	242	56	35	7	0%	1.0	23.0%	14.4%	8.5%	3.1%	5.22	5.06	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	27	0	28	118	26	20	4	0%	1.0	22.3%	16.6%	5.8%	3.1%	5.55	5.41	-0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	38	0	40	169	39	24	5	0%	1.1	23.0%	14.4%	8.5%	3.1%	5.22	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	68	285	65	44	9	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.3%	7.4%	3.1%	5.35	4.82	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	130	27	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.3%	7.4%	3.1%	5.35	4.82	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		69	16	147	714	134	150	23	23%	2.1	18.8%	21.0%	-2.3%	3.3%	8.16	5.98	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	22	200	974	183	205	32	23%	2.1	18.8%	21.0%	-2.3%	3.3%	8.16	5.98	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keegan Zinn (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.93	21.4%	19.8%	3.2%	—	5.23	22.7%	7.2%	113	-0.70	—	—	—
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	88
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	86
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	86
Connor Walsh R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	22	SU	4.76	23.3%	20.7%	1.8%	.288	3.98	21.3%	6.8%	151	-0.78	3.36	266	83
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	83
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	83
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	82
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	82
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	81
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	81
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	81
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	81
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	81
Ryan Cardona R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	22	SW	5.07	20.9%	17.7%	2.7%	.274	4.27	18.5%	4.3%	292	-0.80	3.62	367	81
Miguel Alfonseca R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	20.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.354	5.73	11.6%	-3.8%	56	+0.95	4.19	123	81
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	81
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	81
Audry Lugo R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	22	SU	4.82	17.6%	15.8%	2.2%	.333	5.76	13.7%	-2.6%	39	+0.94	4.05	113	80
Frank Martinez R 2024 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	20.0%	21.5%	3.2%	.268	5.08	16.8%	3.7%	77	-0.82	3.30	135	80
Adilson Peralta R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	21	SU	5.29	20.9%	17.5%	3.2%	.316	5.11	18.7%	3.0%	83	-0.18	3.79	181	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	51	22.3%	16.6%	1.21	5.52
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*